Thursday, February 28, 2008

8 Reasons There Won't be a Recession

There is some compelling stuff here. I agree with this point the most:
3. Interest rates are historically low worldwide, and after Ben's testimony
yesterday, it is obvious that U.S. rates are going lower. The Fed has been
pumping massive amounts of money into the system, as shown by the rapid growth in M2. My bet is the European Central Bank will also capitulate and lower rates before long. The fed funds rate equivalent in the eurozone is 4%, and while I
think it needs to be reduced to spur growth, 4% isn't a killer. There is a lot
of noise about a stagflation environment developing. The last bout of
stagflation in the 1970s saw interest rates/inflation at almost 14% and near
double-digit unemployment, so I think the hysteria is a touch premature.

I think alot of the recession talk has been pumped up by the media as an election year ploy. We are not even close to double digit inflation, interest rates, and unemployment. In any case Obama has already try to use it as a club to try to beat Bush and McCain with. I'm sorry but "tax cuts for the wealthy" did not cause the problems. It was incredibly low interest rates and rampant housing speculation that did it. It was a case of too many Flippers and Greenspan keeping the punch bowl out too long.

No comments: