At least according to this AP poll.
McCain leads Obama by 55 percent to 37 percent among whites. That includes comfortable leads of 24 points with suburban whites and 26 points with whites who haven't finished college, and has similar advantages with white men and whites who are married.
He also leads by 23 points among rural voters and by 13 points with voters age 65 and over.
Obama leads 61 percent to 35 percent among voters under age 30. He has about a 5-to-1 edge with minorities and a narrow 5-point lead with women, though he trails among white women 53 percent to 40 percent.
If that under 30 crowd doesn't show up on election day then I think Obama may be sunk. It must suck to base your Presidential hopes on such a fickle crowd. The groups in McCains column are solid voters like my Dad who has voted in every Presidential election even when he was away in a foreign country.
The voters in Obama's camp may not vote simply because the polling place wasn't listed on Facebook or they figure "the election is fixed anyway so why should I vote." I have seen big support and enthusiasm from the under 30 crowd for Obama this election. However all of that will be washed away if they don't show up at the polling place in large numbers.
If they are absent for another Presidential election (this time for a candidate that thinks he is a rock star) then you can write off that under-30 group as a waste of time from here on in. All that "Vote or Die" or "Rock the Vote" stuff will be an exercise in futility. The under 30 crowd will only be good for Internet money but actually doing anything for them in the future will be time and money wasted.
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