Tuesday, December 27, 2005

Yield Curve Inverts Recession Imminent?

It looks like hte yield curve inverted today and it smacked-down stocks. This is interesting news:

Such an unusual event typically has foreshadowed a noticeable economic downturn. Usually, a recession has followed.

Despite the warning signs in the Treasury market, however, few economists expect a recession in the next year. This time, they say, things are different.

This time will be different? I'm not so sure about that. The yield curve only inverted once and there was no recession. Here is when:

The yield curve briefly inverted in 1998 during the Asian financial crisis -- the only time in the past 30 years that an inverted yield curve has not preceded a recession.

One time in 30 years isn't anything to bank on. It may be time to be vigilant in the market and start hedging your stocks well.

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