Tuesday, January 17, 2017

According to History (which is a Terrible Indicator) the Market Should go Up 18.5% by Year End

As always the past does not predict the future. However if it did we are going to be sitting on a pile of cash by year end.
What happens when the first five days of January finish higher and the month of January finishes higher during the first year of a presidential cycle? Good things!
During nine instances in which both the first five days of January and the month as a whole finished higher during the first year of a presidential cycle, stocks have closed the year in positive territory 8 times.
The average annual return? 18.5%.
I'll take half of that and be very happy for the year.

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