What really happened in blue
Politics:
1.
The Syrian war will grind on without the world taking much notice.
Eventually there will be a cease-fire brokered by the Russians and the
Saudis and the country will be virtually partitioned. In will take years
before the UN actually gets around to an actual partitioning of the
country.
Partially correct. The war has ground on with the world not taking too much notice. However ISIS as a new player in town have received all sorts of notice. The Syrian civil war seems to be sort of ignored by Russia and the Saudis for the most part. The Saudis do want to get rid of ISIS though.
2. The Sochi Olympics will overshadowed by
fear and uncertainty. The Russian military presence coupled with the
threat of terrorism will be a big story in the games and will cut into
the enjoyment. There will be several terrorist attacks in Russia during
the games but none at the actual Olympic village although it is feared.
Wrong. Sochi Olympics were sort of a success. No terrorists attacks because the Russians clamped down on security on the whole country. Also there wasn't really a terrorist threat as far as I remember.
3.
Russia will slowly start to destabilize as cheap oil from the US brings
oil prices down. More and more pressure will be put on Putin from
reformers and terrorists and his government will waver. He holds on to
power but has to put some reforms into place to solidify himself.
Deferred to next year. He hasn't put any reforms in place yet but cheap oil might slowly be unmaking him. The Ruble is damaged and they have to charge 17% on their debt in order to make it attractive. If oil stays cheap for months this one might happen.
4.
The US will quietly leave Afghanistan and the Taliban will make peace
with the Afghan government. This war will slowly leave the consciousness
of the US government and a tentative peace will come over the area.
Mostly correct. US is leaving Afghanistan for the most part with little ceremony. The longest war is US history is over and its up to the Afghans to keep the peace. However, the Taliban isn't making any peace treaties and might be the bitter-enders everyone fears.
5.
The World Cup in Brazil will be a huge success and will usher the
country onto the world stage. Much of what people see are the large
gulfs between the rich and the poor and see how bad poor Brazilians
live. It will bring in much needed reforms that will help the average
Brazilian for decades.
Partially correct. The World Cup was huge and people did see how bad some Brazilians live. However, there were only a few demonstrations and nothing has really changed for the poor in Brazil.
6. The Democrats will retain the
Senate by a slim 2 vote margin. The GOP will again control the House.
There is a new spirit of bipartisanship as various GOP White House
hopefuls hope to get the centrist vote. The "Conservative Industrial
Complex" of the Heritage Action, Freedom Works, Club for Growth, Rush
Limbaugh etc. power will be diminished by a large margin as men like
Paul Ryan and Chris Christie try to jockey for the center in time for
the next election. The GOP makes fewer gaffs and does not shut down the
government and welcomes more women and minorities into their ranks.
Partially correct. The Dems lost and the Senate belongs to the GOP by a landslide. The GOP not only won the House they did so with the biggest majority since the Herbert Hoover was in office. There has been a little bipartisanship with the last continuing budget resolution that was past. The CIC is still potent but their power seems to have diminished with the Tea Parties power at a low ebb. The GOP made nearly no gaffs and went 1 and 1 on government shutdown attempts. They did welcome a few women (Joni Ernst, Elise Stefanik) and minorities (Mia Love) this past election cycle.
Economy:
1.
Tapering will be a non-event with the FED slowly withdrawing the bond
buying and the market hardly reacting. Yellen will be confirmed without
issue and kind of go about her business without creating much uproar.
The economy will grow strongly at 3% or higher and prosperity will
replace quite a bit of the dark clouds of past years. Housing prices
will rise and the stock market will stay near record high levels for
much of the year.
Totally Correct. Tapering was a whimper and not a bang. Yellen was confirmed quite easily and there really hasn't been much uproar in her tenure so far. The GDP grew after a bad 1st quarter due to the blizzard with a 5% number in the 4th quarter. Housing prices are higher and the stock market was near a record high for most of the year.
2. Energy Independence will finally
be realized in many parts of the US. Gas prices will start to come down
and the US will decouple from much of the world oil market. The Oil
Majors will have record profits and the Energy Sector will lead the rest
of the market.
Partially correct. We are slowly moving toward energy independence. Gas prices are coming down and oil prices are a multi-year lows. However, the energy sector was the worst performing of all sectors thanks to the low oil prices.
3. There will be a true split between
old tech (HP, Cisco, IBM, Dell) and new tech (Samsung, Google, Apple,
Facebook, Twitter) and their stock prices will tell the tale. The
personal computer will hang on and grow modestly as companies just can't
shake the form factor. The consumer side will be a mess with double
digit losses in growth from year to year. Microsoft will again flat-line
as the Xbox One will pretty much carry the company for 2014.
Partially correct. There was a split between some old tech (IBM, Dell is private now, HP is floundering) but Samsung is floundering, Google stock is lower, but Facebook and Twitter did well this year. Personal Computers still seem entrenched in business and the rapid decline has stabilized. The consumer side however is growing great guns with Apple selling piles of stuff. Also Microsoft has taken off and is firing on all cylinders.
4.
The Phablet will be very popular in 2014 with more people carrying
around an oversized phone instead of a tablet and a phone. Samsung will
again lead the pack with Apple failing to bring about a similar Phablet
form-factor in 2014.
Wrong. I'm sure someone is buying Phablets but they don't seem to reside in the US. I really haven't seen many people carrying them for the most part.
5. Facebook will finally seem long
in the tooth and will start to loose much of its cache to Twitter and
other social media. They will go on a spate of acquisitions to stay
relevant and swallow other social media sites like it did Instagram.
Partially correct. Facebook seems to be fairly stable with more main stream use then before. It now seems to be the province of your grandmother and aunt and not of your son or daughter though. The young have moved to Twitter and Snapchat and other forms of social media. Facebook did buy a few of companies though for outrageous valuation (WhatsApp for $19 billion!) and Oculus VR ($2 billion?)
6. Here are the end of 2014 numbers:
Prediction Actual
Dow: 17100 17970
NASDAQ: 4210 4774
S&P 500: 1941 2080
Eur/Dollar: 1.15 1.21 (close)
10 Year Bond: 3.10% 2.18 (big miss)
Gold: $1240 an ounce $1200 (close)
Oil: $72 a barrel $53.89 (big miss)
No comments:
Post a Comment