Monday, June 16, 2008

Buy RIMM Even When it is Nearing the 52 week High?

I saw that RIMM is up 8 points today. It is interesting that Jim Cramer and the Fast Money guy Najarian are both talking about the stock on the same day.

On Research In Motion , Cramer predicted shares top the current 52-week high and hit $150. RIM is one of the very few tech stocks the Mad Money host likes as more than just a trade. Even though it has 40 times the market share of the BlackBerry maker, Nokia suffers from a lack of momentum in a market that is entirely momentum-driven, Cramer said. RIM is simply “the one.”

The interesting thing about the smart phone industry is that there seems to be only 3 main players in the US. They are RIMM, Apple's IPhone and the Palm Treo. According to this article RIMM has 42% market share, Palm has 16% and IPhone has 9%. I would bet that the $299 3G IPhone will have Apple easily passing Palm by the end of the year.

I think within a few years we might just see IPhones vs. Blackberries as the only choices when it comes to smart phones. So you can see that in this space we have 2 very strong companies competing over a fast growing industry with a wide moat. Unless Nokia comes out with a real game changing phone then this will probably be the scenario for years to come.

Also I would argue that both companies are fairly recession proof unless there is a massive downturn. Apple makes a coveted good that people love to use and people actually strive to own. You can never underestimate the power of selling something that people wait in line to buy even when they already own one. I mean the IPhone is only a year old and people are already going to go back to the store to buy a new one. While RIMM has deep penetration into the corporate world and has transitioned seamlessly into the consumer space.

It is interesting that both companies will now be competing for each others base customers. Apple has added features like the Exchange E-mail push and the Developer Suite that should appeal to corporations. While RIMM has added a camera and changed the from factor of their newest Blackberries to appeal to consumers.

With smartphone growth in the 29.3% range you can't go wrong in this space. Both companies have strong bases to call on and make products that people actually love. I guess the best way to play it is just buy RIMM and AAPL and sit back.

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