Tuesday, January 24, 2012

It Seems a Greek Default Wouldn't be so Bad

I guess since it doesn't come as a surprise and markets are ready for it then it can be dealt with.

The International Swaps and Derivatives Association says the total net exposure of market participants who have sold CDS credit protection on Greek sovereign debt was about $3.7 billion as of Oct. 21, 2011. At this point, the group estimates that more than 90 percent of Greek CDSs have been collateralized. In other words, most of the insurance has already been paid. 

Also there seems to be $53 billion in Greek Debt maturing in 2012 which will probably get wiped out. Anything else coming due in the future should be okay since Greece will run a surplus with the new austerity bill in place. Then the EU can move to boot them out of the Union and put some serious debt to GDP ratio laws in place going forward. Maybe if it gets too high they will put them on membership watch.

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