This is an interesting article about who might be next on Ivan's plate.
Moscow has both a strong military presence and broad-based popular support in Transnistria and Ukraine's Crimean peninsula, which Russia ceded to its "Socialist brother" in 1954.
Transnistria is the eastern part of Moldova which abuts the Ukraine so it wouldn't seem like much of an important area. However it might be used as a proxy power in a possible Russo-Ukrainian war. Transnistrian auxiliaries/terrorist groups can be maintained by Moscow similar to how Hezbollah is maintained in by Iran. If there is some kind of conflict in the region then these groups can destabilize the government of Moldova if that country is actually granted NATO membership.
The capital of Moldova (Chisinau) is only a few kilometers from the Transnistrian "border" region so Russian backed rebels could be in their capital before world opinion condemns the move in "the strongest possible terms." If the Moldovan government falls and is replaced by a pro-Russian military dictatorship then the Russians could land peacekeeping troops and extend their sphere of influence right into the heart of New Europe.
The Russians grabbing the Crimea would be a no-brainer if there were a Russo-Ukrainian conflict. If the Ukraine entered NATO then the Crimea will probably be peaceably detached and pro-Moscow Crimean government will probably be formed. The Russians will then get a satellite power, their Black Sea Fleet base back, access to their old Soviet era vacation spots, and lots of nice beachfront land. These two places offer lots of upside for Moscow with only a little international condemnation and maybe some Western indifference depending on how they play things.
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