There seems to be lots of bad news for them on the horizon.
Whether we like it or not, globalization has changed the paradigm of the computing system. While in the US we are pushing for more powerful computing systems on a lightweight universal platform, in the emerging markets just the opposite is happening. Cheaper systems on heavier, simpler platforms are bought at a greater volume. On these computers speed is not an issue, and consumers are more than happy to spend less to buy a slower computer as long as it is simple to use. Many older consumers are used to the windows "desktop" and will find it difficult to learn the subtleties of using a MacOS computer.
They may be stuck in a value trap for a few quarters depending on what Americans do in the near future. I mean this article is right in that the emerging market (the market that is still growing) is adopting cheap Netbooks like what HP and Lenovo are peddling. The emerging market is not looking to buy higher priced machines that *might* provide a cooler experience but costs too much to be practical.
If Apple gets in on this category then they would have to compete on price and that will reduce their margin. Then you will see the be forced to transition from a growth company with value added products to a commodity computer concern like HP or Dell.
However I see an opportunity here. If they can put out a Netbook like they have been rumored to be doing but sell it using the idea of a "Mac for The Whole World" they just might succeed. They can enlist Bono and promote the idea that selling Apple Netbooks in the emerging market helps people close the digital divide.
So in other words have Apple do commercials where Bono hands out Apple Netbooks (call them Apple One-World Mac's) to people in Vietnam or Burkina Faso and promises them that they can get on the Net and join the world community. Make these things dirt cheap, economically friendly and take a loss at first in order to pour them into the emerging market by the boatload.
Apple will be trying to "close the digital divide" so they can justify selling them cheaply. These One-World PCs are basically there to cement a stripped down Apple OS X as the "emerging market OS." Tons of young Vietnamese kids will be hitting the web and on OS X instead of on Windows. They will have instant brand loyalty going forward. As their economy grows they just might own an IPod and an IPhone in a few years.
Plus these emerging consumers who are "closing the digital divide" can buy cheap apps via the One-World App store and a One-World ITunes. A few Vietnamese Dong buys you an MP3 of a local rock band or even some American music. Add this to the billions of people that don't buy anything on the web and you have a long tail revenue model out of nothing. In other words the One-World Mac would be a Trojan Horse into the "ILifestyle" for the part of the world that the Internet has missed.
Think of all the positive press that they would get for cementing their brand in the world. Hell, if Obama becomes President he might even bank-roll some of the One-World PCs rollout so that Apple's margin doesn't need to suffer. We might even see Apple become a bigger world name then Coke in a decade or so.
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