But I have a feeling what will really happen after the Gaza pullout is close to scenario number 2. The Palestinians are on the verge of winning true concessions from Israel here. The door to a good future is wide open but it can slam shut in an instant.
One bomb belt and the cycle of violence will continue for decades to come. This time the Israelis will not be giving any quarter because Sharon will be thrown out on his ass. The hardliners will have a free hand against Palestine because the Israeli people will feel betrayed (and rightly so.) The Israelis will have caused all sorts of pain to their own people and got nothing but the same from the ungrateful Palestinians. There will probably never be such a thing as "land for peace" ever again.
On the other hand, if the Palestinian Authority can restrain the militants then the sky is the limit for their people. Their nation will be welcomed to the college of nations with open arms by the Frances of the world. Lots of ready money will pour in (and not just from Muslim nations) to help them rebuild and improve their lives. Maybe the Israelis will pull out of the West Bank and East Jerusalem too if given enough incentive to do so. You never know until the Palestinians will accept "yes" for an answer.
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