Russia Invading Georgia: a Strategy Game Tactic

It seems like they are using the Allied Casus Belli Tactic to me according to this.

But a senior U.S. official, who spoke on condition he not be named, said the outlook was "grim" and that Russia had planned its moves in Georgia for some time.

"This appears to be a full invasion of Georgia with an end result uncertain and an objective that is not clear but appears to be aggressive in nature," said the official. "Words like invasion should not be used lightly but this is an invasion."

I can tell you what the end result might be. The Russians are counting on the West to do nothing to support Georgia and then Moscow takes over the capital and deposes Saakashvili. They feel they have a valid Casus Belli when Georgia attacked South Ossetia which is their de facto satellite. It seems that the Russians were ready to roll tanks into Georgia in a few days so they were merely waiting for spark and they are executing the tactic now.

The West won't do anything so Russia would be able to eliminate NATO influence right on their doorstep at little cost to them. They also show the rest of their neighbors that Russian tanks trump Western diplomacy. Their neighbors are now forced to join the Russian Sphere of Influence (and thus ignore the West) or they will roll the tanks on you.

Putin has gone to a tactic that I have used in strategy video games like Victoria: A Place in the Sun or Europa Universalis time and time again. Goad the weaker nation into attacking your ally and then throw your entire might at the enemy nation before your ally can sue for peace.

You are counting on the other Great Powers to be intimidated into not escalating the war. They will not risk a Great War just to prevent you from land grabbing neighboring weaker nations outside their sphere of influence.

One example of this is when you attack Egypt with the Ottoman Empire. You get Egypt to attack one of your neighbors and then quickly ally with that neighbor. You then have your fast cavalry overwhelm every province in Egypt including the capital before your ally is able to sue for peace. Then you get to dictate terms to Egypt and grab whatever parts of their nation that you want. You can even reward your attacked ally with parts of Egypt to strengthen them.

Russia is counting on the speed of their attack to be faster then the condemnation of the West. They have already bisected the country by taking the East/West Highway so it is just a matter of time. Now they might move on the capital and make the Georgian government fall. My money is on Russia going just short of this and instead decimating the Georgian army as a lesson to the world. Russia will show that they cannot be trifled with when it comes to their "border security" and weaker nations cannot mess around in their sphere of influence.