Could the Taliban Take over Pakistan?

I sure hope not. But there seems to be just 65 miles separating the Taliban from Islamabad.

On Wednesday a local Taliban militia crossed from the Swat Valley - where a February cease-fire allowed the implementation of strict Islamic, or Shari'a, law - into the neighboring Buner district, which is just a few hours drive from Islamabad (65 miles, separated by a mountain range, as the crow flies).

So you could say that a mountain range (and not a vast army or even a river) now separates the capital of a nuclear armed nation from falling to Islamic hardliners. Forget about Iranian nukes because Pakistani nukes will be much scarier in the hands of the Taliban. Especially if they are aimed at our troops in Afghanistan.

One medium ranged missile fired by Taliban militiaman could wipe out an entire NATO division or sink an entire carrier group. Just having a few warheads slip out of the country will be enough to give the world a headache for decades to come.

At the same time Pakistan seems more afraid that Baluchistan might declare independence with the help of India.

Also on Wednesday, a top adviser to Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani made an explosive announcement accusing a long-simmering separatist movement in the province of Baluchistan of being sponsored by archenemy India and Afghanistan. The mysterious deaths of several Baluch leaders over the past few weeks have renewed demands for Baluch independence from the nation of Pakistan.

This might be paranoia but I can see the Pakistani point of view. Historically buffer states are very important when two nations are arch-enemies. That is why Poland kept getting taken over and built up in the course of European history. There seems to be no hard evidence that India is doing this though.

However I can see the advantage India would get from creating an allied buffer state out of part of Pakistan. That is especially true if Islamabad falls to the Taliban and Baluchistan declares independence. This would give India a chance to surge troops into Baluchistan as a "peacekeeping" force and maybe even invade Pakistan in the same vein.

Hell, even the US would gain from the creation of an Indian-allied Baluchistan because India would probably let us pour troops and material into the region to hunt for Al-Quida scumbags. Plus the Indian Army might be more willing to pair up with the US to fight against the Taliban as well. The Indians don't have that long association and aid of the Taliban that Pakistan has had in the past. The Indians might not have any objections with us flying Predators deep into Baluchistan to help them kill off Taliban leaders. In any case, Hillary's job has just gotten *much* harder.