Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Is Wilbur Ross the "Rich Dude" that Bond Insurers Need?

Wilbur Ross was buying those steel companies when they were crap, then he was into auto parts companies when they were almost bankrupt, and now maybe he might pick up those distressed Bond insurers for cents on the dollar.
But I believe what was even bigger than the rate cut for some of these banks
was the possibility that we would not have another round of big losses, this
time from a lack of insurance, because the grave dancing Wilbur Ross indicated
he is choosing a bond insurer -- or bond insurers? -- to save with a big
investment or takeover.

I think he might be after that muni insurance business because it looks like pretty easy money since municipal bond default rates are like 1.93% since 1970. It would be interesting to look under the hood at Ambac and MBIA and see just how much bad debt is on their books and how much they would have to write down. Perhaps, Ross has done this already and likes what he sees. Cramer talks about the prior bailouts failing in his article above but this bailout needs to happen or we might see some big banks going out of business since they could no longer raise debt or keep themselves in AAA status.

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