Friday, December 30, 2016

2016 Predictions a Look Back

Well here is my yearly look back at the Crystal Ball of Clairvoyance from last year. What really happened in blue.


1. Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump in a landslide victory. The Donald wins only the southern states but does not carry any of the key battleground states and loses Florida quite handily. He only gets about 9% of the Hispanic vote and it turns into a referendum on immigration. The rise of the Hispanic voter becomes the key issue in politics this year. The GOP barely holds onto the Senate but retains the House with only a few notable losses.  
Wow I strait up missed this one with Trump beating her fairly handily in the electoral but losing the worthless popular vote. The Hispanic vote didn't seem to matter at all with their turnout down. I did get the GOP holding the Senate and House though.

2. The GOP Congress finally gets some things done now that Paul Ryan is in charge. They send a bunch of symbolic bills that are defeated by a lame-duck Obama. The reactionary wing of the GOP calls for Ryan's ouster by the end of the year.
Some symbolic bills were sent in but it seems that they didn't do much of anything. 2017 will be a far different story.

3. Obamacare is dealt a blow from Democrats who try to alter it after hearing it from their constituents who are having trouble with high co-pays. Insurance companies mostly pull out of the exchanges and the price of health insurance does not go down by any appreciable margin.
Got this one as co-pays go sky high and health insurance companies flee the exchanges en mass.

4. Obama becomes very active at first but peters out as he takes many foreign trips. Almost all of the news will be about the Election and he quietly works well with the Ryan Congress. Trump and Hillary suck the air out of the room and Obama's ego is bruised.
Obama did take a few foreign trips but I think he will be very active in the last weeks of office as he grasps for a legacy, any legacy. Trump and Hillary did suck all the air out of the room.

5. Hillary is indited but the FBI does not pursue the case until after the election. She pretty much gets out of any blame for the illegal email server and it becomes a non-issue after the election.
She wasn't indited and it will become a non-issue after the election.

6. The US becomes slightly less partisan by the end of the year with both parties staying away from the extremes after Trump implodes.
Hmm America might become less partisan going forward but I doubt it.


1. ISIS starts to collapse as recruits leave the fold and the bombing starts to get results. The Iraqi army pushes ISIS out of Iraq and regains a firm grip on their country. However, ISIS becomes even stronger outside of the remnants of the "Caliphate" as young radical Islamists fight the West from the comfort of their own homes. Several more terrorist attacks are planned and carried out but nothing as big as the Paris attacks happens in 2016.
Got this one mostly right as ISIS is almost out of Iraq. However, they are new arguably stronger because as the German attack shows it just takes a radical and a truck to cause mayhem. Luckily there was nothing as big as Paris but Nice came close.

2. The Chinese economy slows but does not enter a recession. A mix of stimulus and number fudging carries them throughout the year. The Chinese stock market gyrates wildly but ends the year down only 2% from the start of the year.
Close but the Chinese stock market got clobbered in the early part of the year and basically ended the year near where it started.

3. Oil prices stay low throughout the year but spike briefly as the Saudi/Iranian crisis looms. There is much posturing and sabre rattling but there is no outright warfare between the two. However the Sunni-Shia divide becomes the defining characteristic between the Great Powers going forward. The Sunni side is championed by the Saudis and the gulf states and Iran champions the Shiite powers. Both lead states are backed with petro-dollars and both now have a free hand due to the Iranian nuclear deal. A clandestine nuclear program is found in Saudi Arabia and an arms race begins.
Oil prices stayed low, went lower, and then spiked. Also the Saudi vs Iran thin simmers but hasn't blowen over yet. No clandestine nukes found in Saudi Arabia as of this time.

4. Russian power finally extends into the Mediterranean as Syria falls into their sphere of influence. By the end of the year the Syrian war becomes the "Russian Vietnam" with advisers training and re-arming Assads troops. Russian MIGs fly more sorties then the Western powers combined. Assad's troops push back ISIS and retake much of Syria while a massive Russian presence looms in the Levant.
Hit this one right on the head. The Russians now have a Syrian puppet after turning Aleppo into Berlin circa 1945. They also get to dictate terms in any peace talks going forward. Syrian adventurism is working out for Putin so far.

Economic Predictions:

S&P 500: 2300 2241 (close more or less)

Dow: 18100 19788 (wow way off)
Nasdaq: 5700 5385 (hmm shot too high)

Crude Oil: $65 58.57 (I bet we see $60 next year though)
Gold: $1200 $1151 (again a bit too high)
EUR/Dollar: 1.24 1.05 (big miss)
10 Yr Bond: 2.54 2.45 (close again)

Sports Predictions:
NFL: Arizona Cardinals Denver Broncos

NBA: Golden State Warriors Cleveland Cavs
MLB: San Fransisco Giants Chicago Cubs! (the end times near)
NHL: Montreal Canadiens Pittsburgh Penguins
Premier League: Arsenal Leicester City!?
Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund (probably Bayern Munich though) yeah Bayen
NCAA Football: Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama Crimson Tide
NCAA Basketball: Kansas Villanova!

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