I might as well write these down instead of keeping them in my head:
Resolutions for 2019
1. Be Nicer: I have a tendency to be angry and misanthropic while envying people who are naturally good-natured. I will try to emulate them more and have a generally positive attitude more often
2. Laugh More: I will watch more comedies than Horror movies. Will go out of my way to yuk it up and make the people I love figuratively split their sides.
3. Stay generally peaceful: I will try not to get angry and hold grudges. Let it all go and move on to the next thing with happiness in my heart.
4. Try to take alcohol medicinally: I will try to move away from being a teetotaler and try to imbibe a bit more so frequently. I will try an expensive single-malt Scotch at least once and enjoy it.
5. Not eat so much: I pride myself on the ability to eat large piles of food. I will instead eat just the tasty stuff and stay pleasantly full. I will eat a bit more greens and fruit as well. I will also eat more sweets as well
Goals for 2019
1. Buy a new car with 100% cash. I got the cash just need to buy the car.
2. Go to the dentist. Haven't been for years and know it will be a horror show in there. But I need to get it done.
3. Buy a new pair of glasses. My old pair is actually covered with scratches and I can barely see out of them.
4. Find a 2 bagger stock. Hopefully we will have good growth in 2019 and dodge a recession. A nice upward move will make America a much happier place.
5. Do art. I have the supplies I just need time to sit down and do it. I will make that time.
Monday, December 31, 2018
2018 Predictions: It Has to be a Better Year than 2018.
Politics
1. There will be relentless probes, subpoenas, allegations, committees and everything into the White House. It will all be for naught as Trump wriggles out of everything. They will call him the Teflon Don after this.
World
Economic Predictions
S&P 500: 3,100
Dow: 26,500
NASDAQ: 7,000
Russell 2000: 1,680
Crude Oil: $55
Gold: $1210
EUR/Dollar: $1.09
10 Year Bond: 2.32
Sports Predictions:
NFL: Chicago Bears
NBA: Milwaukee (Greek Freak becomes the new LeBron)
MLB: Houston Astros
Premier League: Manchester City
Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund
NCAA Football: Clemson Tigers
NCAA Basketball: Michigan
Top 5 Grossing Movies:
1. Avengers: Endgame
2. Toy Story 4
3. Captain Marvel
4. Star Wars Episode IX
5. Lego Movie 2
1. There will be relentless probes, subpoenas, allegations, committees and everything into the White House. It will all be for naught as Trump wriggles out of everything. They will call him the Teflon Don after this.
2. The Mueller probe will be find nothing and no collusion will be charged. It will all be an exercise in nothing and the Dems will quickly forget it has happened.
3. Gridlock will paralyze Washington and not much of anything will get done.
4. Growth will slow but we will not have a recession. We will get a China deal and it will be thin gruel and be the kind of thing that we would have got without trade tensions. Trump will pound his chest saying it was the best trade deal ever done.
5. No infrastructure deal and immigration will still stay an issue.
6. There will be 12 Democratic challengers and 2 GOP primary challengers going into 2020. The horse-race will start even earlier then ever before. Hillary will not run.
World
1. The Syrian war will end with some sort of peace as Russia and Iran holds the South and the Saudis and Iraq hold the Northeast. The massacre of the Kurds does not happen.
2. A peace deal is done with the Taliban and peace reigns in that country for the first time in decades.
3. The fear of terrorism will start to subside some as fewer attacks are carried out.
4. World leaders will continue to distrust and talk crap about Trump. However the world will start to move toward a populism as Germany moves away from Merkle and France moves away from Macron. Brexit will cost the Torries their position as Labor once again gains power. Without Corbyn.
5. China becomes the most important movie market by far with America taking 2nd fiddle. Every every big movie opens in China first and America limps along afterward
Economic Predictions
S&P 500: 3,100
Dow: 26,500
NASDAQ: 7,000
Russell 2000: 1,680
Crude Oil: $55
Gold: $1210
EUR/Dollar: $1.09
10 Year Bond: 2.32
Sports Predictions:
NFL: Chicago Bears
NBA: Milwaukee (Greek Freak becomes the new LeBron)
MLB: Houston Astros
Premier League: Manchester City
Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund
NCAA Football: Clemson Tigers
NCAA Basketball: Michigan
Top 5 Grossing Movies:
1. Avengers: Endgame
2. Toy Story 4
3. Captain Marvel
4. Star Wars Episode IX
5. Lego Movie 2
2018 a Look Back
Well I haven't blogged much in 2018 since I have been using Twitter much more. Here is my Twitter handle: @Joemama75. But I will do much more in 2019 I think. In any case here is a look back at the 2018 Predictions.
Politics
1. The Dems will win a few seats in the midterms but it won't be a blue wave like they think. The Senate will be split 50/50 with Pence being the swing vote. There is an actual call for bipartisanship but only a few things get done.
Well this was an epic fail. The Dems won the House fairly handily and and the GOP added seats in the Senate. Bipartisanship remains a dirty word and few things did get done.
2. DACA gets done within a larger fight for immigration reform. It is mostly used as a bargaining chip to get the wall build. Trump settles for a partial win with an electronic wall instead of an actual physical wall. He calls it the "greatest wall ever built." The Chinese scoff.
No DACA. So fail this one. We are shut down over a piddly ass $5 billion in wall funding.
3. The infrastructure bill gets passed but it is far short of the $1 trillion dollars that was called for in the Trump campaign. The GOP cannot come out against it as deficit hawks after a $1.5 trillion dollar tax cut.
No Infrastructure bill.
4. Sexual allegations sweep through Washington and claims a number of high profile Congress-critters. However, there is a backlash as the accused go on the offensive asking for their due process rights. Only a handful actual resign. The sexual allegations move to the sports world as a new wave of revulsion grips America.
Got this one. But only a few people (Al Frankin) actually resigned. Also the sports world remains fairly untouched be #MeToo
5. Trumps tweets become less important as America enjoys the prosperity that the tax cuts bring in. Outrage turns to ephemera as things like Prince Harry's wedding overshadows Trump hate. Colbert and other Trump-haters ratings dip.
This would have been true if the year ended around September. However, Jay Powell and a few good China tariffs cost us the gains for the year. Colbert has dropped to 2nd place however.
World
1. There are talks between North Korea and the US brokered by Dennis Rodman of all people. There is a "Nixon goes to China" moment as Trump and Kim meet in Beijing. A deal is struck as North Korea backs down. There is no hot war in Asia.
Got this one but it was Trump goes to Singapore instead. No North Korea deal though.
2. Saudis and Iran start to move away from a strict interpretation of Islam and start to move toward a rapprochement. They both move to diversify away from oil with Saudi Aramco's IPO being one of the biggest of all time. Mohammad Bin Salman becomes the man of the year.
Salman could have had this if not for the extra-judicious killing and trying to cover it up. The bonesaw-heard-round-the-world cost him and his nation big time.
3. Terror attacks and warfare with the Islamic world starts to slow considerably. The world moves into a more peaceful period.
Hmm, we are a bit more peaceful as major wars wind down. Also terrorism and ISIS are on the run.
4. European Countries start to cut taxes to compete with America. This creates a global positive feedback loop that lifts all boats. Economic growth is unheard of since the 50s as capital starts to flow all over the place. This causes an inflation scare that takes the market down in March. However, it recovers and it sees highs it has never seen in decades.
This was a fail. Brexit absorbs Europe and climate change tax hikes cost Macron big time. Growth stays fairly tepid.
5. Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies crash as everyone jams the exits at the same time. This causes another market pullback but it soon recovers and reaches long term highs again.
Got this one. Bitcoin is down big for the year.
Economic Predictions
S&P 500: 3,000 2506 (big miss)
Dow: 27,000 23,327 (another big miss)
NASDAQ: 7,100 6,635 (0 for 3)
Russell 2000: 1,650 1,348 (yup)
Bitcoin: $800 $3,972 (not really a crash but way off its highs)
Crude Oil: $68 $45.41 (here was a crash)
Gold: $1320 $1286 (fairly close)
EUR/Dollar: $1.10 $1.15 (closer)
10 Year Bond: 2.55 2.68 % (just a bit off)
Sports Predictions:
NFL: Philadelphia Eagles Eagles: Got this one
NBA: Boston Celtics Golden State Again
MLB: New York Yankees Red Sox (ugh)
Premier League: Arsenal Manchester City
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich Yup Munich again
NCAA Football: Georgia Bulldogs Alabama
NCAA Basketball: Duke Villanova
Top 5 Grossing Movies:
1. Avengers: Infinity War (1st)
2. Incredibles 2 (4th)
3. Deadpool 2 (7th)
4. Black Panther (2nd)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (bomb-a-roo)
Politics
1. The Dems will win a few seats in the midterms but it won't be a blue wave like they think. The Senate will be split 50/50 with Pence being the swing vote. There is an actual call for bipartisanship but only a few things get done.
Well this was an epic fail. The Dems won the House fairly handily and and the GOP added seats in the Senate. Bipartisanship remains a dirty word and few things did get done.
2. DACA gets done within a larger fight for immigration reform. It is mostly used as a bargaining chip to get the wall build. Trump settles for a partial win with an electronic wall instead of an actual physical wall. He calls it the "greatest wall ever built." The Chinese scoff.
No DACA. So fail this one. We are shut down over a piddly ass $5 billion in wall funding.
3. The infrastructure bill gets passed but it is far short of the $1 trillion dollars that was called for in the Trump campaign. The GOP cannot come out against it as deficit hawks after a $1.5 trillion dollar tax cut.
No Infrastructure bill.
4. Sexual allegations sweep through Washington and claims a number of high profile Congress-critters. However, there is a backlash as the accused go on the offensive asking for their due process rights. Only a handful actual resign. The sexual allegations move to the sports world as a new wave of revulsion grips America.
Got this one. But only a few people (Al Frankin) actually resigned. Also the sports world remains fairly untouched be #MeToo
5. Trumps tweets become less important as America enjoys the prosperity that the tax cuts bring in. Outrage turns to ephemera as things like Prince Harry's wedding overshadows Trump hate. Colbert and other Trump-haters ratings dip.
This would have been true if the year ended around September. However, Jay Powell and a few good China tariffs cost us the gains for the year. Colbert has dropped to 2nd place however.
World
1. There are talks between North Korea and the US brokered by Dennis Rodman of all people. There is a "Nixon goes to China" moment as Trump and Kim meet in Beijing. A deal is struck as North Korea backs down. There is no hot war in Asia.
Got this one but it was Trump goes to Singapore instead. No North Korea deal though.
2. Saudis and Iran start to move away from a strict interpretation of Islam and start to move toward a rapprochement. They both move to diversify away from oil with Saudi Aramco's IPO being one of the biggest of all time. Mohammad Bin Salman becomes the man of the year.
Salman could have had this if not for the extra-judicious killing and trying to cover it up. The bonesaw-heard-round-the-world cost him and his nation big time.
3. Terror attacks and warfare with the Islamic world starts to slow considerably. The world moves into a more peaceful period.
Hmm, we are a bit more peaceful as major wars wind down. Also terrorism and ISIS are on the run.
4. European Countries start to cut taxes to compete with America. This creates a global positive feedback loop that lifts all boats. Economic growth is unheard of since the 50s as capital starts to flow all over the place. This causes an inflation scare that takes the market down in March. However, it recovers and it sees highs it has never seen in decades.
This was a fail. Brexit absorbs Europe and climate change tax hikes cost Macron big time. Growth stays fairly tepid.
5. Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies crash as everyone jams the exits at the same time. This causes another market pullback but it soon recovers and reaches long term highs again.
Got this one. Bitcoin is down big for the year.
Economic Predictions
S&P 500: 3,000 2506 (big miss)
Dow: 27,000 23,327 (another big miss)
NASDAQ: 7,100 6,635 (0 for 3)
Russell 2000: 1,650 1,348 (yup)
Bitcoin: $800 $3,972 (not really a crash but way off its highs)
Crude Oil: $68 $45.41 (here was a crash)
Gold: $1320 $1286 (fairly close)
EUR/Dollar: $1.10 $1.15 (closer)
10 Year Bond: 2.55 2.68 % (just a bit off)
Sports Predictions:
NFL: Philadelphia Eagles Eagles: Got this one
NBA: Boston Celtics Golden State Again
MLB: New York Yankees Red Sox (ugh)
Premier League: Arsenal Manchester City
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich Yup Munich again
NCAA Football: Georgia Bulldogs Alabama
NCAA Basketball: Duke Villanova
Top 5 Grossing Movies:
1. Avengers: Infinity War (1st)
2. Incredibles 2 (4th)
3. Deadpool 2 (7th)
4. Black Panther (2nd)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (bomb-a-roo)
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