Monday, August 06, 2007

Pretty Grim Take on the Housing Blowup

It seems that not even the FED can save us from things going belly up in the mortgage markets. This is the scariest part of the article I think:
Inquiring minds are no doubt asking why even more miracles may be
needed. The reasons center around debt servicing and jobs. There is simply no
pent up demand for housing, no growth in wages, and no way cash strapped
consumers can service current debt loads. There is also no source of jobs that
an overheated housing market created. There is no need for more Home Depots
(HD), Lowes (LOW), Pizza Huts (YUM), Applebees (APPB), nail salons, strip malls,
Walmarts, etc etc. In fact there is a need for less stores not more and the
coming consumer led recession will prove it. Overcapacity is simply rampant. It
would take even more miracles to correct all of that.

No jobs, no wage growth, and no housing demand means there will be widespread foreclosures unless people take 2nd and 3rd jobs to service all that debt. If you think people are cranky now wait until they are working 3 jobs to pay more and more every month for that $600K house that is now worth only $500K.

I'm guessing there might be some knee-jerk reaction on the part of the Dem Senate to bail these people out. Will Fannie and Freddie, financed by the taxpayer, buy all those underwater/defaulted mortgages? Or will there be a bail out of the mortgage market just like we saw in the bail out of the savings and loans in the 80s? I guess it depends on the pain that the US consumer will be feeling and how much they clamor for a government quick fix.

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