Tuesday, January 08, 2013

Bond Yields Creep Slowly Northward: Debt Bomb Now Armed

Well I think we need some serious fiscal restraint because these numbers are really quite scary.

The national debt would also be affected.  Using the CBO baseline calculations at a blended 2%, the 2022 national debt will have grown to $31.4 trillion.  A simple reversion to the mean historical interest rate of 5% would grow the national debt to $40 trillion by 2022, assuming that spending is frozen at current levels.

That "frozen at current levels" is funny when you look at how the government spends money like it is water. Our GDP is $15 trillion so debt would exactly double our GDP. In other words we will become Japan by 2022. The scary part is that the GDP of the entire world is $69.97 trillion so we would have more than half of the worlds GDP in debt alone. In other words I'm pretty sure there aren't enough buyers to cover upwards of $25 trillion in added debt.   

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