Wednesday, August 06, 2014

People Suck at Figuring Out Risk: They Fear the Rare and Ignore the Common

These numbers kind of blew me away.

How many miles would you have to drive by car until the risk of dying is the same as in a nonstop flight? I have asked this to dozens of expert audiences. The answers are all over the place: one thousand miles, ten thousand miles, driving three times around the world. However, the best estimate is twelve miles. Yes, only twelve. If your car makes it safely to the airport, the most dangerous part of your trip is likely already behind you.

Yeah 12 miles. This article also points out that more people die in car crashes in 5 hours than have died all this year in airplane crashes. This part is stunning as well:

Ebola has also been in the news this week, scaring people around the world. Ebola has killed 1,590 people since it was identified in the 1970s, according to the World Health Organization. Measles -- which faces a vaccination backlash -- kills about as many people every 96 hours.

Yet there is all sorts of fear factor when it comes to the Ebola outbreak. There is no talk of the measles outbreak and how deaths will go up considerably if people stop vaccinating their children. But there is no cure for ebola and there is a cure for measles so of course people are scared to death of it.

A case in point can be drawn from Hawaii and 2 hurricanes bearing down on us. I heard on the news there is like a 5% chance of there being winds over 50 miles per hour. So what do people do? They rush to Costco and stock up on tons of bottled water and noodles. At Sam's Club there were lines that went the length of the store to pay for something that will probably not be needed. Also I wonder if these people bought piles of bottled water when we had a Tsunami about a year ago? I mean water doesn't go bad. I guess this is where you get the term sheeple from.

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