Friday, August 04, 2006

Could Israel Widen the Conflict?

This is an interesting article on the power of Hezbollah's anti-tank missiles which were shipped in from Iran. I wonder is Israel would be willing to widen the conflict like we did by bombing Laos in the Vietnam war. This is the passage that got me thinking about that:

The report cited Western diplomatic sources as saying that Iranian authorities promised Hezbollah a steady supply of weapons "for the next stage of the confrontation."

Top Israeli intelligence officials say they have seen Iranian Revolutionary Guard soldiers on the ground with Hezbollah troops. They say that permission to fire Hezbollah's longer-range missiles, such as those could reach Tel Aviv, would likely require Iranian go-ahead.

In other words there are Iranian Army is on the ground acting as advisors to Hezbollah. In a way it would be the Iranian Army actually helping fire missiles on Tel Aviv. It seems to be exactly how the US served as advisors to the SVA in the Vietnam war.

In any case this is a very interesting gambit for Iran to play. They use a proxy army to get Israel stuck into a war that is turning further against them with every civilian that they accidentally kill. Iran knows they have world opinion on their side since only the US is in Israel's corner. Our credibility is shot to hell and we are in our own quicksand in Iraq so we really can't put much more then token pressure on Iran, Hezbollah, or anyone for that matter.

Iran also has a chance to showcase their top-of-the-line weapons in actual combat situations. This is very much like how the Nazis supplied Fascist Spain with tanks and planes during the Spanish Civil War. Iran has shown that they might have the tech know-how to defeat Israel in strait-up fight on the ground.

Iran just needs to figure out a way to neutralize Israel's air superiority. Maybe they would go with a first strike of Israeli Air Bases and try to knock out as many planes as they could while they are still on the ground. Maybe they could follow up with a Syrian led invasion into Israel betting that the US won't put troops in to protect Israel.

Maybe it would be a better idea to bide their time until Hillary gets into the White House and we cut and run in Iraq. She would most likely abandon Israel when Iranian Rockets rain down and Syrian Tanks cut their nation in two. I can see the Looney Left running around with "No Blood for Israel" signs and Syrian flags on their cars.

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