One of the fun things about running this blog for multiple years is that I can look back at the predictions I had for the past year to see how I'm doing. Here is a recap:
Politics:
1. Gridlock in Washington : Yeeap (in the words of that asshole guy on Storage Wars) The only thing that came out of Washington in 2011 was a bunch of rhetoric and people not doing anything. That is usually good for the market but stupid European debt dashed any rally.
2. Debt Ceiling Fight: Yeeap; That was an easy call though.
3. Supreme Court Ruling on Obamacare (TBA) this one isn't over yet
4. Big names for GOP nod: Right on Gingrich, Pawlenty running, and Palin not running. Was wrong on Ryan, Cantor and Patreus running.
Economy:
1. Recovering Economy: much slower than my prediction mostly due to Obama being in office and the massive debt he has put onto us. Also the damn Eurozone (minus Germany and France) gorging on debt and not wanting to pay their credit card bills.
2. Stock market rises. European debt shenanigans smashed this prediction.
3. Unemployment drops to 8%, we dipped into it a few times in 2011 but not enough to matter much.
4. Europe Limping along with Germany leading the pack. No defaults. Yeeap. This was a pretty easy call seeing how bad Greece, Italy, Spain, etc. have screwed up their economies with high debt and freebies to everyone.
5. Emerging market growth. This is still kind of happening but it is a little muted due to European slowdown and its knock-on effects
6. Prediction: Actual
Dow: 13,200 12,287
NASDAQ: 3500 2,613
S&P500: 1700 1,263
GDP Growth: 4.5% 1.8%
Gold: $1150 $1547
Silver: $25.50 $27.87
Oil: $98 $99.66
Entertainment:
1. Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie still an item.
2. American Idol and Survivor have low ratings compared to past seasons. TV is still dominated by NCIS: various and the Law and Orders on NBC are all but finished on TV with only SVU limping along. I give this prediction a Yeaap
3. Facebook Backlash and Twitter drop off. This is a partial Yeeap since it seems that growth is starting to slow just in time for the IPO. Zynga's damp squib IPO also shows that social network gaming may not be the money spinner that people have though in the past. I guess attending your fake crops is only fun for a few months and then it becomes a chore that is easily forgotten.
4. Tablet market divided between Apple and Google. This is a full Yeeup because it is pretty much Apple vs Google fighting on a mountaintop surrounded by the dying corpses of Sony, and Blackberry and everyone else that made a tablet that is now so much garbage. Amazon is hanging in there though.
Sports:
I'm still not a good predictor of who will win what in the sporting world. I went a solid O-fer:
1. The following teams win:
Prediction: Actual:
College Football National Title: Oregon Auburn
College Basketball National Title: Syracuse UConn
NFL: New England Patriots Green Bay Packers
NBA: San Antonio Spurs Dallas Mavericks
MLB: Philadelphia Phillies St. Louis Cardinals
NASCAR: Jimmie Johnson Tony Stewart
NHL: Detroit Red Wings Boston Bruins
Premier League Title: Chelsea Manchester United
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