Politics
1. The Dems will win a few seats in the midterms but it won't be a blue wave like they think. The Senate will be split 50/50 with Pence being the swing vote. There is an actual call for bipartisanship but only a few things get done.
Well this was an epic fail. The Dems won the House fairly handily and and the GOP added seats in the Senate. Bipartisanship remains a dirty word and few things did get done.
2. DACA gets done within a larger fight for immigration reform. It is mostly used as a bargaining chip to get the wall build. Trump settles for a partial win with an electronic wall instead of an actual physical wall. He calls it the "greatest wall ever built." The Chinese scoff.
No DACA. So fail this one. We are shut down over a piddly ass $5 billion in wall funding.
3. The infrastructure bill gets passed but it is far short of the $1 trillion dollars that was called for in the Trump campaign. The GOP cannot come out against it as deficit hawks after a $1.5 trillion dollar tax cut.
No Infrastructure bill.
4. Sexual allegations sweep through Washington and claims a number of high profile Congress-critters. However, there is a backlash as the accused go on the offensive asking for their due process rights. Only a handful actual resign. The sexual allegations move to the sports world as a new wave of revulsion grips America.
Got this one. But only a few people (Al Frankin) actually resigned. Also the sports world remains fairly untouched be #MeToo
5. Trumps tweets become less important as America enjoys the prosperity that the tax cuts bring in. Outrage turns to ephemera as things like Prince Harry's wedding overshadows Trump hate. Colbert and other Trump-haters ratings dip.
This would have been true if the year ended around September. However, Jay Powell and a few good China tariffs cost us the gains for the year. Colbert has dropped to 2nd place however.
World
1. There are talks between North Korea and the US brokered by Dennis Rodman of all people. There is a "Nixon goes to China" moment as Trump and Kim meet in Beijing. A deal is struck as North Korea backs down. There is no hot war in Asia.
Got this one but it was Trump goes to Singapore instead. No North Korea deal though.
2. Saudis and Iran start to move away from a strict interpretation of Islam and start to move toward a rapprochement. They both move to diversify away from oil with Saudi Aramco's IPO being one of the biggest of all time. Mohammad Bin Salman becomes the man of the year.
Salman could have had this if not for the extra-judicious killing and trying to cover it up. The bonesaw-heard-round-the-world cost him and his nation big time.
3. Terror attacks and warfare with the Islamic world starts to slow considerably. The world moves into a more peaceful period.
Hmm, we are a bit more peaceful as major wars wind down. Also terrorism and ISIS are on the run.
4. European Countries start to cut taxes to compete with America. This creates a global positive feedback loop that lifts all boats. Economic growth is unheard of since the 50s as capital starts to flow all over the place. This causes an inflation scare that takes the market down in March. However, it recovers and it sees highs it has never seen in decades.
This was a fail. Brexit absorbs Europe and climate change tax hikes cost Macron big time. Growth stays fairly tepid.
5. Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies crash as everyone jams the exits at the same time. This causes another market pullback but it soon recovers and reaches long term highs again.
Got this one. Bitcoin is down big for the year.
Economic Predictions
S&P 500: 3,000 2506 (big miss)
Dow: 27,000 23,327 (another big miss)
NASDAQ: 7,100 6,635 (0 for 3)
Russell 2000: 1,650 1,348 (yup)
Bitcoin: $800 $3,972 (not really a crash but way off its highs)
Crude Oil: $68 $45.41 (here was a crash)
Gold: $1320 $1286 (fairly close)
EUR/Dollar: $1.10 $1.15 (closer)
10 Year Bond: 2.55 2.68 % (just a bit off)
Sports Predictions:
NFL: Philadelphia Eagles Eagles: Got this one
NBA: Boston Celtics Golden State Again
MLB: New York Yankees Red Sox (ugh)
Premier League: Arsenal Manchester City
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich Yup Munich again
NCAA Football: Georgia Bulldogs Alabama
NCAA Basketball: Duke Villanova
Top 5 Grossing Movies:
1. Avengers: Infinity War (1st)
2. Incredibles 2 (4th)
3. Deadpool 2 (7th)
4. Black Panther (2nd)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (bomb-a-roo)
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