North Korea's nuclear threats are grabbing the world's attention. But if the North were to strike South Korea today, it would probably first try to savage Seoul with the men and missiles of its huge conventional army.
The attack might well begin with artillery and missiles capable of hitting South Korea's capital with little or no warning. North Korea's vast cadre of commandos could try to infiltrate and cause chaos while the South tried to respond.
What the North would have to gamble with is the resolve of Obama to continue fighting even if there are massive casualties. It will be safe to say that 10,000+ people might die in the first few hours if Seoul is specifically targeted by the North. Also Tokyo might get its fair share of missiles lobbed their way as well.
I think Obama might dither with the UN instead of committing everything in a counterattack. If that happens the North might have a chance since the US would be the only power that could decimate their forces in a few days and carry out an invasion of the North.
What Kim Jong Il would be doing is testing the backbone of Obama and the Democratic Congress since the loss of life in any counterattack would make Iraq look like a fist fight. Would the Dems have the stomach to carry out a protracted land war in North Korea? Would the US Military be able to face off against a million man army with 7 million reserves while still fighting in 2 wars in other parts of the world?
Then all Kim would have to count on China and Russia doing nothing directly because they don't want millions of refugees pouring into their countries if the North is invaded. If China and Russia go to the UN option instead of invading the North then I figure they would be able to fight for about week before they have to go to the UN bargaining table. Once there they might be able to call the shots knowing that no one will have the will to stop them or reverse their gains.