Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Obama Faces a Terrible Choice on Iraq: Yeah it is a Shit Sandwich and He Has to Take a Bite

I would not envy this new foreign policy conundrum the White House is facing. Every choice sucks as far as I can tell.

1. Team up with Iran to fight the insurgents with air power. Its the Great Satan and and Axis of Evil member in a tag-team match for the soul of Iraq. This is pretty much the US flying drone strikes for the Badr Brigade and the Iranian Republican Guard. That cannot look good if you are against Iranian nuclear ambitions and pro-sanctions. Also these are the same guys that were trying to kill our troops just a few years ago.

2. Do nothing. We get a ring side seat for genocide and a civil war that impacts a nation that is a huge oil producer that we recently fought a war to "liberate." In fact it is an honest-to-goodness regional conflict because ISIS is taking the looted tanks and weapons from the Iraqi army to go fight in Syria. The Syrian war just escalated. That seems to happen when you don't do anything except write red lines and pass out MREs in a conflict. If you don't lead you end up having to have conditions dictated to you.

3. Boots on the Ground. We get sucked into a regional civil war between the Sunni and the Shiites that have been going on since Mohammed died. We shouldn't have left in the first place but this is the kind of thing that happens when we do. We have to come back into the picture but the battlefield is already tilted against us. In fact not signing a status-of-forces agreement might get the Iraqi government killed if ISIS invades Baghdad.

All of these things are terrible choices. Maybe some Great Game playing with us aligning with and arming the Kurds might be in order. It will piss off Turkey but you have to pick the side that would be the most beneficial to your nation in the long run. You might have to partition the country though in order for this to succeed and I'm sure the UN would not want that to happen.

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