Tuesday, February 05, 2013

Corporate Bonds Might Be Headed for Dangerous Waters

It seems that the bond market has changed in the past few years and it might be much more dangerous than ever before.

Mikkelsen estimates that a 2.5 percent yield would lead to what he would consider an orderly move out of the market, but a continued trek higher past 3.0 percent would be the game-changer.

BofA is not alone in its aversion to fixed income - Wells Fargo recently cautioned its clients about fixed income amid dangers from rising rates, and advised shifting 5 percent of their bond positions into stocks.
What this guy is afraid of is that mutual funds and ETF hold trillions in bonds and a "disorderly" run for the door will trigger big redemptions that will take bond prices lower. I can see it happening if interest rates surge as many have said. Many investors will sell their bond ETF holdings and get into stocks. The ETF companies will have to sell their bonds to give these people their cash and it becomes a vicious cycle taking bond prices lower. It might be time to sell my junk bond ETF and get back in after the dust clears.

No comments: