1. The Democrats will be ushered out of office in large numbers but it will not be as bad as the Contract With America Rout in 1994. Harry Reid will lose in Nevada but Dodds will still stay on in Connecticut. Although ill-health will have him retire in the next few years and a special election will be held. Blanche Lincoln will also lose her job as well. Democrats will also lose Obama and Biden's old seats.
I didn't do too badly on this one. I had the Dems out in large numbers and the 1994 included a switchover in the Senate so I was close. Reid won but Dodd left due to ill health. Lincoln lost and the Dems lost Obama's old seat but not Bidens. If the GOP ran a decent candidate who wasn't a former witch/nut job they would have won it easily.
2. Health Insurance Reform passes but is widely hated by many Americans. It will be an albatross around the Democratic neck for decades. The insurance mandate will be struck down by the Supreme Court as unconstitutional. Insurance will become even more pricey then before.
This one was spot on. Americans hate Obamacare with special relish. The insurance mandate has been struck down by a lower court and it will move to the Supreme Court before too long. Plus insurance going up was a perfect pick.
3. Cap and Trade will be a spectacular failure with coal state Democrats coming out against it. Climate Change will start to recede from national consciousness and the Mexico climate conference will be a back page story that mostly mentions protester violence.
Cap and Trade was a terrible bomb and is so politically unpalatable it will probably fail in any form going forward. Climate Change is still lurking in the background but it is no longer a big deal to most Americans. Even the Germans and Brits are starting to cool toward it. The Mexico climate conference was a back page story but was luckily violence free.
4. Much of the bloom will be off of the Obama rose as he is considered even more Carter-like by the day. The press will talk openly about his "failed promise" and "rhetoric without substance." Obama will be angered by this and have an unscripted and public tantrum sometime during the year. His approval ratings remain dismal throughout 2010.
This was spot on for the most part except for the public tantrum. He has lost most of his promise and he could easily be considered Carter v2.0.
My foreign affairs predictions were more or less unfulfilled. I guess I had too much wishful thinking and not enough pragmatic analysis. Oh well on to my 2011 Predictions.
No comments:
Post a Comment