5 Stocks that Might Benefit from the ALS Ice Bucket Challenge

Well it seems that ALS research is getting a big bump from people dumping ice water on their heads and giving money to fight the disease.

Besides the millions of viral videos now circulating the web, there is an entire force of big pharmaceutical companies and non-profit clinics and universities hunting for a cure. The record influx of funds supporting Lou Gehrig’s disease may help them hone in on one.

In August, the ALS Association began putting those donations to work, awarding scientists with 21 new research grants valued at $3.5 million, it said in a report.

The stocks are:

Biogen IDEC (BIIB)Their drug dexpramipexole failed in a late stage trial but they are going back to drawing board to see what they can salvage.

Avanir Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AVNR) Their drug Nuedexta is supposed to treat pseudobulbar affect which is uncontrollabe laughing and crying. It might be used to help with ALS because some of them have this affliction as well.

Isis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ISIS) They have a very early stage drug called ISIS-SOD1-Rx that is being studied right now to help with ALS. I'm long this stock.

Sanofi (SNY) They developed the only therapy for ALS which is a drug called Rilutek. It extends the life of an ALS patient but doesn't cure it.

Bristol-Meyers Squibb Co. (BMY) Their immune modulation therapies might be useful in treating ALS. This is from the ALS Forum:

BMS currently is developing a therapy aimed at microtubule stabilization. In addition, BMS has a large program aimed at immune modulation. Both microtubule stabilization and immune modulation could be potential opportunities for ALS therapeutics. [Updated: August 9, 2013]

BMS currently is developing a therapy aimed at microtubule stabilization. In addition, BMS has a large program aimed at immune modulation. Both microtubule stabilization and immune modulation could be potential opportunities for ALS therapeutics. [Updated: August 9, 2013] - See more at: http://www.researchals.org/page/4805/?filter_stage=&filter_location=&filter_class=Small+Molecule#sthash.G8GGvF9a.dpuf

They Found the Missing Global Warming Heat: It's in the Atlantic Ocean

I was wondering where it went.

In 1999, the feverish rise in Earth's surface temperatures suddenly slowed, even as greenhouse gas emissions escalated. This unexpected slowdown has been called a global warming hiatus or global warming pause. Most climate scientists don't think this hiatus means global warming went kaput, but the reason (or reasons) for the slowdown has scientists flummoxed. Researchers have offered more than two dozen ideas to explain the missing heat.

Now, a study published today (Aug. 21) in the journal Science suggests a natural climate cycle in the North Atlantic Ocean gobbled Earth's extra heat. While the study is unlikely to settle the scientific debate, it does support the idea that Earth's global warming continues in the ocean, even when air temperatures stay flat.

Of course this cycle won't last forever and will stop in 2030 for some reason or another. They say it is a 30 year cycle though so in 2060 it should start back up again. So maybe all the climate doom-and-gloom models need to be adjusted for ocean heat trapping.

This is exactly why people bristle at Climate Change Science. Nothing is sure and it is constantly moving and changing like any other kind of science. The so-called "settled science" argument that will cause the UN to make sure the Chinese and Indians keep their people in poverty is such bunk.

Student Suspended for Saying "Bless You" to Someone Who Sneezed

This is just outrageous any way you look at it.

“She said that we’re not going to have godly speaking in her class," Turner said, "and that’s when I said we have a constitutional right. ... It’s all right to defend God and it’s our constitutional right, because we have a freedom of religion and freedom of speech."

Turner was sent to the administrator's office, where she finished the class period with an "in-school suspension," WMC said.

The 1st Amendment says that the Congress can make no law against the free exercise of religion. So saying bless you to someone that sneezed is free exercise of religion. It must take a lot of faith to be an atheist.

Millennials Insanely Risk Averse Study Finds

I guess the Great Recession can do that to a group of people just starting their fiscal lives.

Unfortunately, millennials have a basic misunderstanding of risk. BlackRock's "Global Investor Pulse" survey found that almost half of its 4,000 participants were opposed to taking any risk with their money, keeping it in cash or bonds. The participants included investors of all ages, "with those born in the late 1970s and after leading the way." 

The problem is all-cash will get eroded away by inflation. Just some low-fee index funds or even some dividend rich income funds are better than cash. I blame this on lack of financial literacy for millennials.

The Checked-Out President: Tells Harry Reid to "Work it Out:

I guess Harry Reid knows that Obama is so-over this President thing.

With Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, sitting a few feet away, Mr. Reid complained that Senate Republicans were spitefully blocking the confirmation of dozens of Mr. Obama’s nominees to serve as ambassadors. He expected that the president would back him up and urge Mr. McConnell to relent.

Mr. Obama quickly dismissed the matter.

“You and Mitch work it out,” Mr. Obama said coolly, cutting off any discussion.

Mr. Reid seethed quietly for the rest of the meeting, according to four separate accounts provided by people who spoke with him about it. After his return to the Capitol that afternoon, Mr. Reid told other senators and his staff members that he was astonished by how disengaged the president seemed. After all, these were Mr. Obama’s own ambassadors who were being blocked by Mr. McConnell, and Secretary of State John Kerry had been arguing for months that getting them installed was an urgent necessity for the administration.

Yeah, these are Obama's own nominees that are supposed to be urgently needed. Instead he is like "Dingy Harry work it out." Politics are sooo beneath him. Maybe if Harry Reid was a noted artist, Jay-Z, or a Nobel prize winning economist Obama would have gave him the time of day. Instead he is merely a grubby Majority Leader of the Senate. I think Obama needs to resign and become Democratic Party Chairman and let Biden finish off his term.

A Hillary Speech Does Not Come Cheap; She is a Political Rock Star baby!

Talk about a money making opportunity!

The paper reported Saturday on specifics of the contract for Clinton's speech at a University of Nevada, Las Vegas Foundation fundraiser in October. Clinton will receive $225,000 for speaking at the dinner. In exchange, she will attend for 90 minutes and pose for a maximum of 50 photographs with no more than 100 people. That's a discount: Her regular fee is $300,000, Myers reported.

I guess she can barely afford "houses" with that kind of money. Oh and she is a rock star alright with some rock star demands as well:

Co-host Ron Claiborne read off some of Clinton's specifications for her events -- which include travel on a private jet, a presidential suite to stay in, and the presence of a stenographer -- prompting Harris to ask, "Did she specify which color M&M's she would like?"

Two Important Numbers to Investors

This is an interesting way of looking at the American economy and the Stock Market.

American corporations earned $4.62 billion of net income on Monday. Financial advisors, analysts, and brokers, collected $630 million in fees. No media outlet reported these figures, despite being the two most important numbers necessary to understanding investing.

Also here is why economic numbers are viewed so differently:

A report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the economy added 209,000 jobs last month. An economist from a right-leaning think tank called the report disappointing. Another at a left-leaning organization called it encouraging. Neither has a reputable track record. Both yelled. The jobs report has a margin of error of plus or minus 100,000, and will be revised seven times in the coming years. No one whose outlook was swayed by the report said they care about these details.

I swear economist is the only job where you can be wrong 90% of the time and still get paid by right/left leaning think-tanks. At least a weatherman is correct some of the time. Just not when you want to go to the beach.

Is Hillary Blowing Her Presidential Chances Again? She still has 2 years to go!

Hillary just can't win.

There's a nightmare scenario for Clinton supporters lurking under the surface of these critiques of her campaign skills: the idea that 2016 would be a repeat of 2008. Right now, as a powerful front-runner, Clinton is in a similar position to the one she enjoyed heading into that race. Her slew of stumbles have raised the possibility she could end the race in the same position as 2008 — bested by an opponent who was more electrifying and better able to connect with the public on the campaign trail.

It seems that she is in the same boat as she was when Obama knocked her off in the last election. Maybe Elizabeth Warren or even Joe Biden might want to start up the political machine. Hillary looks vulnerable again.

Wait, Matt Lauer is Not the Dad? Could Have Fooled Me

I heard that Savannah Guthrie just had a kid. However, this photo makes me think that Matt Lauer is the dad and not some other guy.

In fact this comment about the real father is supposed to be funny but is immasculating at the same time.

How is the TV journalist's husband, Mike Feldman, adjusting to life as a first-time father? "You know how fussy he gets!" Savannah said with a laugh. "I've gotta put him down for his nap or he's so cranky."

Haha, the father of your child is like a child himself. Funny stuff. Maybe we need Montel Williams to sort all this out.

Apple's China Opportunity: Massive is an Understatement

It seems that there is huge opportunity to bring iPhones to the Chinese.

The biggest opportunity for Apple in China is likely to come from its new partnership to sell iPhones at the world's largest carrier, China Mobile. The carrier just recently started rolling out its 4G LTE in the country, and the early results of the customer acquisition trajectory is startling.

So far there is 8 million 4G LTE customers in China. However, there are 779 million non 4G LTE customers for them to go after. Even if they get a fraction of that number it will seriously move the needle.

Robin Williams Daughter Chased off of Social Media

Now this is a sad commentary on how people are treated by Anon-assholes online.

While the 25-year-old actress's social media accounts were flooded with mostly well wishes, a few anonymous users criticized the fact she didn't post enough pictures of her father; several sent graphic photoshopped images along with crude and hateful remarks.

"I will be leaving this account for a [sic] but while I heal and decide if I'll be deleting it or not. In this difficult time, please try to be respectful of the accounts of myself, my family and my friends," she shared on Instagram alongside a photo of a butterfly. "Mining our accounts for photos of dad, or judging me on the number of them is cruel and unnecessary. There are a couple throughout, but the real private moments I shared with him were precious, quiet, and believe it or not, not full of photos or 'selfies'.

So they attacked her for not having enough pictures of her dad on social media? I'm glad I deleted my Facebook because people out in social media land are nuts.

6-Sigma Event In Junk Bonds?

It seems that people are pulling their money out of junk bonds to the tune of $7.1 billion.

"HY flowmageddon," said Goldman Sachs' Charles Himmelberg in a research note we saw via @lebullmarche. "This is the largest HY outflow on record – a 6-sigma event when flows are scaled by mutual fund assets under management!"

Sigma is another way of saying standard deviation. And the greater the number of standard deviations, the more unlikely the event.

A 6-sigma event is extremely rare. If you want to put a number to it, think 1 in 500 million. According to Business Insider quant reporter Andy Kiersz, it's like flipping a coin 29 times in a row and getting heads each time. It's like rolling a die 11 times in a row and getting 6 each time.

Some people are saying that it is a good entry point because the companies that are issuing the debt are still in pretty good shape. The economy is growing fairly well so you don't have to worry about the risk of a downturn.

200 Day Moving Average Test Might Be a Good Entry Point

Hopefully, the last correction might have opened up another buying opportunity.

Craig Johnson, senior technical analyst at Piper Jaffray, is also bullish on the Dow. Tests of the index’s 200-day moving average have “proven to be great buying opportunities” over the past few years, he said. That’s because an uptrend he sees as beginning in 2011 is still intact.

“This to me looks and feels like just a normal pullback, correction right back to the 200-day, and a great buying opportunity,” Johnson said. “At this pullback here, we’re starting to look a little bit oversold.”

Teen Choice Awards Rigged?

I guess the rules are such that they can pretty much pick anyone and ignore the "so-called" fan vote.

Winners for the Teen Choice Awards are determined using the votes cast on Teenchoiceawards.com. Votes are tabulated electronically and winners are determined based on the nominees in each category with the highest number of eligible votes.  Teenasaurus Rox reserves the right to choose the winner from the top four vote getters. The Olay Fresh Effects Breakout Star Award and Ultimate Choice Award were both chosen by Teenasaurus Rox.

 I wonder what would have been wrong with just tabulating the winners like a week before and then giving them to Accounting firm. Then they invite the people that won and if they cannot make it have their industry friend (or their biggest fan) accept the award in their behalf. Instead they say that it is fan votes that pick the winner when it is actually done by the management.

Montana Might have Lost Its Senate Candidate?

I guess this is why you don't copy your Masters Thesis in college.

But then in July, The New York Times reported that Walsh, while a master's candidate at the United States Army War College "appropriated at least a quarter of his thesis on American Middle East policy from other authors’ works, with no attribution." 

Walsh's campaign has been in a spiral ever since. His camp initially attributed the plagiarism to his struggle with PTSD, but he has thus far been unable to contain the damage. 

On Tuesday, two Montana newspapers called on Walsh to quit the race. 

He hasn't been heard from since. 

The New York Times took down a Democrat? I'm sure the liberal establishment are going crazy over that fact.

Tea Party Group Stealing With Both Hands: Now the Tea Party is Like Everyone Else in Washington

It all started so well. Now it has become a mess.

This week, ProPublica released a report on the financial (and moral) corruption of a Tea Party group operating under the name Move America Forward, which was founded by one Sal Russo. Russo also helped start the Our Country Deserves Better PAC, aka the Tea Party Express. Move America Forward has run fake drives to give care packages to troops, stolen images of other charitable campaigns and passed them off as its own, and trumpeted a nonexistent partnership with Walter Reed Hospital — all while funneling very real millions to itself. The group is an industry leader at taking your Tea Party sentiments (if you have them) and turning them into profits.

They are turning your anger of government bloat and spending into fat stacks of cash that they are putting into their pockets. I hope they bury this Sal Russo character underneath the jail.

People Suck at Figuring Out Risk: They Fear the Rare and Ignore the Common

These numbers kind of blew me away.

How many miles would you have to drive by car until the risk of dying is the same as in a nonstop flight? I have asked this to dozens of expert audiences. The answers are all over the place: one thousand miles, ten thousand miles, driving three times around the world. However, the best estimate is twelve miles. Yes, only twelve. If your car makes it safely to the airport, the most dangerous part of your trip is likely already behind you.

Yeah 12 miles. This article also points out that more people die in car crashes in 5 hours than have died all this year in airplane crashes. This part is stunning as well:

Ebola has also been in the news this week, scaring people around the world. Ebola has killed 1,590 people since it was identified in the 1970s, according to the World Health Organization. Measles -- which faces a vaccination backlash -- kills about as many people every 96 hours.

Yet there is all sorts of fear factor when it comes to the Ebola outbreak. There is no talk of the measles outbreak and how deaths will go up considerably if people stop vaccinating their children. But there is no cure for ebola and there is a cure for measles so of course people are scared to death of it.

A case in point can be drawn from Hawaii and 2 hurricanes bearing down on us. I heard on the news there is like a 5% chance of there being winds over 50 miles per hour. So what do people do? They rush to Costco and stock up on tons of bottled water and noodles. At Sam's Club there were lines that went the length of the store to pay for something that will probably not be needed. Also I wonder if these people bought piles of bottled water when we had a Tsunami about a year ago? I mean water doesn't go bad. I guess this is where you get the term sheeple from.

There might be Sapphire on the iPhone 6 after all

This debate goes back and forth but an analyst did some math and inventory buildup might be evidence that the iPhone 6 will have a Sapphire display.

As the chart shows, GT has been building up a significant backlog of deferred revenue in recent quarters. While a portion of that is from its other products, the company reports that amount and it represents about $65 million in equipment as of the end of last quarter. When that’s subtracted out of the total, it leaves $154 million that Margolis says can pretty much only be sapphire. He believes Apple is paying $8-10 per screen for the material from GT (the finished goods price will be higher after it’s processed by Apple’s contract manufacturers) so that alone represents 15-19 million screens worth of sapphire.

“What this means is GT is already sitting on enough sapphire to satisfy Apple’s needs for the iPhone 6 launch in September,” Margolis said. “This deal was in the making for 2 years. They’ve been preparing this for quite some time.”

15-19 million screens seems to be a decent amount for the first run of iPhone 6s. They will probably fly off the shelves and GT Advanced will have to seriously churn out the Sapphire going forward. This article says that number needs to be 10 million screens a month in order to keep ahead of demand.

Microsoft Lost $1.73 Billion on the Surface

Ballmer's legacy of failure continues.

Keizer did his own back-of-the-envelope calculation to estimate that Microsoft has lost $1.73 billion since the Surface’s debut in 2012. The total loss for FY2014 was $680 million, and it was $1.049 million for the year before, according to Keizer.

His calculations also revealed that in the June 2014 quarter alone, the Surface had lost $363 million, the largest quarterly loss for the Surface since Microsoft started releasing quarterly revenue figures.

He said some of the losses was due to massive write-offs from the Surface Mini, which never hit the market despite being ready for production, out of fear it would not sell well. 

I think the newest version of the Surface is pretty decent for the most part. However, I would still rather own a Nexus or an iPad.

Looks like iPhone 6 Release Date is Sept 8th

Lots of rumors and innuendo but this might be the date we see the new iPhone6.

September 9 is the date pegged by re/code today and it should be taken seriously. Re/code was founded by Wall Street Journal industry pillars Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher and after years of hosting talks with the biggest names in tech (they once got Bill Gates and Steve Jobs on the sofa together) the duo are among the best connected journalists in the industry.

I wonder if anyone will be lining up for that date or not?