Tuesday, July 28, 2009

ObamaCare's Economic Fallout: The Keynesian

This is a great article talking about the uncertainty that ObamaCare is bringing to small and large businesses alike and how that uncertainty is slowing down the Recovery.

Prudent businessmen and prudent individuals alike have thus been given an additional motive for hoarding cash rather than investing and consuming. No one knows how his financial situation will be affected by health reform, if it is is enacted. There is enormous and I think justified distrust of the government's ability to design and execute so ambitious a program as the Administration and the congressional leadership envisage.

The problem too is that the Obama people are blasting uncertainty into the stratosphere. Consumers and producers already have to deal with the possibility of cap-and-tax and whatever unintended consequences that could still come out of the failed stimulus.

Plus, we are looking forward to massive inflation and debt loads in the future that people know are going to be huge but are uncertain how huge. So companies hold cash and fail to hire workers and we have a jobless recovery.

One irony is that if Obama simply waited until we were coming out of the recovery (2010 - 2011) things would be better and it would have been easier to pass his social agenda. Instead he jumped the gun and tried to cram everything down our throats. Now all of his bets are on a recovery in 2010 - 2011 that needs to be pretty robust. A jobless malaise will make him a one termer.

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