Monday, July 07, 2008

Case By Case Analysis of McCain's Economic Plan

First of all he needs to fix this section so that is isn't so damn long winded. I bet that I may be one of the few voters that is going to read through this whole mess. McCain should either use bullet points or separate things into distinct pages grouped by what he intends to do to fix the economy. For instance have something like "McCains Plan to Help With Higher Living Costs" with a click-through. In any case here is a breakdown:

1. Helping Americans Confront Higher Living Costs: He intends a gas tax holiday, stop filling the SPR, ending Ethanol subsidies, tariff barriers and sugar quotas drive up food prices and hurt Americans.

This seems like a pretty decent populous message but it is seems to be shooting pretty low when things really need to change. It kind of feels that the McCain camp has no idea of what government should do to confront higher living costs and just put some populous stuff up there and hoped for the best. We need nuclear plants, alternative energy, and shouldn't be using corn to power our cars. Nuff said.

2. Helping Americans With The Housing Crisis: Create a new HOME plan that allows Americans to trade in their home loan for a new FHA Home loan.

It sounds like a sound plan but the eligibility requirement seems pretty onerous though.

Holders of a non-conventional mortgage taken after 2005 who live in their home (primary residence only); can prove creditworthiness at the time of the original loan; are either delinquent, in arrears on payments, facing a reset or otherwise demonstrate that they will be unable to continue to meet their mortgage obligations; and can meet the terms of a new 30-year fixed-rate mortgage on the existing home.

So this person has to provide creditworthiness at the time of the loan? It would seem logical that quite a few people that took out a non-conventional loan in 2005-2007 did so because their credit was not good enough (or their income wasn't high enough) to qualify for that 30 year fixed rate loan. Or they just bought too much house and can't afford the payments. I guess these people lose their homes.

Also you have to wonder if this person was delinquent or facing a reset or whatever then they probably couldn't qualify for a new 30 year fixed rate mortgage since they now have a damaged credit rating. In any case he doesn't describe what would happen to a person who took out a loan that is over the FHA limit of $260K. Would this person get a partial refinance or how would that work?

3. Cutting Taxes For The Middle Class: McCain will repeal the AMT and double the personal exemption for dependants

Both things do not affect me so I really don't care either way. I know the Alternative Minimum Tax is dreaded by many upper middle class Americans (or even families with two wage earners) so that tax should be abolished. The other cut will put more money in the pockets of families and I guess that is a good thing.

4. Pro-Growth Tax Policy: He will keep taxes low on entrepreneurs, keep the current income and investment tax rates, get rid of estate tax, require a 3/5th majority to raise taxes, keep dividend and investment tax rates, allow companies to deduct the cost of equipment investment.

This seems pretty strait forward and would be what I would base quite a bit of my support on. I think something that is risky like collecting a capital gain should not be taxed at all. You might lose your entire investment if things turn sour or you aren't careful. Why does the government deserve a cut of my risk? I think something called the "death tax" needs to be repealed on general principal. While the 3/5 majority would work on paper but it seems like it would be unconstitutional. I think the deduct the equipment thing would be a great boon to some businesses and would encourage capital spending that might actually hasten a recovery.

5. Tax Cuts On American Employers: John McCain Will Reduce The Federal Corporate Tax Rate To 25 Percent From 35 Percent.

This may be a difficult row to hoe with all that anti-corporation rhetoric going on. Maybe tie this to a public works initiative. For instance if a company gives a certain certain percentage of their net income or products to charity then they would qualify for the lower rate. The Department of Human Services or some other agency would be in charge of seeing if the company qualifies for the so called "helpful corporations tax rate."

So for instance Eli Lilly gave away $ x-billion in free drugs to inner city clinics then they would get a 25% rate instead of a 35% rate. Make giving to charities a financial imperative that actually acts in the shareholders interest. Then corporate responsibility would translate directly into increasing the bottom line. Hell, the SEC could even put this into the 10Q with a line that had the amount and sizes of charitable acts that triggered the 25% tax rate.

6. Pro-Innovation Tax Cuts: McCain will ban internet taxes, prohibit new cellular phone taxes, and establish Permanent Tax Credit Equal To 10 Percent Of Wages Spent On R&D.

This seems like a pretty good idea but that last one seems kind of needlessly complicated to me. I guess it is for companies and should incentivize them to spend more on R&D. I'm not sure why it is based on wages and not total dollar expenditure. I guess it is to encourage companies to either pay their scientists more or perhaps increase R&D head count.

7. Retirement Tax Cut: John McCain Will Act To Lower Medicare Premiums.

Of course he doesn't say how he will pay for this. I guess though spending decreases or something.

8. A Real Choice For Simpler Taxes: It will give Americans the choice of staying under the old system or switching to a new system with two tax rates and a "generous" deduction.

This seems like a good idea but the IRS would have to build on another "simple system" tax arm in order to process a completely new type of tax form. Also would this system bring in less or more revenue? It will also crate a cottage industry of tax pundits advocating one plan over the other for a given tax payers financial situation.

9. Reforming Washington Eliminating Wasteful Spending: John McCain Will Stop Earmarks, Pork-Barrel Spending, And Waste.

This whole part should be in a totally different page and just linked to the main economic plan. They should also site some of the bills that McCain labels as pork and who issued them. I think McCain needs to hire some web people who know about ease of web-site usage.

Basically he wants an line-item veto so he can cut out the pork and reduce earmarks. However he doesn't provide a linked-to example on what he deems pork. I heartily applaud him for it but I'm not sure if a line-item veto is constitutional or not.

10. John McCain Has The Leadership And Courage To Make The Right Spending Choices. He will basically balance the budget.

This seems like a very laudable goal if he can actually achieve it. I however think that as long as we are fighting two hot wars in Iraq and Afghanistan we would have a hell of a time balancing anything with our economy going so slow. It was easy for Clinton to do because we had freed up that Cold War money and rode a massive tax boom due to the Internet Bubble. McCain has two hot wars, an economic downturn, the subprime mess, a banking mess, as well as insane gas prices killing consumer spending to worry about. Balancing the budget may be too much to ask.

11. Eliminate Broken Government Programs. The federal government itself admits that one in five programs do not perform.Reform Our Civil Service System To Promote Accountability And Good Performance In Our Federal Workforce. Eliminating Earmarks, Wasteful Subsidies And Pork-Barrel Spending. Reform Procurement Programs And Cut Wasteful Spending In Defense And Non-Defense Programs.

This seems like a good idea as well. However he talked about earmarks and cutting pork in issue 9 above. This is where he should put his actual plan for overhauling every agency that he deems "broken" (if he has a plan) and what concrete fixes he plans to make on those departments. Put it under the title of "The Government if Broken! I'm the Repairman! Here's what I'm going to do." with a picture of him rolling up his sleeves or perhaps wearing a tool belt.

12. Budgetary Reform To Give Tax Cuts A Fair Chance: John McCain Will Reform Budgeting To Treat Equally Spending And Taxes And To Stop Damaging Tax Hikes

A lot of funny double talk in this statement. I think this section should be rewritten because it seriously reads like gibberish. It seems to be something about reforming the budgeting process by taking tax cuts off of the books or something. It is just Beltway nonsense that regular Americans don't care about.

13. Reforming Entitlement Programs For The 21st Century: He will Reform Social Security, control Medicate Growth, Cut Prescription Drugs to the Rich.

This is basically private accounts which actually kicks massive ass. In fact I would love it if they poured my Social Security money directly into my 401K so I can manage it myself. There are no concrete plans to his Medicare reform it is just platitudes. He promises to do something about premiums rising so fast but doesn't say what. The prescription drug cut for rich dudes is a no brainer issue as well.

14. Promoting Trade and Competitiveness: John McCain Will Lower Barriers To Trade and make American workers more competitive:

He wants a strong dollar and a whole bunch of new trade deals to "even the global playing field." I just don't understand the Dems opposition to free trade sometimes. If you make a Colombian person richer you create a new consumer that will eat American Taco Bell, watch American DVDs, and shower with Axe Bodywash.

Of course that Colombian will be replacing a low skill job that could go to an American. But maybe that job could seriously help a third world person get out of a third world situation. Even a low skilled American worker has a better lot in life then many Colombians. I thought the Dems were all about helping the people of the world. I guess that was the JFK Democratic party.

Also McCains plans to make Americans more competitive seems like more platitudes and amounts to nothing concrete. If he had a plan to send every American that can't afford it to a trade school or get them a college degree then it would be an actual plan. However McCain just has some vague ideas on this.

15. Reforming The Unemployment Insurance (UI) System: John McCain Believes We Should Have A Single, Seamless Approach To Job Transition Assistance. John McCain Will Reform The UI System So That A Portion Of Each Worker's Unemployment Insurance Tax Is Deposited Into A Lost Earnings Buffer Account (LEB). John McCain Will Reform Training Programs To Provide Quick Assistance To Workers Seeking New Skills. John McCain Will Provide Special, Targeted Assistance For Older Workers.

Now this is some actual meat buried at the very end of this mountain of poorly presented ideas. This LEB seems like some kind of fallback account for people that lose their jobs and can actually be retained if they get another job quickly. Seems like a good idea but who is going to manage it?
I wonder how close this LEB will be to the 6 months of full pay that people say they need to have in liquid savings if you lose your job. In any case this will put a nice buffer in place for people that are living paycheck to paycheck so they don't have to worry about getting the axe. Too bad this great idea is buried at the end where noone is going to read it.

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