The New European Status Quo?

I was thinking about this and came to one possible outcome if the EU does dissolve. I think that it may fracture into two parts, an Old Europe and a New Europe. Ol' Rummy is starting to look like savant here.

Old Europe will probably keep the Euro and form some kind of loose confederation of the nanny states. They will probably greatly restrict visas to anyone from Eastern Europe, Turkey, and the Middle East. They will continue to have crushing taxes and idle folk that sit around and mooch off of the government. Of course they will be virulently anti-American and oppose us at every step. Unfortunately, they will age, and a demographic crisis will hit them square in the face. At which time their nations will probably go bankrupt and turn into another 3rd world.

At first, New Europe will probably have a tough time going it on their own. In time though, their vibrant, growing, and young societies, tempered by the tragedy of Soviet times, (and bolstered by go-go capitalism) will become the new China or India. Their wealth will start to pile up as more and more money is invested in them rather than the increasingly shaky Old Europe. They will then push ahead with that capital, help struggling states like Turkey, and become the "New Lions of Europe."

They could then take both a renewed and rebuilt Iraq and Afganistan, a democratic Russia, a reformed Syria, a mullahless Iran, and maybe even a peaceful Palestine and Israel into its sphere of influence. They may even ditch the European distinction and call themselves the Eastern Alliance or maybe the Eastern Coalition or something. This group will probably be pro-American but oppose us at certain turns depending on how the Muslim bloc votes on things.

This new Eastern Alliance would be a serious challenge to the US in economic wealth and output. Their populations are young, they are very well educated, they control oil wealth, and other natural resources. America on the other hand is staring down the barrel of its own demographic crisis. We will turn increasingly into a nanny state supporting our aging baby-boomers. At the same time there will be less and less productive members of our workforce. Eventually, we will have to encourage immigration from Mexico just to keep our workforce productive. Whatever the case, we will end up passing the torch to the very same nations we helped save from dictatorship and usher into democracy just a few decades before. I guess that would make a fitting epitaph to the so-called American Empire.