Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Smartmoney Says Play the Games not the Stocks

I guess they are right for the most part since many of these companies actually trade on speculation of how well their well publicized game release schedules will actually do. It isn't like Biotech where you have to guess what the FDA might do. These games for the most part come out on certain days without question.
But the "BioShock" bounce begs the question: Are there any other
upcoming releases that the market hasn't fully priced in yet?


On a fundamental basis, the answer is probably no. "This is a group
that trades ahead of information," says Todd Mitchell, an analyst with Kaufman
Bros. "The people who trade these stocks are totally focused on the lineup and
its relative strength, so it usually gets priced in ahead of the actual news."

That there even was a BioShock bounce still shows that analysts don't price everything into their views. Take-Two may even be helped by BioShock perhaps launching a franchise. I'm not sure if any of these analysts predicted that this game would do as well as it has. So there are always surprises in the gaming field and the early launch of a new console war creates those surprises.

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