Thursday, March 04, 2010

Why it is Not Good to Listen to Doctor Doom

Well, I certainly didn't listen to Nouriel Roubini and was able to catch quite a bit of this same rally myself.

And (since the recession wasn’t U-shaped, as Roubini said it would be) the right multiple to put on those earnings wasn’t 10 or 12, but something quite a bit higher. So instead of falling by 20% as Roubini predicted, stock prices have risen by 49% over the subsequent twelve months—one of the greatest one-year rallies in the history of publicly traded equities. Roubini’s clients must have been pleased with his advice.

I have to say that recoveries create the best sort of rallies. The old adage "when there is blood on the streets buy property." Just make sure you had your money out of the market when that blood was being spilled.

I think the only real thing that could derail growth now is a European debt crisis that moves from Greece then to Portugal, Spain, and to Ireland. That is a double dip recession automatically.

I am less worried about Obama's spending his way into the poorhouse now that the Dems are drinking their sake and lining up to crash their Zeros in the Battle for Obamacare. 2010 will see a either a changeover in the Congress or at least an obliteration of any meaningful Democratic spending scheme.

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