Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Whats Up with the Ennui? Americans Seem Discontent in the Summer of 2014

I recently read this article about Dicks Sporting Goods firing 200 golf pros because golf is hitting that companies bottom line hard.

Yesterday Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS) announced it would be cutting more than 400 PGA professionals in its stores. Dicks has been candid about the downturn in its golf business before, in its last conference call CEO Ed Stack said the downturn in golf was responsible for the vast majority of the company's earnings shortfall and added that he saw no bottom in sight for the business. Still it's a significant concession to fire these pros. After all, Dicks first expanded heavily into golf in 2007. Golf survived the Great Recession but can't hack the sense of ennui of 2014.

I also saw on ESPN that golf and NASCAR are seriously hurting for viewers and are trying everything to get people to watch and to show up. It also seems that Americans are barely going to the movies.

It's not just weather-related things like golf. Americans aren't even going to the movies anymore either. July box office is off 30% compared to last year. It's the worst year for American cinema since 2011. Hell, it's almost August and we don't even have a song of the summer yet.

Well the movies in July have been fairly substandard so that might be part of it. Last year we had Wolverine, the Conjuring, Pacific Rim and Despicable Me 2. While this year we have Earth to Echo (bombed,) Tammy (Melissa Mccarthy looking gross and sloppy,) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (the first one didn't do much for me,) Sex Tape (which looks like a bomb,) and Hurcules (I'm going to see it but it is the Rock with fake looking hair fighting CGI monsters.) So the slate is very bare and a 30% drop off was not a huge shock.

But there does seem to be a palpable sense of ennui in the country. I think part of it is people are tired of Obama and the scandal/crisis parade. I need a spreadsheet to keep track of the scandals and there is a sense that he has just checked out on America. We have four crisis all going on at the same time. Israel is attacking Hamas in Gaza, ISIS has taken over western Iraq and part of Syria, Ukrainian rebels shoot down a Malaysian jetliner, and 50,000 unaccompanied kids entered the country illegally from Mexico. All of those things are going on and the President plays golf, tries to go on Jimmy Kimmel, and jets off to $30K a plate rubber chicken dinners. If he doesn't seem to care about what is happening why should anyone else?

We couple that with the fact that there is no real happy craze in the country to unite us. The World Cup was popular but most Americans kind of ignored it after we were eliminated. The iPhone and the iPad are long in the tooth and won't be refreshed until fall. There are "disruptive companies" like Uber and Wealthfront and such but most Americans who aren't millennials or really tech savvy don't know what those are. Plus some people see the companies as some 20-something kids getting rich off of venture capital money while eliminating cab drivers jobs. There is no beanie babies or Gangnam Style or anything to keep peoples minds off of things even for just a little while.

There is also a sense that the old world of video stores, book stores, computer stores, cab drivers, travel agents, etc is being replaced by a shiny new one on your tablet or smart phone. The ritual of going to the mall to rent a DVD or buy a new summertime best seller has been replaced by a few swipes on your tablet on the Amazon app and scrolling through Netflix. There are so many entertainment choices at your fingertips you are bored of them already. So people stay in their sweltering homes staring at their tiny screens all weekend. Or go to the seashore and stare at their tiny screens while sitting in the sun.

Then we have wages stagnant and the FED punishing savers with terrible interest rates. There was a recession and a housing blow-up and no one went to jail or were punished or anything. Those same banks and insurance companies that were bailed out are raking in the money again. We have just about everyone calling for a correction or a crash. Most Americans seemed to have been gun-shy and missed almost the entire massive stock market move since 2008. So they missed the huge run-up and now that they get a little breathing room and want to get back into the market we get calls for a crash just around the corner. I can see why the American people are just as checked out as the President.

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