Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Russia Signs Massive Natural Gas Deal with Red China: Masterstroke for Russia and China in "The Great Game"

It seems that the Russians are going to start looking East to diversify away from the the European market.

China signed a landmark deal Wednesday to buy Russian natural gas worth about $400 billion, giving a boost to diplomatically isolated President Vladimir Putin and expanding Moscow's ties with Asia.

Price negotiations on the 30-year deal continued into the final hours of a two-day visit by Putin to China, during which both sides had said they hoped to sign an agreement.

Hmm this is an interesting development. There was talk that this deal fell through but I bet it was quibbling over time period more than a cash figure (perhaps the Red Chinese wanted 50 years or something.) Both of the nations win big and it is a very savvy move in "The Great Game."

In any case it now focuses Russia eastward and either gives Putin a free hand in the Ukraine (and Georgia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia etc.) or he might reestablish hegemony over what was once the Southern USSR (Kazakhstan and the like.) That would put this information in play:

Putin was in Shanghai for an Asian security conference where China's president called for a new model of Asian security cooperation based on a regional group that includes Russia and Iran and excludes the United States.

A Russian southern scenario would be easier to do especially if they make the grand gesture of taking pressure off of the Ukraine. The Europeans and Obama would get off Putin's back since he already got the piece of the Ukraine that he wanted (the permanent Black Sea port.) Sanctions can be lowered and Putin can appear to back down from "Western pressure."

However, an "economic union" to Putins south would be easy to form. Pro-Moscow leaders can be groomed in a place that has lots of mineral wealth but in an area where few people can find on a map. I'm sure that "Russian tanks enter Kyrgyzstan to quell uprising" would be on page 15 of the New York Times.

Also even stronger ties with Iran (maybe a pipeline leading to a state of the art Gazprom refinery) would be a finger in the eye of the US as well. A stronger Iranian/Russian partnership would benefit both countries equally and restart a Soviet era partnership. Putin loves that Soviet era stuff so it would be a smart play in the Great Game.

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