2017: The End of Microsoft?!?

Well it seems that Gartner Microsoft is going to be seriously hurting by 2017 if they keep losing market share to Android and iOS.

According to Gartner, worldwide shipments of smartphones and tablets may reach 1.9 billion units and 197 million units, respectively in 2013. Further, by 2017 smartphone units may touch 2.12 billion, with tablet units going up to 467 million. 

Further, Gartner predicts that traditional PC shipments will continue to decline. Shipments may fall 7.6% in 2013 to 315 million units, down from 341 million in 2012. By 2017, it may go down further to 271 million. The rise in popularity of Android-based smart devices is expected to further aggravate the decline. By 2017, Gartner expects tablets and smartphones may outperform traditional PCs.  

In other words Android and iOS based tablets and smartphones will have a huge install base by 2017 while traditional PC sales will go from 341 million to 271 million in a few years. The only problem I have with Gartner is that it is still difficult to do actual work with a tablet or smartphone. Once people get used to docking their tablet and then working with a bunch of work related apps then Microsoft will be hurting. I can see a future where certain industries have every major piece of their business software hosted outside of their company and accessible via any browser on any device.

What is worse is that ChromeOS might really threaten Microsoft from a price point of view as well. Cheap Chromebooks will eat into their already shrinking install base. I can see a company facing an upgrade cycle perhaps going to a Chromebook or a Chromebox if the majority of their programs are hosted. I mean by 2017 that company might just go all tablets with docking stations or Chromebooks to save money and make things more mobile.

I still think Windows 8 was a terrible blunder at a time when a single mistake like that lets your rivals steam right past you. Gone are the days where you can lay an egg like Windows Vista and still hold the top spot until you can get Windows 7 out there. 

The Surface looks like an also-ran and Windows 8 in general seems reviled by many. Also the Windows Phone offerings looks like something you will walk past in order to pick up a Samsung product. There is too much creative destruction in tech nowadays (and think how bad it will be in 2017) to make many mistakes in execution.