Economy:
1. There will be 3% GDP growth by the end of the year as companies have
more of an idea of what their taxes and hiring costs will be. Obamacare
is not the debacle as many fear and its pull on the economy is not felt
by many Americans. The $800 Obamacare Tax Penalty will quietly be
repealed with changes to the bill tacked onto a different piece of
legislation.
Well missed this one
because GDP growth was 4% and Obamacare is a big fat debacle by any
measure. The Obamacare tax is still in place but with diktats from the
White House it might be delayed past the midterms at least.
2. Banks will have record profits during 2013. Having large cash hordes
and an incentive to start loaning money out will bring billions of
dollars in profit into the banks. Many banks will be enriched by the
same things that made them money before the bailout. Private banking
will flourish in 2013.
Hit this one right on the nose.
Banks are doing very well and might be doing even better in 2014 as
interest rates rise so they make more money on loans with the FED still
keeping rates low. Private Banking seemed to be about the same as it has
ever been.
3. Hedge Funds lose quite a bit of their luster as their outsized gains
disappear. There are record redemptions as rich people pull their money
out and chase after tax free yield. Municipal bonds and Master Limited
Partnerships become very popular since they avoid higher capital gains
tax rates that come out of Washington deal-making. Dividends become less
popular and stock buybacks soar.
Hedge funds seem to be trailing the stock market by a large margin
as the market soars. Other high flying funds though have been hurt
badly by being in the wrong thing (gold) or messing up timing the
market. Municipal Bond prices have dropped though due to uncertainty in Washington. Stock buybacks did soar in 2013 with a few from huge firms like Apple and IBM.
4. The Apple TV becomes the most talked about new tech product of 2013
as it challenges the idea of Internet connected TV. Saving TV shows to
ICloud and viewing movies from the Apple Store challenges Netflix and
Amazon. People cancelling their cable becomes even more widespread than
before. Windows 8 is a dismal failure and hastens the demise of the
desktop as we know it. A big screen attached to a tablet or a smartphone
becomes the new PC form factor of 2013.
No
Apple TV as they just pretty much just put out upgrades of their
existing lines. A new iPhone and a new iPad is pretty much it for 2013.
They also benefited from a deal with China Mobile but Samsung is pretty
much the big winner for 2013. Cutting the cord is a real issue to the cable companies and they seem to be running scared. Windows 8 was a dismal failure by most measures and the desktop is slowly bleeding out.
5. There will be a Facebook and Twitter backlash as many people tire of
having to update their lives and document it for people they barely
know. Saying "I don't have Facebook" becomes a new way of being hip
instead of being luddite. The social revolution hits a definite snag in
2013 as people cease to see the point.
This
was unfortunately not true as Facebook and Twitter grows like weeds. The
Twitter IPO is huge and Facebook stock is at an all-time high. Plus
they seem to be making money as advertisers pour money into their mobile
platforms. Younger people are kind of moving away from Facebook into other social networks though.
6. Here are the end of 2013 numbers (These numbers as of today:)
Dow: 13400 (16479, way off)
NASDAQ: 3210 (4167, really way off)
S&P 500: 1410 (1842 off again by 400 points)
Eur/Dollar: 0.84 (1.37 the exact opposite)
10 Year Bond: 2.58% (2.99% not too bad)
Gold: $1640 an ounce ($1210 this was a big miss)
Oil: $85 a barrel ($99.64)
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