S&P500 Drop Could Be Recession "Tell"

This commentator thinks that the S&P500s peak a few months back and the subsequent drop is indication of a looming recession. This S&P500 "tell" is 8-1 since 1953 so it might be an interesting thing to check out. So this means that we have another 7.4% more to drop before we reach that 16.9% price decline from peak to trough.

(1)The S&P 500 Index is a leading indicator par excellence. Since
the 1950s, the Index has always peaked before the peak of a business cycle, with
the 1980 business cycle being the only exception. The Index has established a
trough prior to the end of a recession without exception.
(2)The median percentage decline of the Index from its peak to trough was 16.9%.