Monday, April 07, 2008

Wyeth and Elan may have a $10 billion Alzheimer Blockbuster

At least if leaving the conflict-of-interest off of the test that they paid for doesn't come back to haunt them. The sciene however may be good and people are saying that this is the most advanced form of thereapy yet devised.

AAB-001 is probably the most advanced product for Alzheimer’s, Jenner explains. And we’re going to get information over the next two months that will tell us about the probability of its success in Phase 3 trials.
The market is excited because there are approximately 7 million Alzheimer’s patients in the US and Western Europe. If only 1 million of those individuals get on this therapy at $10,000/ year that’s a 10 billion dollar drug!


Wyeth is down in the dumps with only about 6 points above its 52 week low and trading at a 13 P/E. If the Phase 3 data is good and they get this testing matter turns out to be just an oversight and nothing outright shady then the stock should be at a new high before too long. Elan may have even more upside since they are still a pretty small player and seem to still be in that go-go growth phase.

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