But the number that really caught our attention is the new "GDP Now" figure put out by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank. That number uses data, as they come in,to make real-time estimates for near-term GDP growth.
It's not perfect. But in the first quarter, GDP Now estimates were way below the Wall Street consensus by two full percentage points or more. But its final forecast of 0.1% growth came closest to the real number.
So with Wall Street again expecting a pickup in the second quarter — the consensus calls for 3%-plus growth — what does GDP Now see? An anemic 0.8% GDP gain. That estimate, if again correct, may mean the U.S. is falling into recession before the Fed even raises rates.
Wednesday, May 06, 2015
Growth Slowing to a Crawl
We may have had a contraction in Q1 and maybe an anemic Q2.