Thursday, June 12, 2008

Terms of the Yahoo/Google Deal Released

It seems like it is a 10 year non-exclusive tie up. I hope that $800 million revenue bump figure isn't just wishful thinking. The more I look at it the more it looks like they did this Google deal just so they could avoid being acquired by Microsoft.

The plan: Yahoo will be able to run Google ads on its U.S. and Canadian search results -- where and when it wants to -- and will continue to sell its own ads via Panama. Yahoo estimates the deal could generate $800 million in annual revenue and $250-450 million in incremental operating cash flow -- but little to no cost savings.

This Merrill guy hit what I am thinking right on the head:

Merrill: GOOG has market share leadership. Will advertisers still want to buy YHOO when they can buy GOOG and potentially get on YHOO? Any interest in your part on serving content ads on GOOG pages?

Sue: YHOO monetizes competitively with query ads, but not in the tail, because of GOOG's scale. Flexibility of deal lets us get the best of both worlds. Can optimize every single day. Will keep marketplace alive and vibrant. Components of this deal where we'll be working on other elements of value, and one might be helping Google with display ads.

What keeps a Yahoo advertiser from just switching to Google and having their ads show up in Yahoo's search queries without having to pay for both Yahoo and Google? A company could game the system by buying long-tail type words from Google and benefit from having them show up on both Google and Yahoo. They would essentially pay for Google and get Yahoo for free. It seems to me that this optimization strategy is now the linchpin of Yahoo's entire search business model going forward.

One issue that could come up is that they seem to be losing their top talent little by little. This is a really bad deal because the people with the right talent mix, who may be key to this optimization thing being a success, may take off just when Yahoo needs them the most. This Google deal may save the company from being bought out but I would be willing to bet that they won't see the $33 stock price that Microsoft was willing to pay them for years to come.

But Wait There's More: Google and Yahoo may Reach Deal

Ah so it looks like Microsoft got the shaft yet again. It seems Google is going to strike up an ad deal with Yahoo after all.

Yahoo and Google will make a joint announcement at 1:30 California time this afternoon, we’ve heard from a reliable source close to one of the companies. What is the announcement? The very likely answer is, a search partnership between the two companies that outsources all or part of Yahoo search marketing, and possibly search itself, to Google.

Microsoft Walks Away from Yahoo Deal

Look for Yahoo stock to fall off a cliff. They better iron out that Google Ad deal or we might see Yahoo back in the low teens again. If I was Carl Ichan I would be spitting mad about now.

Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq:YHOO - News), a leading global Internet company, today announced that discussions with Microsoft regarding a potential transaction -- whether for an acquisition of all of Yahoo! or a partial acquisition -- have concluded. The conclusion of discussions follows numerous meetings and conversations with Microsoft regarding a number of transaction alternatives, including a meeting between Yahoo! and Microsoft on June 8th in which Chairman Roy Bostock and other independent Board members from Yahoo! participated. At that meeting, Microsoft representatives stated unequivocally that Microsoft is not interested in pursuing an acquisition of all of Yahoo!, even at the price range it had previously suggested.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Pluto Gets Some Cache Back

It seems they are naming dwarf planets after Pluto by calling them "plutoids."

"Plutoids are celestial bodies in orbit around the sun at a distance greater than that of Neptune that have sufficient mass for their self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that they assume a hydrostatic equilibrium (near-spherical) shape, and that have not cleared the neighborhood around their orbit."

You figure there would be quite a few plutoids out there in the The Kuiper belt and the Oort Cloud. I think Oort Cloud would be a great name for a cat as well. Here, oort come have dinner!

Monday, June 09, 2008

Now the Saudis are Surprised by Oil Rise

It seems even the Saudi's were thrown off by that record 2 day oil rally.

The kingdom will work to ensure there will be no "unwarranted and unnatural oil price hikes that could affect international economies, especially those of developing countries," said Madani.

"There is no justification for the current rise in prices," he said.

They are deathly afraid that high oil prices will throw the world economy into a recession and people stop buying their product. The Saudis can make a ton of money in the near term but the tap stops once people stop driving to save the gas that they can barely afford.

Obama is Backing the Idiodic Windfall Tax

The more I hear from Obama the more it sounds like he just doesn't understand economic matters at all.

"I'll make oil companies like Exxon pay a tax on their windfall profits, and we'll use the money to help families pay for their skyrocketing energy costs and other bills," the Illinois senator said.

Will he make oil companies like Shell Oil, TotalFinaElf, BP pay this tax as well? I mean they are reaping windfall profits as well but they aren't based in the US. Also what prevents the oil companies from simply passing on the tax to the consumers thus making $4.00 gas into $5.00 gas? Of course like his all-troops out in 16 months Iraq policy he doesn't have any sort of plan for the "what-ifs."

Reading his plan further makes things even worse.

The plan would target profit from the biggest oil companies by taxing each barrel of oil costing more than $80, according to a fact sheet on the proposal. The tax would help pay for a $1,000 tax cut for working families, an expansion of the earned- income tax credit and assistance for people who can't afford their energy bills.

So Obama wants oil companies taxed based on oil prices? He does know that the oil companies barely affect prices since they only pull about 17% of the oil out of the ground? This tax makes no sense at all. I think Obama needs to realize that oil prices are globally set and these are domestic companies he is robbing. OPEC, Russia and China have way more clout in setting prices then Exxon will ever have.

Finally what keeps the oil companies from simply pumping less domestic oil or shuttering refineries when oil goes to $81? That seems to be what happened when Carter tried this same scheme in 1980.

We've been down this road before. Under a windfall tax signed into law by Jimmy Carter, domestic oil production plummeted by an estimated 795 million barrels, while imports of foreign oil surged. Congress had anticipated windfall tax revenues of $393 billion. The actual take: just $80 billion. Like so much else associated with the Carter era, the windfall-profits tax was a counterproductive flop. Do Democrats really believe a new dose of Carternomics is going to make today's economy stronger?

So Obama's plan will be to penalize US oil companies in order to increase the wealth of foreign exporters? Way to score an own goal Obama. The funny thing is the Dems actually think this will lower gas prices? I think Obama needs to go back and retake Economics 101 since he seems to have flunked it at Columbia.

Friday, June 06, 2008

"Hysterical" Trading in Last Hour in the Oil Pits?

Now this is a very interesting data point on oil's insane rise these past two days:

Crude's late-day launch occurred out of nowhere, with no new data release or news headlines for an impetus. The last hour of trading can only be described as hysterical, with oil traders calling financial reporters, desperately trying to find out what vital information they were missing that the rest of the market had apparently discovered.

It seems that even oil traders were thrown off by the rally. It just feels to me like the price went over a certain point then gapped even higher due to automatic trading programs or something like that. I should think the CBOE or NYMEX should look at the trading to see if there wasn't something strange going on or not.

May Unemployment Rate due to Teens

Again the press has read unemployment numbers incorrectly citing the biggest gain since 1986 even though it was not because of job losses but a quirky calendar and unemployed teens swelling the workforce.

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. economists estimated the unemployment rate may drop back by 0.1 or 0.2 percentage point in June because of the seasonal-adjustment effect. David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International in New York, said the May rate was as much as 0.3 percentage point higher because of the school-year impact.

It's hard for students to find summer work because ``no one is looking for someone to stay until mid-August,'' Jackie Brooks, 19, of Mishawaka, Indiana, said in a phone interview. She recently finished her first year at Indiana University in Bloomington and was looking for work at a bookstore or a café. ``If I tell them I have to leave in mid-August, they say they can't take me.''

Also you might blame high gas prices on why some teens aren't looking for work. I mean they can't afford to drive as much as they could last year so they just aren't looking for work in such large numbers as they did before. Why work for a company that pays you a wage that barely pays for the trip to your workplace? I mean gas costs $4.00 a gallon and minimum wage is only $7.00 so if a teen so they are barely breaking even if they have to drive any distance to their workplace.

Also if this Jackie Brooks is indicative of the attitude of many teens then the people are looking to work in industries that just aren't hiring. I mean both bookstores and cafes probably don't hire workers for 3 months since Borders is laying off workers and many casual dining restaurants are cutting back on staff due to high food costs and slowing disposable incomes.

Morgan Stanley Oil Prediction: Tail Wags Dog

I'm getting fed up with these crazy oil predictions that actually end up causing oil prices to rise.

Prices pushed sharply higher Friday after Morgan Stanley analyst Ole Slorer predicted strong demand in Asia could drive prices to $150 by Independence Day, when millions of Americans are expected to take to the roads. Slorer said shipments from the Middle East are mimicking patterns seen in the third quarter last year, when Morgan Stanley based an oil price spike prediction on falling supplies in the Atlantic.

What demand are they talking about? From what I have read Indian Oil Demand is murky and hard to pin down. This fact if very interesting however:

First, and most unusually, the price of diesel in India is considerably below (25% less) the price of petrol; the world prices diesel at 20 per cent above the price of petrol. Second, the consumer price of petrol in India is more than that in the US (at $4.40 a gallon), and among the highest in the developing world. In China, petrol is priced at only 74 cents a litre, compared to the average Indian price of $1.17 a litre.

So we have growing demand from a country whose per capita income is $774? I mean their income is growing fast but can Indians actually afford to drive that many miles on gas prices at $4.40 a gallon? We can barely afford gas that expensive with our per capita income of $34,000? It is just common sense that Indians are cutting back on their gas use as prices go up.

Also Chinese demand for actual crude oil is only 2.5% higher then last year with most of the demand growth coming from diesel fuel and other oil products. I would bet that most of that diesel growth was because of Olympics prep work and stockpiling so their won't be a shortage come August.

Another thing is I'm pretty sure Americans will not be "hitting the roads" by the millions if gas is $4.50 or $5.00 a gallon. They will probably have vacations close to home if they even travel to their vacations at all. So this millions of phantom Americans hitting the roads is a strait-up myth that has already been disproved by the massive slowdown in driving this past Memorial Day Holiday.

Finally, the Dollar only dropped against the Euro by $0.10 cents this week from $0.645 to $0.635 in total and was actually much weaker at $0.625 in April. There is no way a $.10 move lower in dollar can justify a +11% move in 2 days. I think it is pure bubble speculation and the price is not reflected in the supply/demand fundamentals at all. I think this Ole Slorer is just pulling prices out of a hat and the speculators are following it in lock-step driving things higher.

Ugly Rug Sells for $4.45 million

I think the person that paid for this rug got gypped. The rug is in pretty poor condition if you asked me. Maybe the Newport Restoration Foundation who paid the big bucks for the thing will fix it up and make it look decent. I am all for antiques but I think condition is as important as well as age and provenance. I guess this is more from a comic collectors point of view since you actually pay less for damaged copies.

Thursday, June 05, 2008

Japanese Turn to Hedge Funds

And it seems that the Man Group PLC is reaping the benefit.

Hedge funds are set to benefit as Japanese individuals, who sit on almost $15 trillion of personal savings, shift investments away from equities after the benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 11 percent last year. Japan accounts for about a fifth of Man Group's total $78.5 billion assets, up from some 5 percent in 2003, when Hayashi took over at the local unit.

I didn't know that the Man group actually started in 1783 as a sugar trader. Also it seems about time that the Japanese are getting tired of that .05 percent saving rate and losing money in their own stock market. Plus this Man Group is starting a seven different environment related hedge funds as well. Seems like a decent way to make a few extra bucks if you are a Japanese investor.

The firm in April said it set up Man Environmental Capital Opportunities to invest in environmental issues. China Methane Recovery Fund, its first project, raised 400 million euros ($617 million) to finance extraction of greenhouse gas from coal mines in Shanxi province. The methane can be burned to generate electric power while the project is expected to earn UN emission credits.

Great Cover of Viva La Vida from Coldplay

I really enjoyed this cover of the Coldplay song Viva La Vida from a very cute girl who is possibly Spanish. Youtube lists the user as Svetlailieva which sounds Russian for some reason. In any case this is a great song and I will probably be buying this album just to get an MP3 of this song.

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

McCain to Hillary Lovers: Come on Down!

Wow, McCain is even heaping a little praise on her:

McCain followed suit, complimenting her on Tuesday night even as he ripped into his new Democratic opponent.

"She deserves a lot more appreciation than she sometimes received," McCain said of Clinton.

"As the father of three daughters, I owe her a debt for inspiring millions of women to believe there is no opportunity in this great country beyond their reach."

The strategy could pay off. Some women supporters have said they will back McCain over Obama -- despite the former first lady's entreaties on the campaign trail not to do so.

Too bad he didn't say "she deserves a lot more appreciation then the media actually gave her." He should push the narrative that the media turned on Hillary because they are sexist and gave Obama the kid-gloves treatment because they wanted to see the first black candidate. That should appeal to the women that feel like victims of the system since they went full-tilt after the female candidate while they gave the black male candidate a pass.

I mean the Dems pulled every stunt including counting the residents of two very large states as half-persons just to push her out of the way. They also went after her for crying and not dropping out on their timetable.

McCain needs a fairly young female running mate so badly he should scour the country for one. Too bad Condi Rice doesn't want in.

He should think about the following Republican women governors or Senators: Jo Ann Emerson who is 57 and from the swing state of Missouri (too bad she voted to pull troops out of Iraq but she is pro stem cell,) Sarah Palin Governor of Alaska who is only 42 (too bad her children all have goofy Hollywood-sounding names; Track, Bristol, Willow, Piper and Trig,) or our governor Linda Lingle who is 55 and could outright win the Jewish vote. In any case I would much rather see almost any female or minority VP like Bobby Jindal then some forgettable white dude from a swing state or some freak like Romney.

25 Year Old Towel Found inside Japanese Man

This one statement is case-in-point of the difference between the US and Japan.

Asahi hospital officials visited the man and apologised, he said.

The former patient has no plans to sue the hospital, which is in talks with him over compensation or other measures, the official said.

Japanese media reports said the man, who was not identified, still had his spleen removed.

So the hospital that left the towel in for 25 years apologized to him, the man won't sue, but he will probably get his medical bills paid for or some other small settlement. There wasn't 25 trial lawyers parachuted in from a C130, they didn't hang the doctor from a meat hook, and the Asahi hospital won't have to go bankrupt from the multi-million dollar lawsuit it will be hit with. No unmitigated greed but just a civil apology and some sane financial compensation.

India Raises Gas Prices

I guess Indian Consumers will soon feel the pinch of higher gas prices. I wonder how this info will affect the demand picture going forward.

India's government raised retail prices of gasoline, diesel and cooking gas, Oil Minister Murli Deora told reporters today in New Delhi. Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Sri Lanka and Thailand have also cut subsidies and raised fuel costs, which is likely to curb demand.

Time to Buy Refiners?

Things are certainly looking better for refiners as oil prices come down and their businesses become more profitable.

Refineries operated at 89.7 percent of their capacity last week, up 1.8 percentage points from the week before and the highest since the week ended Jan. 4, the department said. The profit margin, or crack spread, for making three barrels of crude oil into one of heating oil and two of gasoline jumped 46 percent in May.

I was recently looking into Sunoco and found an interesting tidbit as I read their last 10Q. It seems they are expanding cokemaking facilities through their subsidiary SunCoke Energy (that company sounds like a new energy drink from Coca-Cola) to various steel companies including AK Steel and Mittal.

It seems like an interesting side business since a steel mill with a coke plant next door can seriously cut their costs. Also the steam generated from making coke can also be sold to the steel company for their own power needs or put directly onto the power market if the steel company doesn't want it. Also these mills are under pretty long term contracts as well so it should create a solid revenue stream for Sunoco.

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Obama Got the Nomination

The long national nightmare (if you are a Democrat) is now over.

A surge of support from uncommitted delegates gave Obama the 2,118 votes he needed to clinch the nomination and defeat rival Hillary Clinton, a former first lady who entered the race as a heavy favorite.

And now Hillary is angling for the VP spot. If I was Obama I would totally spurn Hillary for a more centrist Democratic woman from a Red State like Claire McCaskill from Missouri. I think Hillary is far too divisive and Obama shouldn't have someone who hates him as VP. I mean he might just get an RFK-like sendoff like Hillary day dreamed about.

Monday, June 02, 2008

DVD Mounted on Phoenix Mars Lander

Now this is pretty interesting. I wonder what sort of reader device "future Martian explorers" will have on their 3000 Terahertz Quantum PCs and whether it could read this thing? They would have to get a computer historian to decipher the start up mechanism of a museum piece computer and actually boot the thing into the ancient dead OS called Vista.

The mini-DVD from the Planetary Society contains a message to future Martian explorers, science fiction stories and art inspired by the Red Planet, and the names of more than a quarter million earthlings.


Ali Larijani Elected Speaker; Ahmadinejoke's Days Numbered

Hmm this turn of events really bodes nicely for people that are opposed to Iranian nuclear ambitions.

Larijani's stunning return to center stage in Iranian politics makes two things clear: President Ahmadinejad's hold on power is slipping badly, and next year's Iranian presidential election race is now wide open. Winning 232 votes after persuading an Ahmadinejad ally, former Speaker Gholamali Haddad-Adel, to step aside, Larijani is poised to make the position a dynamic power center in Iranian politics, and perhaps even a personal launch pad for challenging Ahmadinejad's bid for a second term of office.

I think Iran might be able to pull off nuclear technology but not get the bomb if this guy comes into power. If the Iranians actually dealt with the West instead of repeatedly threatening Israel they could probably cut a nice deal. I could see Russia or China rushing to help them build reactors that can't create weapons grade plutonium.

They may even give them the means of creating the bomb to counter American designs in the area. I could see the Obama administration not keeping their eye on the prize and Iran gets the nukes they are after. Crazy Mullahs with nukes get bombed. Canny Mullahs that work with the naivete of Obama get their nukes and their hegemony over the Middle East as a package deal.

Brits Whipping Taliban Ass

It seems that a corner may be turning in Afghanistan according to Brig Mark Carleton-Smith. His name really sounds like a Victorian-era general in charge of Pashtun Irregulars or something. In any case it seems that drones and "decapitation strikes" is decimated the Taliban.

In the past two years an estimated 7,000 Taliban have been killed, the majority in southern and eastern Afghanistan. But it is the "very effective targeted decapitation operations" that have removed "several echelons of commanders".

This in turn has left the insurgents on the brink of defeat, the head of Task Force Helmand said.

"The Taliban are much weaker," he said from 16 Air Assault Brigade headquarters in Lashkar Gah.

"The tide is clearly ebbing not flowing for them. Their chain of command is disrupted and they are short of weapons and ammunition."