Friday, January 30, 2009

Michael Steel Elected GOP Chairman

He seems like a pretty decent choice for GOP chairman according to his background. He was an Air Force brat, has a international relations degree from Johns Hopkins and was a seminarian for 3 years. Then he pursued a law degree from Georgetown. Then he was a lawyer and then Lt. Governor of Maryland then failed at a Senate bid. He also has some fire in his belly as well judging from these comments:

"We're going to say to friend and foe alike: We want you to be a part of us, we want you to be with us, and for those who wish to obstruct, get ready to get knocked over," Steele said.

I'm just waiting for the MSM to say that Steele got the job because he was black. Just like how the New York Times said that Sarah Palin got the VP nomination because she was a woman.

O.K., the women thing might have been a little bit of a selling point. Not nearly so much as the national guard commandership, of course. But if the millions of Democratic women who are still ticked off at Obama for stepping in front of Hillary in the line want to look elsewhere ...

Obama Creates Middle Class "Task Force"

It seems that this could have been part of Biden's stipulations on being the VP because he will be heading this thing up.

Obama set several goals for the task force, including expanding opportunities for education and training; improving the work-family balance; restoring labor standards, including workplace safety; and protecting retirement security.

The president and vice president said the task force will include the secretaries of commerce, education, labor, and health and human services because those Cabinet departments have the most influence on the well-being of the middle class. It also will include White House advisers on the economy, the budget and domestic policy.

Biden pledged that the task force will conduct its business in the open, and announced a Web site, http://www.astrongmiddleclass.gov, for the public to get information. He also announced that the panel's first meeting will be Feb. 27 in Philadelphia and will focus on environmental or "green jobs."

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Amazon Kills Numbers: Could they be Cloud Computing King?

Now this is a real recession proof stock all right.

In North America, Amazon’s total sales rose 18 per cent, contrasting with the overall 3 per cent decline in US holiday e-commerce sales estimated by ComScore Media Metrics this month.

Amazon’s global net sales also rose 18 per cent to $6.7bn. International sales – including the UK, France, Germany, Japan and China – rose 19 per cent to $3.07bn. At constant currency rates, the international sales would have risen 31 per cent.

So their revenue rose 18% in the US and if not for dollar strength they would have gained 31% overseas? That is just nuts during a recession like this. It seems like Amazon and Netflix are the recipients of this nesting and hunkering down as people lose their jobs.

It would be interesting to see a breakdown on how many people are using their Amazon Prime service to buy everyday goods at a discount. It might be time to ride the Amazon rocket again because this stock trades great whenever they blow out numbers like this. This part is especially interesting as well.

Bezos said the environment was now ripe for Amazon to begin discussing providing web services for larger companies. Amazon provides a cloud computing platform that offers far-flung users access to storage and computing power in Amazon's data center.

"People in this macro environment, they're looking for ways to save money and cloud computing does that. There's a lot that can be done there," Bezos said, calling it a "silver lining" in the grim economic environment.

This is a high margin business because you are pretty much charging companies to store data and run applications on Amazons trusted servers. Amazon has the infrastructure in place so all they have to do is sign up companies that want to cut costs and they get a nice fat revenue stream in the process. Why would think that a web retailer has the chance to become the "king of cloud computing?"

Senator McConnell Tells it Like it is to GOP

I have to agree with some of the sentiments of Sen. McConnell.

McConnell called for the GOP to embrace its conservative principles — and resist diluting its message — to bring people back and attract new rank-and-file. Still, he added: "It's clear our message isn't getting out to nearly as many people as it should ... Too often we've let others define us. And the image they've painted isn't very pretty."

He acknowledged GOP fears that certain demographics from certain regions have shunned the party. And, he warned: "In politics, there's a name for a regional party: it's called a minority party."

I have to agree that the GOP needs to cleave back to conservative principles of small government, no more meddling in the private lives of Americans, low taxes for everyone, and a strong military presence in the world.

Also the letting others define them is as big a problem as any. The MSM has painted the GOP as a bunch of white war mongers, who torture people, and are listening to peoples private phone calls. The GOP is also portrayed as religious nutjobs who care more about gays getting married then they do about what the majority of Americans care about.

They aren't even the party of the rich anymore since billionaire hedge fund guys and upper middle class exurbanites are all switching to the Dems. They are currently the party of rural America and the South.

I think the demeanor of the party needs to go from Dick Cheney to Mike Huckabee. That means the GOP needs to be civil, respectful, and push their issues with a quiet forcefulness. No more in-your-face neocon wrestling matches.

When someone like Bill Maher says that Martin Luther King was deranged because of his religious beliefs Huckabee just said paraphrasing "do you really believe Dr. King was mentally insane?" Don't attack Maher as a person but attack his beliefs. Assume the Dems are nice enough people but they are just strait-up wrong when it comes to some things. Then go about telling people why the Republican way of doing things is better.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Stimulus Bill Passes the House: $819 Billion Final Tally

Now that is a lot of money but it seems that the Senate Bill may be much more palatable to GOP members.

Already a more bipartisan — and costlier — measure is taking shape in the Senate, and Obama personally pledged to House and Senate Republicans in closed-door meetings on Tuesday that he is ready to accept modifications as the legislation advances.

Rahm Emanuel, a former Illinois congressman who is Obama's chief of staff, invited nearly a dozen House Republicans to the White House late Tuesday for what one participant said was a soft sales job.

If there are no business tax cuts in this thing then I think it will just be a half-measure that won't prevent businesses from shedding yet more workers. It seems that the FED is working on the mortage side and the Congress is working on juicing the supply side. Let's hope John Maynard Keynes is right because $819 billion is quite a price to pay to be wrong.

Obama Disses Washington DC's Toughness

It he is critcal of Washington DC closing schools because of ice he must really be down on how Hawaii shut down schools and the entire state government because there was the threat of possible wind.

"Can I make a comment that is unrelated to the economy very quickly?" the new president told reporters at a gathering with business leaders. "And it has to do with Washington. My children's school was canceled today. Because of, what? Some ice?"

The president said he wasn't the only one who was incredulous.

"As my children pointed out, in Chicago, school is never canceled," Obama said to laughter. "In fact, my 7-year-old pointed out that you'd go outside for recess. You wouldn't even stay indoors. So, I don't know. We're going to have to try to apply some flinty Chicago toughness."

FED Thinking of Rewriting Mortgages

I'm glad the FED is now thinking of entering the mortgage work-out business.

Under the program, the Fed has a number of options to provide relief, including lowering the amount the homeowner owes on the mortgage, reducing the interest rate or lengthening the term of the loan.

It's unclear how many homeowners would benefit. However, the relief plan would apply to the billions of dollars of mortgage assets the Fed is holding on its books because of last year's bailouts of Bear Stearns and insurer American International Group.

I guess they can do that because they actually own these mortgages so they can do whatever they want to them to keep people out of foreclosure. I guess it is the FED equivalent of changing someones interest rate on a credit card. This was kind of funny though:

The Fed's Bear Stearns' portfolio is valued at $27 billion, although the central bank doesn't say how much of that is in home mortgages. The Fed's AIG assets include one portfolio valued at nearly $20 billion of residential mortgage-backed securities and a second portfolio valued at nearly $27 billion of collateralized debt obligations, which are complex financial instruments that combine various slices of debt.

I wonder how many of the home mortgages that the FED owns are covered by that $20 billion in mortgage backed securities? If it is a large amount then they are working both sides of the trade. They fix the mortgages by changing the interest rates or decreasing the amount that the person owes and then they reap the benefits when the security goes back up due to the reduction in default risk. Oh the power of a monopolist bank.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Obama Meets with GOP Leaders over Stimulus

I hope Boehner and the GOP firmly outlined their own middle class tax cut plan to Obama in this meeting. I want to see people making less then $33,950 but more then $8,350 get a larger then $500 tax cut. The GOP Tax Cut really does cut taxes for the middle class who are hurting from the recession.

"We think the country needs a stimulus," McConnell said on NBC's "Today" show. But he also said that he believes most people do not believe recovery be accomplished through projects like "fixing up the Mall," a reference to funding to repair the National Mall in Washington. He said Republicans want a bill that devotes 40 percent of its total to tax cuts.

Monday, January 26, 2009

Obama Needs to Go Back to Harvard and Take Professors Barro's Economics Class

All this talk of Keynesian multipliers the Obama Team has been throwing around has got some economists refuting his line of thinking. I was never sure how spending $800 billion was going to create 4 million jobs so I did a little research. It seems that Prof. Barro would rather take these actions instead:

Much more focus should be on incentives for people and businesses to invest, produce and work. On the tax side, we should avoid programs that throw money at people and emphasize instead reductions in marginal income-tax rates -- especially where these rates are already high and fall on capital income. Eliminating the federal corporate income tax would be brilliant. On the spending side, the main point is that we should not be considering massive public-works programs that do not pass muster from the perspective of cost-benefit analysis. Just as in the 1980s, when extreme supply-side views on tax cuts were unjustified, it is wrong now to think that added government spending is free.

In other words Prof. Barro is saying that a one-time $500 tax credit isn't such a good idea. Instead marginal taxes should be reduced for the middle class so they can use that money to buy things or invest. So instead of taking $2 of every $10 a person makes the IRS takes only $1 leaving you with an extra dollar to spend or invest that you didn't have before. I can see Americans appreciating a few hundred in each paycheck for years instead of seeing $500 in one chunk.

Also getting rid of corporate income tax would save some companies billions of dollars that they could use to retain workers or expand their businesses. Maybe the stimulus could enact a plan that a company does not have to pay corporate income tax if they agree to keep a certain amount of workers employed. Call it a Layoff Cap on employee firings. Or they can use that money to pay down debt or to ramp up R&D or something. As long as they don't hoard the money in their cash accounts it will stimulate growth.

I also agree that any new public works projects need to be looked at under a microscope in order to catch bridges to nowhere lurking out there. That money needs to be used only when it can have some kind of tangible benefit from the project. So a bridge about to fall down or a collapsing sewer system needs to be given the money instead of some park, fountain, or a bridge to 800 people on some island.

That bad highway building is what sunk the Japanese stimulus efforts in the 90s. They spent billions on projects that the Japan Highway Public Corporation wanted and not on things that people actually needed. So they ended up with massive highways that no one uses both due to super high toll prices and from competition from one of the best rapid transit systems in the world. If they used that money to cut their corporate taxes then who knows what good would have come from it?

Just As I Suspected: War Coverage Starting to Soften

I knew that if Obama won we will start getting more human interest stories out of American war zones and this is one.

One person determined to inject some normalcy into their lives is Oliver Percovich. A 34-year-old from Melbourne, Australia, he plans to open this country’s first skateboarding school, Skateistan, this spring. He sees sport as a way to woo students into after-school activities like English and computer classes, which are otherwise reserved for the elite.

Yup this is a story about a guy promoting skateboarding in Kabul. The story mentions how these kids love skateboarding despite suicide bombings and pressure from hard line Taliban-types that want to keep boys and girls activities separate.

This stuff seemed curiously absent when the Bushies were in charge of Afghanistan. Now that Obama is boss the human interest stuff starts to bubble out.

I think that is one of the best things that will come out of the Obama Presidency. The press is a valuable tool to let Americans know that good things happen in these war torn countries. It isn't just a drumbeat of suicide bombings, Taliban death squads, and civilian deaths.

Geithner in at Treasury: At Last!

It seems his idiotic tax problems hasn't derailed his chance to fix our economy.

In swift order reflecting the urgency, Obama was expected to attend Geithner's swearing in Monday evening at the Treasury Department. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Geithner has made amends — he has paid the taxes and penalties — and possesses the talent the nation needs to steer the nation out of the crisis.

If the GOP blocked this guys nomination I would leave the party permanently. I think Geithner might be one of the few people in this country that has faced these crises before and has come up with solutions to it.

If his nomination was killed due to not paying taxes that he has actually paid with interest and penalties then forget about the GOP. The GOP was rushing too fast toward being labeled as this generations' Herbert Hoovers and I'm glad that cooler heads prevailed in the Senate.

Netflix: It sure seems Recession-proof to me

It seems that people staying home and nesting to save money during the recession is really paying off judging from these quarterly numbers. I mean people out of work or cutting costs are going to nest as much as possible.

Netflix believes the weakening economy is still working in its favor. Management predicted it will attract 700,000 to 900,000 more subscribers during the current quarter, yielding earnings ranging from 25 cents to 33 cents per share on revenue of $387 million to $393 million.

I think some of this growth is from Xbox360 users using Netflix's streaming video option to "Watch it Now." I haven't used this feature much since I have the 3 DVD plan right now and it pretty much gives me all the DVDs I have time to watch at any given time. I do see myself using this more if I wasn't using my Xbox360 to play games.

Also I think Netflix is finally becoming the movie service of choice with many Americans. Blockbuster has always forced you to waste gas, park, and then stand in a line to rent movies. I know they have a Netflix-like mail service but it just isn't as popular for whatever reason. Blockbuster now offers a streaming service but it seems it is pay-per-view and not all you can watch like Netflix is.

So this recession might be the right time to cement Netflix as the leader in both mail-order DVD rentals and streaming rentals as well. The more nesting and saving that people do the more likely they will be saying "I'll just Netflix that movie instead of seeing it at the theatre or getting it from Blockbuster." I have been saying this for years but maybe a critical mass of Americans will be saying it as well.

Obama Keeps Promise of Direct Diplomacy with Iran

It seems that going after a nuclear bomb gets the Obama administration to meet you face to face.

Rice said the U.S. remains "deeply concerned about the threat that Iran's nuclear program poses to the region, indeed to the United States and the entire international community."

"We look forward to engaging in vigorous diplomacy that includes direct diplomacy with Iran, as well as continued collaboration and partnership" with the other four permanent members of the Security Council — Britain, China, France and Russia — plus Germany, Rice said.

I hope Hillary Clinton is a better Secretary of State then Albright was. I mean the North Koreans strait up fooled her and they ended up with the bomb. We can't afford such a thing with Iran because Israel will not be deterred. If Iran gets the bomb mark my words there will be a wider war in the Middle East.

Blackberry Storm Generates Complaints

Well it seems that the IPhone killer may just become a dismal failure if they don't do something fast. It seems it was rushed to market and that may be the trouble. I hated the thing and was ready to throw it against the wall but the IPhone was smooth and easy to use at least at the Apple store. Whatever the case I think these so-called IPhone killers aren't killing much of anything.

Verizon and RIM rushed the device to market, perhaps before it was really ready, according to the Journal article. The newspaper notes that Jim Balsillie, RIM's co-CEO said the companies reached the Black Friday deadline "by the skin of their teeth," after they had missed a planned October debut.

Friday, January 23, 2009

The 5 Greatest Depression Stocks

There are some very interesting names on this list. So we have Submarines, Radios, Bombers, Themostats, and Paper packaging/Cardboard,. So essentially we could see them as 4 tech companies and a company that makes something everyone needs.

The defence companies made technologically advanced products like subs and bombers that had incredibly expensive purchase prices. Then government spending in the form of the defence department paid those prices in order to attain that technology. We then have a demand catalyst like WW2 and the Cold War that served to push them out the door in massive numbers.

It is hard to see a situation like this developing again so they might be perfect storm companies. They appreciated due to them making a very expensive good sought after by the government during a once in a lifetime period. It is hard to see something like them today.

However Zenith could have been the Apple of the 30s-50s since they made a device that everyone wanted. While Honeywell Regulator used technology to transform a mundane thing like keeping people warm into an accepted convention like central heating. Perhaps you could equate it to a company like First Solar or Sunpower that takes a mundane thing like sunlight and turns it into energy.

International Paper & Power made something that people didn't demand as badly as a radio but it was still something that people couldn't live without like paper and cardboard. This would have to be a left field company that made something everyone will need in 20 years but actually end up taking for granted. Perhaps RFID technology or maybe nanotechnology could fit the bill. If you did get a handle on this company perhaps you too might see your $1000 investment turn into $21 million in just 22 years.

1. Electric Boat: Unsinkable Submarine Maker
Cumulative Total Return 1932 to 1954: 55,000% (Rank in Top 50: 1)


Where is it now? A unit of General Dynamics Churning out hundreds of PT boats and submarines during WWII (as well as building the U.S.S. Nautilus, the world's first nuclear sub, during the Cold War) more than kept this stock afloat.

2. International Paper & Power: Paper, Not Plastic
Cumulative Total Return 1932 to 1954: 30,503% (Rank in Top 50: 4)


Where is it now? International Paper Long before plastic packaging (or the digital age, for that matter), paper was king when it came to correspondence and containers. Indeed, four of the 50 best stocks from 1932 to 1954 were in companies that made paper, paper bags and corrugated cardboard.

3. Zenith Radio: Tuned In
Cumulative Total Return 1932 to 1954: 24,146% (Rank in Top 50: 7)


Where is it now? Part of LG ElectronicsOnce upon a time radios were so big they weren't personal consumer electronic devices; they were furniture. Back then American, not Asian, manufacturers dominated the market for civilian and military use.

4. Douglas Aircraft: Bombs Away
Cumulative Total Return 1932 to 1954: 23,586% (Rank in Top 50: 8)


Where is it now? Bloodline leads to Boeing It's little wonder a military contractor that helped make the B-17 bomber (as well as iconic civilian planes such as the DC-3 and DC-9), would fare well during WWII and the Cold War. North American Aviation (P-51 fighter, B-25 bomber) also made the list.

5. Minneapolis Honeywell Regulator: Thermostats Were Hot
Cumulative Total Return 1932 to 1954: 21,608% (Rank in Top 50: 9)


Where is it now? Honeywell International Central heating is taken for granted these days, but only thanks to pioneering advances like the company's original Butz Thermo-Electric Regulator "damper flapper," which helped keep offices and factories at just the right temperature.

Blagojevich Compares His Corruption Trial to Pearl Harbor

There is nothing like comparing the backlash of him trying to sell Obama's Senate seat to the highest bidder to the death of 2117 American Servicemen from hostile enemy fire.

"Dec. 9 to my family, to us, to me, is what Pearl Harbor Day was to the United States," Gov. Rod Blagojevich told The Associated Press in an interview Thursday. "It was a complete surprise, completely unexpected. And just like the United States prevailed in that, we'll prevail in this."

The US "prevailed in that" because 416,800 people were killed trying to fight against the Nazis and the Japanese. Gov. Blagojevich just got caught with his hand in the cookie jar trying to solicit money from children's hospitals and sell Senate seats so he and his wife can retire in luxury. This guy is just too funny for words.

GOP Tax Cut Plan Better for Middle Class

It seems the Dems are again going to stick it to the middle class when it comes to tax cuts.

The tax cuts that won committee approval included a $500 credit for workers making up to $75,000 per year. Couples with incomes up to $150,000 a year would receive a $1,000 credit. Individuals with incomes up to $100,000 and couples earning up to $200,000 would qualify for lesser tax breaks.

The Republican alternative envisioned a different approach.

It called for reducing the current 10 percent bracket to 5 percent, affecting a taxpayer's first $8,350 in income, and lowering the existing 15 percent bracket to 10 percent, covering income from $8,351 to $33,950.

So instead of getting a measly $500 tax cut the GOP plan would give a middle class person making $30,000 a year a $1650 tax cut right off the bat. That is $137 a month in savings which could mean a whole week worth of groceries extra per month. The Dem plan gives you just $41.66 a month which is not enough to take a family to the movies.

The Dem plan is only better for people making less then $8350 a year because it gives them an extra an $83 worth of tax breaks per year. That comes out to a measly $6.91 a month which is less then an Arby's value meal.

What the GOP plan needs to do is that if you are making $8350 a year you should be put into a 0% tax bracket because how much money could the government be making from people making such low wages?

So the GOP can say that poor people would get a full $869 per year more under their plan. Then the Dems would not be able to parrot "tax cuts for the wealthy" when the poor would be get back $835 a year under their plan.

Geithner to Red China: Stop Manipulating Currency!

Or else we won't do anything because it will damage our economy. In other words America is just like a person issuing the empty threat of "I've got my eye on you" and then closing one eye and then pointing to the other. This is what he said.

"President Obama — backed by the conclusions of a broad range of economists — believes that China is manipulating its currency," Geithner wrote in answer to questions submitted to him by members of the Senate Finance Committee.

"President Obama has pledged as president to use aggressively all the diplomatic avenues open to him to seek change in China's currency," Geithner said.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Obama Gets to Hold onto His Blackberry! You are Kidding!

It seems Obama wants to potentially jeopardize national security by holding onto his Blackberry.

Obama plans to use his BlackBerry to communicate with "senior staff and a small group of personal friends. It's a pretty small group of people," Gibbs said in the first White House press briefing held by the new administration. He declined to say who would be allowed to email the president.

Although emails sent by Obama for official government business would be part of the official White House record, Gibbs pointed out that U.S. law allows limited exemptions for strictly personal communications.

What the hell? This thing better have the mother-of-all-security measures on it or it just opened a massive hole in the security net surrounding the President. Forget about the fact that his emails could be used against him in court but a man-in-the-middle attack against this thing could allow access to the email of the most powerful man in the world.

I would bet you that a details-oriented guy like Obama will probably keep just about any email he receives so one hacked Blackberry could lead to a treasure trove of national security information. He now carries a device that every Intelligence organization in the world would love to get a peek at just to see the top secret stuff it contains.

I mean Obama isn't some CEO but the head of the most powerful nation in the world. A guy follows him around with the nuclear football that can wipe out humanity for Pete's sake. I hope his network security people are up to the challenge because a hacked (or lost!) Blackberry could be this nations worst nightmare.

Obama Staff Does NOT Understand the Responsibilities of Working in the White House

Or that seems evident from this Washington Post article.

Two years after launching the most technologically savvy presidential campaign in history, Obama officials ran smack into the constraints of the federal bureaucracy yesterday, encountering a jumble of disconnected phone lines, old computer software, and security regulations forbidding outside e-mail accounts.

What does that mean in 21st-century terms? No Facebook to communicate with supporters. No outside e-mail log-ins. No instant messaging. Hard adjustments for a staff that helped sweep Obama to power through, among other things, relentless online social networking.

I think these staffers need to understand that they are now in charge of the most powerful nation on the planet. We have the capability of wiping out all intelligent life on Earth with the single push of a button. These staffers shouldn't have time to be Instant Messaging their friends when they are facing 2 wars and the greatest financial calamity since the great depression.

They should have known from the start they they can't have access to outside e-mail. That is a security breach of the first order. As Sarah Palin knows an outside email account could easily get hacked by a 17 year old boy let alone a trained Chinese or Russian Cyber-Spy. This part is especially funny:

One member of the White House new-media team came to work on Tuesday, right after the swearing-in ceremony, only to discover that it was impossible to know which programs could be updated, or even which computers could be used for which purposes. The team members, accustomed to working on Macintoshes, found computers outfitted with six-year-old versions of Microsoft software. Laptops were scarce, assigned to only a few people in the West Wing. The team was left struggling to put closed captions on online videos

Oh my God! They have Office 2003 on these machines and not ILife or ITunes or whatever passes for productivity software in Macland. I'm sure this guy resigned on the spot after learning that he has to touch a hated Micro$oft product and sully his hands with dark age software like Office 2003.

Plus someone needs to tell this fool that laptops are scarce because they have the potential to leave the White House with a document on them labeled "nuclear_secrets.xls" or "secret-intelligence-briefing.doc" on them. I'm pretty sure that the "few people in the West Wing" that have laptops also have the very top level clearances and know the potential damage that a lost laptop could cause.

Here's some words of advice for the Obama's "sleek, new iPhone kind of future" team. The time for sending out Chat requests to your friends or updating your Facebook status are over. You can no longer search for a new apartment on Craigslist because it might just be listed by Chinese spies who have filled the place with listening devices and secret cameras.

You are now in a job that one intercepted Tweet to the wrong person or one laptop that walks off in the hands of a Iranian spy could spell the deaths of thousands of even millions of people. Your hacked Yahoo mail account has the potential to hurt national security or even get Americans killed.

I think the sooner that these Obama IPhone Officials 2.0 understands that they are now in charge of the well-being of the entirety of the United States of America the better they will be equipped to keep us safe. Until then their Facebook Status should be set to "Busy. Doing America's work. Check back in 4 years."