That remains our outlook today in our final forecast of the year. Clinton is a 71 percent favorite to win the election according to our polls-only model and a 72 percent favorite according to our polls-plus model. (The models are essentially the same at this point, so they show about the same forecast.) This reflects a meaningful improvement for Clinton in the past 48 hours as the news cycle has taken a final half-twist in her favor. Her chances have increased from about 65 percent.Whatever methodology he used to come up with these numbers is flawed because that is a wide miss. I think the polling method in general needs a total overhaul because they are 0 for 3 in the last few big events. Polls had Romney winning in 2012, Brexit, and now Trump winning the election. I'm not sure what the fix is but it cannot go on in its current form because it leads to a 70 to 30 call for the candidate that lost handily.
Wednesday, November 09, 2016
Well Nate Silver Has some Egg on His Face: Polling has Met Its Waterloo #TrumpCutMyTaxes
Well I guess it is time to totally ignore polling going forward.