Right now, only one third of Republican voters have heard of Cain. But among this group, 24 percent pick him as their first choice for the nomination. No other candidate performs that well--just 20 percent of the people who've heard of Romney pick him as their No. 1. For Palin, that number is 16 percent; Pawlenty, 13 percent. And Silver explains why this is important:
[T]his measure--a candidate's polling adjusted for name recognition--has a reasonably good track record. It would have identified winners like Michael Dukakis and John Kerry relatively early in the process, as well as Bill Clinton by the time he officially entered the race in November 1991. ...
I think the GOP candidate needs to be either Cain or Pawlenty or Obama wins by default. Romney and Palin cannot win by any stretch of the imagination. I also think Newt is flawed and will be picked apart as a nominee. It would be nuts though to have Cain win the Presidency without holding some other office beforehand. I think only a handful of Presidents pulled off that feat and most of them were Generals.
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