Monday, December 21, 2009

Law of Unintended Consequences: Health Care Edition

Now this would be an interesting thing to come to pass as a result of ObamaCare.

The insurance lobby is already so powerful that Democrats couldn't get the public option through now - what makes them think they'll be able to later, after they've given insurers 30 million additional customers, and required every last American to do business with them? The insurance companies are going to be to the 21st century what Standard Oil was to the 19th.

I can't think of a single thing in American History that 100% of Americans must buy or they will face a fine. Suddenly health insurance becomes one of those things. There will be a scramble to qualify so you don't get fined and end up going to jail for being a "non insurance buyer/tax evader."

I'm sure the insurance companies will make that point abundantly clear. I can picture the ad copy "Buy UnitedHealth's New Catastrophic Plus with optional Snowboarding rider or Uncle Sam will send you to Jail!" with a picture of a young guy in prison khaki's looking fearfully at a huge prison inmate intent on no-good.

The more I look at this ObamaCare bill the more I think Big Health Insurance will be the biggest beneficiary. That is why I have been long United Health since the public option was killed. It is a case of buying health insurance or ending up shanked in the prison library by an Aryan Nation member. (Well, more like trading tax advice with Bernie Maddoff but you never know.) Now that should be "accretive to earnings" to say the very least. The 2% bump and a 52 week high on UNH today just proves this point in spades.

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