Friday, December 29, 2017
I'm loving @Axios: It really feels like an Old School Newspaper
Well I have been using Axios as my front page news source now that Yahoo News seems to be liberal screed all day long. I love how quick the news bites are and they link to source material pretty easily. It also feels like they are sticking to "just the facts" more than any other news source. I tried Google News but there just seems to be too much of the same thing. Like very similar story seems to be shown over and over with little variation. I do still use them from time to time. However, Axios seems to have a mix of different stories that don't seem to be slanted one way or the other. I'll keep using it and see how it goes.
2018 Predictions: It's Going to be an Even Better Year than 2017!
Well its that time of year again. I will do a slate of predictions and see if they come true at the end of 2018.
Politics
1. The Dems will win a few seats in the midterms but it won't be a blue wave like they think. The Senate will be split 50/50 with Pence being the swing vote. There is an actual call for bipartisanship but only a few things get done.
2. DACA gets done within a larger fight for immigration reform. It is mostly used as a bargaining chip to get the wall build. Trump settles for a partial win with an electronic wall instead of an actual physical wall. He calls it the "greatest wall ever built." The Chinese scoff.
3. The infrastructure bill gets passed but it is far short of the $1 trillion dollars that was called for in the Trump campaign. The GOP cannot come out against it as deficit hawks after a $1.5 trillion dollar tax cut.
4. Sexual allegations sweep through Washington and claims a number of high profile Congress-critters. However, there is a backlash as the accused go on the offensive asking for their due process rights. Only a handful actual resign. The sexual allegations move to the sports world as a new wave of revulsion grips America.
5. Trumps tweets become less important as America enjoys the prosperity that the tax cuts bring in. Outrage turns to ephemera as things like Prince Harry's wedding overshadows Trump hate. Colbert and other Trump-haters ratings dip.
World
1. There are talks between North Korea and the US brokered by Dennis Rodman of all people. There is a "Nixon goes to China" moment as Trump and Kim meet in Beijing. A deal is struck as North Korea backs down. There is no hot war in Asia.
2. Saudis and Iran start to move away from a strict interpretation of Islam and start to move toward a rapprochement. They both move to diversify away from oil with Saudi Aramco's IPO being one of the biggest of all time. Mohammad Bin Salman becomes the man of the year.
3. Terror attacks and warfare with the Islamic world starts to slow considerably. The world moves into a more peaceful period.
4. European Countries start to cut taxes to compete with America. This creates a global positive feedback loop that lifts all boats. Economic growth is unheard of since the 50s as capital starts to flow all over the place. This causes an inflation scare that takes the market down in March. However, it recovers and it sees highs it has never seen in decades.
5. Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies crash as everyone jams the exits at the same time. This causes another market pullback but it soon recovers and reaches long term highs again.
Economic Predictions
S&P 500: 3,000
Dow: 27,000
NASDAQ: 7,100
Russell 2000: 1,650
Bitcoin: $800
Crude Oil: $68
Gold: $1320
EUR/Dollar: $1.10
10 Year Bond: 2.55
Sports Predictions:
NFL: Philadelphia Eagles
NBA: Boston Celtics
MLB: New York Yankees
Premier League: Arsenal
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich
NCAA Football: Georgia Bulldogs
NCAA Basketball: Duke
Top 5 Grossing Movies:
1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Incredibles 2
3. Deadpool 2
4. Black Panther
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Politics
1. The Dems will win a few seats in the midterms but it won't be a blue wave like they think. The Senate will be split 50/50 with Pence being the swing vote. There is an actual call for bipartisanship but only a few things get done.
2. DACA gets done within a larger fight for immigration reform. It is mostly used as a bargaining chip to get the wall build. Trump settles for a partial win with an electronic wall instead of an actual physical wall. He calls it the "greatest wall ever built." The Chinese scoff.
3. The infrastructure bill gets passed but it is far short of the $1 trillion dollars that was called for in the Trump campaign. The GOP cannot come out against it as deficit hawks after a $1.5 trillion dollar tax cut.
4. Sexual allegations sweep through Washington and claims a number of high profile Congress-critters. However, there is a backlash as the accused go on the offensive asking for their due process rights. Only a handful actual resign. The sexual allegations move to the sports world as a new wave of revulsion grips America.
5. Trumps tweets become less important as America enjoys the prosperity that the tax cuts bring in. Outrage turns to ephemera as things like Prince Harry's wedding overshadows Trump hate. Colbert and other Trump-haters ratings dip.
World
1. There are talks between North Korea and the US brokered by Dennis Rodman of all people. There is a "Nixon goes to China" moment as Trump and Kim meet in Beijing. A deal is struck as North Korea backs down. There is no hot war in Asia.
2. Saudis and Iran start to move away from a strict interpretation of Islam and start to move toward a rapprochement. They both move to diversify away from oil with Saudi Aramco's IPO being one of the biggest of all time. Mohammad Bin Salman becomes the man of the year.
3. Terror attacks and warfare with the Islamic world starts to slow considerably. The world moves into a more peaceful period.
4. European Countries start to cut taxes to compete with America. This creates a global positive feedback loop that lifts all boats. Economic growth is unheard of since the 50s as capital starts to flow all over the place. This causes an inflation scare that takes the market down in March. However, it recovers and it sees highs it has never seen in decades.
5. Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies crash as everyone jams the exits at the same time. This causes another market pullback but it soon recovers and reaches long term highs again.
Economic Predictions
S&P 500: 3,000
Dow: 27,000
NASDAQ: 7,100
Russell 2000: 1,650
Bitcoin: $800
Crude Oil: $68
Gold: $1320
EUR/Dollar: $1.10
10 Year Bond: 2.55
Sports Predictions:
NFL: Philadelphia Eagles
NBA: Boston Celtics
MLB: New York Yankees
Premier League: Arsenal
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich
NCAA Football: Georgia Bulldogs
NCAA Basketball: Duke
Top 5 Grossing Movies:
1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Incredibles 2
3. Deadpool 2
4. Black Panther
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
2017 Predictions a Look back.
Here are how my predictions for 2017 came out.
Politics
1. Donald Trump will have a whirlwind 100 days and will have one of the more successful runs in modern times. He leaves much of the heavily lifting to his talented cabinet and goes after minutiae with his Twitter account and phone. There will be a rise of the Trump Twitter-ologists like the Kremlin-ologists of old who pick over his Tweets looking for hidden meanings and such. All in all at the end of the year America would be well on the way to prosperity that it hasn't seen in more than 16 years.
Got this one correct except his 100 days was a whirlwind of suck. He was a divisive force with his Twitter driving the MSM crazy. People do watch the Twitter like a pack of crazy people as well.
2. There is a huge fight over the next Supreme Court nominee as the Dems make their stand on this issue. There is much character assassination and back-and-forth but Scalia's seat goes to another person in his same mold but far younger. This person turns out to not be as conservative as many think.
Hmm time will tell with Neil Gorsuch but he pretty much skated in because the Senate got rid of their gentleman rules.
3. Black Lives matter leaves the stage as the racial animus in the country slowly recedes. By the end of the year there are less cop deaths and less deaths by violence by young African Americans. Crime levels slow go back to normal as the cops go back about their business with less fear.
Black Lives matter is still around but their voice seems much muted. Also police deaths went from 141 to 128 so that is certainly positive.
4. The main stream media suffers cracks that they never had before as CNN, Fox, and MSNBC and the various newspapers become less important to the zeitgeist. Viewership is way down as American's enjoys the prosperity that the Trump era brings in. Many Americans are energized as consumer confidence and other measures are way up by the end of the year.
The MSM is pretty much morphed into the opposition party for Trump. However I was wrong that viewership is down. It seems to be way up for certain networks.
5. Hillary Clinton is not hear from very much but Obama seems to be everywhere as the left holds on to the last popular thing they seem to have left. Young Bernie supporters slowly remake the Democrat party as they stay involved in the process.
Hillary was woefully front and center while Obama seems to have vanished. I got this one wrong.
World
1. Russia moves back in the Great Power spotlight as they now have a man in the White House that apologizes for their misdeeds. They solidify gains in the Levant and form a partnership with the US to eliminate ISIS. Russia slowly moves their neighbors into their Sphere of Influence by undermining elections to but pro-Putin people in charge. Russia deftly plays the Great Game and looks powerful and influential by the end of the year.
This one is spot on since ISIS is no longer a major threat. The Russians have moved right back into the Great Power status since they have moved into every Democrats worst nightmare. After "stealing the election."
2. North Korea collapses as Kim tries to hold onto power by eliminating everyone he can. It is not enough as the Red Chinese backed junta takes control of the Hermit Kingdom. The Red Chinese dominate North Korea and move their Sphere of Influence outward.
North Korea is still in the hands of a "rocketman" Kim. I do think the Chinese are operating behind the scenes to make North Korea back down though.
3. The Red Chinese still rattle the sabre in the South China sea and various places in the world but there is a rapprochement with the Trump White House (that is still weird to say) by the end of the year. The USA and China work on a long term trade and security deal that is unprecedented. There is no Trade War and oddly enough Trump turns out to be the best thing Red China ever got in the White House.
No Trade war so far and Trump and Xi Jinping seem to get along pretty well. There was some tough tweets for a while but that seems to have died down.
4. The Syrian Civil war is totally over by the end of the year as ISIS is destroyed by Russia and the USA working with Turkey. Assad stays in power and rebuilding starts in earnest as Russian petro-dollars pour into a solid place on the Mediterranean. Catherine the Greats dream is finally realized by the richest KGB agent to have ever lived.
Syrian Civil war is over with Russia, Assad, the US, and a few tough Kurds whipped ISIS and sent them packing. Now what will peace look like?
5. Israel and the UN continue to spar but the problem seems to recede by the end of the year. Israel and the Palestinians find themselves in peace for much of the year.
Other than a few thrown rocks it seems that there is relative peace in the region. I did not see us moving our embassy to Jerusalem though. That is pretty wild and might actual lead to a peace deal now that America is 100% pro-Israel.
Economic Predictions:
S&P 500: 2750 2673
Dow: 22,000 24719
NASDAQ: 5800 6903
Russell 2000: 1510 1535
Crude Oil: $75 $ 60.10
Gold: $1200 $ 1305
EUR/Dollar: $0.98 $ 1.20
10 Year Bond: 2.75 $ 2.40
Sports Predictions:
NFL: Patriots Patriots
NBA: Golden State Warriors Golden State
MLB: Cleveland Indians Houston Astros
Premier League: Chelsea Chelsea
Bundesliga: Hertha Berlin Bayern Munich
NCAA Football: Clemson Clemson
NCAA Basketball: UCLA North Carolina
Politics
1. Donald Trump will have a whirlwind 100 days and will have one of the more successful runs in modern times. He leaves much of the heavily lifting to his talented cabinet and goes after minutiae with his Twitter account and phone. There will be a rise of the Trump Twitter-ologists like the Kremlin-ologists of old who pick over his Tweets looking for hidden meanings and such. All in all at the end of the year America would be well on the way to prosperity that it hasn't seen in more than 16 years.
Got this one correct except his 100 days was a whirlwind of suck. He was a divisive force with his Twitter driving the MSM crazy. People do watch the Twitter like a pack of crazy people as well.
2. There is a huge fight over the next Supreme Court nominee as the Dems make their stand on this issue. There is much character assassination and back-and-forth but Scalia's seat goes to another person in his same mold but far younger. This person turns out to not be as conservative as many think.
Hmm time will tell with Neil Gorsuch but he pretty much skated in because the Senate got rid of their gentleman rules.
3. Black Lives matter leaves the stage as the racial animus in the country slowly recedes. By the end of the year there are less cop deaths and less deaths by violence by young African Americans. Crime levels slow go back to normal as the cops go back about their business with less fear.
Black Lives matter is still around but their voice seems much muted. Also police deaths went from 141 to 128 so that is certainly positive.
4. The main stream media suffers cracks that they never had before as CNN, Fox, and MSNBC and the various newspapers become less important to the zeitgeist. Viewership is way down as American's enjoys the prosperity that the Trump era brings in. Many Americans are energized as consumer confidence and other measures are way up by the end of the year.
The MSM is pretty much morphed into the opposition party for Trump. However I was wrong that viewership is down. It seems to be way up for certain networks.
5. Hillary Clinton is not hear from very much but Obama seems to be everywhere as the left holds on to the last popular thing they seem to have left. Young Bernie supporters slowly remake the Democrat party as they stay involved in the process.
Hillary was woefully front and center while Obama seems to have vanished. I got this one wrong.
World
1. Russia moves back in the Great Power spotlight as they now have a man in the White House that apologizes for their misdeeds. They solidify gains in the Levant and form a partnership with the US to eliminate ISIS. Russia slowly moves their neighbors into their Sphere of Influence by undermining elections to but pro-Putin people in charge. Russia deftly plays the Great Game and looks powerful and influential by the end of the year.
This one is spot on since ISIS is no longer a major threat. The Russians have moved right back into the Great Power status since they have moved into every Democrats worst nightmare. After "stealing the election."
2. North Korea collapses as Kim tries to hold onto power by eliminating everyone he can. It is not enough as the Red Chinese backed junta takes control of the Hermit Kingdom. The Red Chinese dominate North Korea and move their Sphere of Influence outward.
North Korea is still in the hands of a "rocketman" Kim. I do think the Chinese are operating behind the scenes to make North Korea back down though.
3. The Red Chinese still rattle the sabre in the South China sea and various places in the world but there is a rapprochement with the Trump White House (that is still weird to say) by the end of the year. The USA and China work on a long term trade and security deal that is unprecedented. There is no Trade War and oddly enough Trump turns out to be the best thing Red China ever got in the White House.
No Trade war so far and Trump and Xi Jinping seem to get along pretty well. There was some tough tweets for a while but that seems to have died down.
4. The Syrian Civil war is totally over by the end of the year as ISIS is destroyed by Russia and the USA working with Turkey. Assad stays in power and rebuilding starts in earnest as Russian petro-dollars pour into a solid place on the Mediterranean. Catherine the Greats dream is finally realized by the richest KGB agent to have ever lived.
Syrian Civil war is over with Russia, Assad, the US, and a few tough Kurds whipped ISIS and sent them packing. Now what will peace look like?
5. Israel and the UN continue to spar but the problem seems to recede by the end of the year. Israel and the Palestinians find themselves in peace for much of the year.
Other than a few thrown rocks it seems that there is relative peace in the region. I did not see us moving our embassy to Jerusalem though. That is pretty wild and might actual lead to a peace deal now that America is 100% pro-Israel.
Economic Predictions:
S&P 500: 2750 2673
Dow: 22,000 24719
NASDAQ: 5800 6903
Russell 2000: 1510 1535
Crude Oil: $75 $ 60.10
Gold: $1200 $ 1305
EUR/Dollar: $0.98 $ 1.20
10 Year Bond: 2.75 $ 2.40
Sports Predictions:
NFL: Patriots Patriots
NBA: Golden State Warriors Golden State
MLB: Cleveland Indians Houston Astros
Premier League: Chelsea Chelsea
Bundesliga: Hertha Berlin Bayern Munich
NCAA Football: Clemson Clemson
NCAA Basketball: UCLA North Carolina
Time to Restart the Blog!
Well I think I will start Blogging again for 2018. I'll start with a look back at my predictions for 2017.
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