A Taliban Tet Offensive?

This George Will article makes quite a bit of sense if you were Taliban fighting against the US.

Might the Taliban's tactics, techniques and procedures (in military argot, TTP) make possible a spike in violence in some way comparable to Tet in its impact on American opinion? No one knows this, or how another attack on America, perhaps launched from Yemen, might affect public support for what are explained as prophylactic operations in Afghanistan. 

The problem with the Tet Offensive it crippled the Vietcong and the North still had to fight on for 7 more years in order to achieve victory. Even then if the US had supported the South one more time they might have been able to beat back the offensive of April 1975.  It is not a done deal but I would be willing to bet the US would come to the aid of Afghanistan if Taliban Tanks started to mass outside of Kabul.

However, an all out attack by the Taliban might damage public opinion enough that the Americans might draw down sooner but it is quite a gamble. The Taliban wins as soon as the last American leaves the country and you are still around to see them go. To them a waiting game is the winning hand.

If the Americans were smart they would just say that they will be in Afghanistan for 200 years like the British did. That could be a lie and you would still draw down by a certain date but your enemy will think you are in for the long haul. The Taliban might need to negotiate if they know that they can never drive the Americans out no matter what they do.

In fact if the Taliban was a smart player in the Great Game they should simply found their own country and look to the UN to watch their back. I'm sure they could get Russia and China to back them simply to pin a defeat on the Americans. They can forswear violence and build up their "self-defense" forces and wait for the Americans to leave then attack Afghanistan or even Pakistan.

Here your bet will be on the Americans or NATO failing to return to the region after they have been run off. They would be betting that the world powers will "condemn with the strongest possible terms" but not send troops to bomb you. I would take that bet because you aren't threatening oil fields or Gulf Shipping or anything like that so the Great Powers would have more then enough reason to ignore you.

About the only thing the West would care about is if you took over a Pakistani nuclear site. If that happened you would have the keys to the kingdom and ransom the world if you wanted. But using the UN to forward your agenda is a time honored tradition of belligerent nations.