Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Pakistan Enters a Critical Phase: Will Now Battle the Taliban

Well, the Taliban is now on the move because fhe truce has broken down between themselves and the government.

The collapse of a 3-month-old truce with the Taliban means Pakistan will now have to fight to regain control of the Swat Valley, testing the ability of its stretched military and the resolve of civilian leaders who until recently were insisting the insurgents could be partners in peace. The government feared the refugee exodus could reach 500,000.

Now we will see if the Pakistan's government will hold up or not. My money is on a military coup d'état in the next few weeks unless they are able to smash the Taliban quickly. If they run into any heavy resistance there will be a vote of no confidence followed by marital law. The part I fear though is that the Taliban will seize missile silos in the confusion. That will end any land battle in one fell swoop.

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