Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Facebook is Going to Kill the Ad Sponsered Web?: Talk About Going from Hype to Despair

Now I think pundits are overcorrecting after hyping Facebook to high heaven.

Facebook is not only on course to go bust, but will take the rest of the ad-supported Web with it.

Given its vast cash reserves and the glacial pace of business reckonings, that will sound hyperbolic. But that doesn't mean it isn't true.

At the heart of the Internet business is one of the great business fallacies of our time: that the Web, with all its targeting abilities, can be a more efficient, and hence more profitable, advertising medium than traditional media. Facebook, with its 900 million users, valuation of around $100 billion, and the bulk of its business in traditional display advertising, is now at the heart of the heart of the fallacy.

I have to agree with this article when it says that the death of Facebook will deal a serious blow to banner ads since it will show Madison Avenue that even if you have 900 million or a billion users you still hardly get any of them to click on your ad. They will figure that shoveling money toward Facebook might be a waste like GM recently has.

However I don't think the ad-supported Web will die because of Facebook's potential demise. Also this argument that the Web is a more efficient and profitable advertising media is not a fallacy. Traditional ads have always been shoveling money at something for a non-measurable return. You put on a 30 second commercial and hopefully people buy your crap. If you put that commercial in front of a million people it is better than only 10,000 people. It isn't rocket science.

So advertisers follow the people. They think that Facebook has 500 million sets of active eyeballs so they have to get their ads in front of those people. It is pretty much like advertising on a billboard. People see it and think I need that product. The Web allows you a more efficient way to go from the "I need that product" to the "I'll buy that product" by clicking through the banner ad. The problem is that not enough people are doing that to make Facebook grow long term and have it trade at that high a multiple.

However, that doesn't kill the ad-sponsored Web by any stretch of the imagination. I mean billboards still provide a pretty decent stream of revenue and there is no way to measure how effective they are at selling the ad buyers crap. So banner ads will become the billboards of the Web and will be priced with a similar model. I mean if you want to get people to notice your product putting a billboard in front of 500 million people isn't the worst thing you can do.

This "banner ads as billboards" effect doesn't mean that suddenly all of the ad dollars will drain out of the Web. I mean where are they going to go instead? All of the traditional media has been tried and most of them have no way of measuring their effectiveness. Companies are still shoveling billions toward prime time TV even though time shifting is making it so that less and less people see those commercials.

I mean most traditional media sources are having problems with diminishing eyeballs as we speak. People watch less prime time TV, read less magazines and newspapers, and most people throw away direct mail without looking at it. So the Web is the last place where there are millions of eyeballs that you can put your crap in front of. The banner ad might not be the most effective way of selling your crap but it sure beats sending out a million flyers and hoping you get some business from them. 

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Facebook Continues to Drop: I'm Just Not Sure How they Grow Revenue in the Future

The stock kept falling today as people finally come to the realization that this stock is not the next Google and might be shrinking rather than growing as people think is supposed to happen.

Facebook released an amendment to its S-1 filing Monday, showing a drop in advertising revenue for the quarter. Total advertising revenue amounted to $872 million in the quarter ending March 31, down from $943 million in Q4 2011, but up from $731 million during the same period a year ago.

That does sound worrying but I figure that is mostly seasonality as people ramp up the ads for Christmas and then take them down when the new year comes along. Now they need to have a big time growth number in Q2 or we might see the stock become a victim of "half-off sale" from its IPO price. 

I'm still not 100% sure how it makes any more money from its 900 million accounts. Only 532 million actually log in daily so that number should be correct amount of "users" of the site. That 900 million figure should just be buried since 400 million of those accounts are simply sitting on a server somewhere waiting to be deleted.

Supposedly these 532 million users are worth $9.51 in ad revenue each. I'm just not sure how realistic that figure is because I have never clicked through to a banner ad on Facebook or any other internet property since like 1998. That model didn't work then either. Maybe there is a bunch of people on Facebook who are assiduously clicking ads for whatever reason but it just doesn't seem plausible. It would be interesting to see the exact number of impressions that each Facebook ad generates and compare them to the click-through on a top ranking on a Google search.

Also the gaming aspect (aka payments and fees which is about 20% of their revenue) is dying a slow death due to smart phones. The only reason I went to Facebook (before I deleted my account due to privacy concerns) was to play games. Now I play the same exact same games on my smartphone for free without needing the Facebook front-end to get to them. You can be sure that this trend will not slow down any time soon and this revenue stream will be dead in 3 years or less.

I have also read that mobile is the big revenue driver for Facebook going forward. I just don't see the people who aren't clicking through to the ads on the desktop version of Facebook would suddenly click through to the ads on a smart phone. This is doubly true when they have a data plan that costs them money for internet usage over a certain limit. People would be even more loathe to click through an ad when it wastes precious bandwidth that they need to play games, upload pics, or check their mail. So I don't see an ad based model bringing in big-time revenue growth on the mobile version of Facebook either.

Maybe Instagram will be their savior because I downloaded the app and it is pretty damn cool. I mostly use it to check to see what pictures celebrities put up since no one I know uses the app at all. If they can somehow get advertisers to pay for placement on Instagram or have people join corporate picture feeds (the Red Bull one would have lots of gals in bikinis for instance) they might have something. The problem is that Instagram has no moat and can be duplicated pretty easily by Google or someone who has a better idea.

Whatever the case the thing that would make Facebook big money just hasn't come out yet and that is bad news for a company valued at 70x earnings (50x now I think.) The idea of paying such a high premium hoping that Zuckerberg can crank out something awesome when proven tech companies like Apple, Amazon, and Google are trading so cheaply just doesn't make any sense to me.

Part of the Monday Swoon in Facebook Shares Attributed to NASDAQs self inflicted wound?

I guess we can see why there was a run on the stock at the open on Monday.

It started with an alert sent out Monday morning by Nasdaq OMX Group, the exchange whose technical glitches caused a delayed opening of Facebook on Friday and left many orders unfilled.

The alert said that any investor who lost money because of the delay could be eligible for compensation. Claims had to be submitted by noon on Monday. 

So what happened was that people sold the stock with both hands and eventually the stock recovered after the noon deadline had passed. Either way I think NASDAQ and Morgan Stanley needs to sit down in from of regulators and figure out exactly what happened and see that it doesn't happen again.

Former Greek Prime Minister Talks About Euro Exit

I think they need to just pull the band-aid off of the wound and leave the Euro already. This he-said-Papa said BS is beginning to look stupid.

Greece's financial stability fund approved an 18 billion euro ($23 billion) injection of capital into the country's four biggest banks on Tuesday and will release the funds on Wednesday, a fund official said. 

At the same time, news reports quoted former Greece Prime Minister Lucas Papademos as saying that preparations for the country's exit from the euro zone are being considered.

I think the IMF needs to get some economists together in a room and hash out exactly what the fallout would be if Greece left the Euro by a certain date. They can look at the potential losses and different exit scenarios so we can get some clarity on this mess.

If You Own a Ferrari in Italy the Tax Man Cometh

Well, it seems that Europeans are finally understanding that increasing their revenue means going after tax cheats. It seems that Italy has a very long history of people not paying their taxes to the government and they seem to be driving Ferraris.

A widely reported tax blitz in January on Cortina D'Ampezzo, the winter playground for the rich and famous, received widespread support from Italians. Tax authorities looked into the owners of 133 Lamborghinis, Ferraris, and other luxury cars and found nearly a third of the owners declared incomes of less than $30,000 per year – a laughable amount, considering not only the cost of their cars but the $8.95/gallon cost of gasoline. 

In other words these guys who reported to be making less than I am are driving around in $100k cars burning $8.95 a gallon gas. Yeah they are hiding their income alright.

Now the DEA is getting in on the Prostitutes

It seems that the Secret Service isn't the only government agency partaking of the worlds oldest profession.

"It's disturbing that we may be uncovering a troubling culture that spans more than one law enforcement agency," the Maine Republican said this evening. "In addition to the Secret Service scandal, we now learn that at least two DEA agents apparently entertained female foreign national masseuses in the Cartagena apartment of one of the agents. The evidence uncovered thus far indicates that this likely was not just a one-time incident." 

Again it isn't the act itself that is troubling to me but the idea that these guys are now prime for blackmail. All it takes is a hidden camera and suddenly a drug cartel has a DEA agent on the payroll. 

Friday, May 18, 2012

Yet Another Case of Individual Investors Taking the Hype of the Facebook IPO

I'm glad some of these people have financial planners to keep themselves from freaking out.

On Monday, 74-year-old Betty Tanguilig told her financial adviser to liquidate a $400,000 account and put all the proceeds into Facebook Inc IPO shares.


Her adviser, Alan Haft, agreed to sell only $46,000 of the $400,000 account, one of several the retiree has. But at about 6:00 a.m. EDT Friday, Haft heard from his brokerage firm, E*Trade Financial Corp, that Tanguilig did not get any IPO shares.


Tanguilig, a retired mother of eight, was furious. She has been on Facebook for many years and regularly logs in. "I had to have it," she said.

So this poor woman wanted to liquidate her entire account and buy shares of Facebook? Now that is a bigger epic fail than its IPO debut.

Facebook Debut an Epic Fail; Underwriters had to Rush to Keep it Above IPO Price

Now this is embarrassing for a "historic IPO" and the greatest of all time and other hyperbole that was used by CNBC to hype Facebook.

But the shares lost steam in the final hour of trading, and fell back to the $38 level—a tepid performance for one of the largest and most closely watched IPOs. More than 30 banks were involved in the offering, which sold at least 421 million shares to investors.

There was supposed to be a rush to keep the stock above the IPO price of $38 which would have been a serious embarrassment for the underwriters and Facebook as well. Also I hope this guy was able to get in at $38 and not $45 because he swallowed that CNBC hype uncooked:

"If it wasn't for Facebook I wouldn't be here," he said as he left the branch to go to his bank and transfer money into his new account. "I missed out on Groupon when it went public, so I'm not going to miss the boat this time."

Mr. Hodges said he plans to invest $10,000 in Facebook shares—including $4,500 of his own money and $5,500 from his mother.


Mr. Hodges expressed confidence in Mark Zuckerberg as Facebook's CEO and said he isn't worried about Mr. Zuckerberg being young. "To me, he's a genius. You know, he created something for the whole world... Everything is social now. The world is a different place with Facebook," he said.

Um, Mr. Hodges has no business investing his or his mom's money because he just isn't very good at it. If he bought Groupon at the IPO price of $20 he would be down $8.42 a share on paper. In other words he would have lost nearly half of his initial investment. Or maybe to put it in a positive light he "missed the boat" on losing $8.42 a share which is a pretty good deal I think. In any case he is not the kind of retail investor that WSJ should be interviewing.

I'm not saying that Facebook will drop too far below $38 since I think the underwriters will prop it up as much as they can to not look like fools to have priced the stock too high. Facebook just isn't worth half of Google's market cap but trades at 45 times earnings while Google trades at only 12 times earnings. Google is growing their earnings at a 60% clip.

Facebook is basically trading on the hope that Zuckerberg can keep Facebook growing its earnings +50% a year for quite a while. I mean the stock is worth 1/5th of Apple and doesn't come close to growing their revenue at anywhere near the 94% that Apple currently is. I think Facebook should have priced a smaller allotment than 18% of float at $30 and they would have had lots of room to grow higher. Right now they are priced for even more than perfection. I just don't see how they can do it by only selling banner ads.

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

More Looming Problems: Congress About to Jump Off The "Fiscal Cliff?"

In my opinion they have already jumped off of it but if they don't do anything by Jan 1st 2013 then it might get pretty bad.

Economists agree that tax hikes and spending cuts will drag down economic growth in 2013 yet the estimates vary. Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi predicts the fiscal drag next year could be to closer to 1.5 of a percentage point of GDP. The Congressional Budget Office calculated GDP could drop by nearly 3.6 percentage points in the 2013 fiscal year while Morgan Stanley economist David Greenlaw says fiscal tightening could translate into a 5 percent drag on GDP during the 2013 calendar year.

So with our anemic 2% GDP growth a -5% smack in the face will put us right into a recession for 2013. The bad part is that Congress is such a joke that they probably won't get anything done until right after the election. If the GOP wins they might be able to throw something together to at least push the deadline forward until the 1st quarter of 2013.

However, the markets get to be in uncertainty mode until they finally get something done. The idea that a bunch of Americans need to figure out if they will be paying 15% or 35% capital gains taxes come Jan 1st will be sure to rile the markets at the end of the year.

Obama's Gay Marriage Stance Viewed as Politcal Move according to Recent Poll

I think they did not read the poll numbers on this whole gay marriage thing that Biden had him step into.

Most of those polled say the president's position will not impact how they vote. But among those who say it will influence their choice, 26 percent said they are less likely to vote for Obama as a result, while 16 percent say they are more likely to.

And in what is expected to be a tight race, "even a small shift in swing states could be costly," says the Times.

I would be willing to bet many of those lost votes will be in areas with minorities who are religious that would normally vote for him and did so in the past. If they don't vote for him or just don't turn up like they did in 2008 then states like North Carolina, Colorado, and maybe Nevada would jump to Romney. This part of the poll jumped out at me as well.

Sixty-seven percent said they thought Obama's announcement was made "mostly for political reasons," while 24 percent said it was "mostly because he thinks it is right."

In another potentially damaging sign, 70 percent of Independents attribute the president's move to politics, along with nearly half of Democrats.

That is quite a wide margin who thinks that the only reason he made the announcement in the first place was for political reasons instead of an actual stand on an issue. Basically he flip-flopped so that he can get some of that sweet Hollywood cashola. Obama seemed like he was anti-gay marriage right up until George Clooney waved his checkbook at him. Suddenly he was all for it. That shows that Obama needs about $15 million in donations in order to change his mind on something. Maybe Israel needs to throw him a fundraiser in the near future and they can take care of this whole Iranian nuke thing.

Monday, May 14, 2012

Greece Owes 436 Million Euros Due Tomorrow?

This Greek mess is getting stranger and stranger as we speak.

Greece has a 436 million euro principal repayment due Tuesday. So far, the country has not decided what to do.

Under normal Greek-debt contracts, if Greece doesn’t pay, it would have only a seven-day grace period. But experts who have pored over all of this have found that one of the key paragraphs from the normally boiler-point language is missing. 

As a result, Greece will have a 30-day grace period, leading to the possibility of an extended, “Will they?” or “won’t they?” drama.

What sort of an organization are they running when they leave out a paragraph on how long a grace period will be when there is 436 million Euros due to your indebted asses? So is it the total amount due in 7 days or 30 days? Or will the commie government just say to hell with the payment and Greece goes into technical default? I assume they will be good for the money but 436 million Euros due tomorrow sounds pretty scary.

This whole thing reminds me of the scene from Trading Places where the Commodity Exchange guys go to the Dukes and say "Margin Call Gentlemen." Then Greece says in a high pitched voice. "We can't come up with 436 million Euros by the close of business tomorrow!" This whole thing is such a joke.

Friday, May 11, 2012

Mayan Apocalypse Put Off for Billions of Years

It seems that way from a recently unearthed Mayan calendar.

The hieroglyphs, painted in black and red, along with a colorful mural of a king and his mysterious attendants, seem to have been a sort of handy reference chart for court scribes in A.D. 800 — the astronomers and mathematicians of their day. Contrary to popular myth, this calendar isn't a countdown to the end of the world in December 2012, the study researchers said.

"The Mayan calendar is going to keep going for billions, trillions, octillions of years into the future," said archaeologist David Stuart of the University of Texas, who worked to decipher the glyphs. "Numbers we can't even wrap our heads around."

The attendants mentioned were called Older Brother Obsidian and Younger Brother Obsidian. I wonder if they were some kind of servants to the king or from the scribe class. In any case they sound like awesome both characters in a D&D game.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Hit Piece Goes After Romney in Prep School 50 years ago

Now this is a new low for the mainstream media I think.

Mitt Romney has apologized for incidents described in a Washington Post story about his prep school years in Michigan. Some of the events include forcibly cutting a boy's bleached-blond hair and hassling a closeted gay student in English class.

"Back in high school, I did some dumb things," Romney said in an interview on the "Kilmeade and Friends" talk show on Fox News radio Thursday. "And if anybody was hurt by that or offended by that, I apologize." He added: "There is no question I became a very different person since then."

These are things that happened 50 years ago. I mean just about everyone has done some stupid stuff in high school and it should not come under scrutiny if they run for President half a decade later. I mean Obama is supposed to have smoked pot and snorted coke and was a small time drug dealer at Punahou. I didn't think that was relevant to the man now because it can all be chalked up to youthful indiscretion. 

If Romney was still forcefully cutting off some blond guys long hair or Obama was dealing out of the Oval Office it would be relevant but this scrutiny is just absurd.

Friday, April 27, 2012

ETFs are like the Internet while Mutual Funds are the Newspaper Says WisdomTree CEO

I tend to agree with his statement.

"The ETF is to the mutual fund, what the internet is to the newspaper," Steinberg says in the attached video, shot after a panel discussion on the issue hosted by the New York Stock Exchange. "Because of the added functionality, full transparency, greater liquidity, greater tax efficiency, those characteristics are so important for investing. That's why I think it's a better mouse trap."

They are much easier to deal with than Mutual Funds for the most part and you don't have to worry about having a $2500 minimum in order to buy one. You can also put a nice stop loss on them just in case you want to get out of the position in a down market. With a mutual fund you have to put in a sell order and wait for the next day before it is filled. You might miss an opportunity in the meantime. You also don't have to worry about a weird capital gain or a tax bill showing up at the end of the year.

Amazingly, in the vastly growing universe of some 1,500 different exchange traded products, there are currently 47 actively managed ETFs to choose from, meaning the remaining 97% of products fall into the passive, unmanaged or specialty categories. Of those 47 actively managed funds, Steinberg's firm currently runs 14 of them, giving them a quick lead in a market segment that he says is set for "literally trillions and trillions and trillions of future growth."

The only problem I have with managed ETFs is that some of them are hardly traded and I just don't like buying a security that has a daily volume of 200-600 shares or something. It just makes me feel like I would be getting a poor price when I get into a product like that.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Playoffs? Playoffs? College Football Finally Removes Their Heads from Their Asses

I think the lure of huge money has finally outweighed all the stupidity that went on with the BCS in the past few years.

As for the 14-year-old Bowl Championship Series, it's on life support. Any chance that it survives past the next two seasons? "I hope not," said Southeastern Conference Commissioner Mike Slive, who pitched a four-team playoff four years ago but was shot down at this same hotel beachside hotel.

"This is a seismic change for college football," BCS Executive Director Bill Hancock said after the 11 conference commissioners and Notre Dame's athletic director wrapped up three days of meetings in south Florida.

I think the SEC leaning on this whole process is what made it happen. Even though there were two SEC teams going for the title this past year this Slive guy had some heavy firepower at his disposal. I think the sheer stupidity all the teams from the West Coast trying to get into the "Big East" may have turned the tide as well. 

Among those debates: Slive prefers the four top-ranked teams regardless of conferences in the playoffs. Scott likes the idea of taking the top four conference champions as a way of moving away from the subjectivity of polls that dominant the current BCS standings.

Slive's idea above would be awesome because it could give some teams from the non-power conferences a chance at the National Title. In other words if Hawaii is undefeated they can theoretically challenge for the National Title. More than likely they would be ranked number 5 but the chance is still there. But Boise would have had a shot at the National Title for several years already.

On the other hand this Scott character is obviously an idiot because it will be the Champions of the Power Conferences year after year playing in the playoffs no matter what. Who would conceive of the Mountain West Champion being given the edge over the ACC Champion or the Pac12 Champion in any given year. 

Also this system will be ripe for a screw-up where an undefeated team can't go to the playoffs even though they win their Championship while a one or more loss team wins their Championship and gets to the playoffs instead. Also if for whatever reason the SEC is left out of the playoffs expect a second succession from the Union.

What would be interesting is to see if the Playoff worthy Conference is selected because of non-conference wins against ranked opponents. So that Clemson vs. South Carolina or a Florida State vs. Florida matchup early in the season might be for a chance for their Conference to get a Playoff berth. Also you wouldn't have Texas ducking Hawaii because that win would count for a Big 12 Playoff Berth.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Awesome Gallery of 870,000 New York Photos Published Online

This seems to be an awesome historical record that I can't wait to delve into.

Almost a million images of New York and its municipal operations have been made public for the first time on the internet.
The city's Department of Records officially announced the debut of the photo database.
Culled from the Municipal Archives collection of more than 2.2 million images going back to the mid-1800s, the 870,000 photographs feature all manner of city oversight -- from stately ports and bridges to grisly gangland killings.

I know a photo can show you more history than just about anything and can seriously spark your imagination. I hope more catalogues of photos show up online for amateur historians to pour over.

The Royals Have Been Mathematically Eliminated

Well, I guess that is what this fan thinks of their 3-14 start.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Mark Your Calendar April 20, 1912 is Throwback Uniform Day at Yankee Stadium

The Red Sox cap actually looks kind of cool.

The Red Sox version, which we've seen before, is all white and decidedly no-frills. Boston always looks like a collection of house painters, ice cream men or — in the case of Dustin Pedroia — the young flat-brimmed punk loitering outside the Cinnabon at your local mall when they wear these.

The Yankees version is a little more familiar to the modern day baseball fan, though the relatively unfamiliar color combination reminds me of something the young flat-brimmed punk at your local mall would wear while standing in line at Sbarro.

The Yankee's cap does look a little like something you could buy at Lidz. However, I kind of wish they had the really small brims like they had in 1912. 

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

3D Printer Used to Make Drugs in a Lab: Um, I wouldn't take HPs Aspirin for Any Reason

Now this is really quite a breakthrough that should make drugs cheaper and easier to get out there to the masses.

Professor Lee Cronin and his team introduced the tech in a research paper, published in Nature Chemistry. The researchers modified a currently available 3D printer they purchased for $2,000, adding vessels with chemicals in them. In doing so, they created what they call "reactionware," a far cheaper, smaller scale version of incredibly expensive chemical engineering equipment.

The innovation could expand access to expensive cancer drugs, allowing pharmacies to fill prescriptions for patients on demand or even allowing patients to print their own medicine from home. According to Cronin, "we could use 3D printers to revolutionize access to health care in the developing world, allowing diagnosis and treatment to happen in a much more efficient and economical way than is possible now."

However, I would not trust any 3D printer from HP that would make my drugs. I mean first of all their software is always messy bloatware but now the quality of their printers are pretty suspect. All it takes is one driver error or fuser malfunction and you are taking arsenic instead of aspirin. I would certainly not take any drug that I would need to print from an HP home printer knowing how they are basically made to sell toner and not to last for any length of time. 

Thursday, April 12, 2012

White House goes after Stay-at-Home Moms saying they "Haven't Worked a Day in Their Lives."

This is a pretty mean thing to say about Ms. Romney and her staying home and raising her 5 sons.

The first small-print one — "Adviser to Obama, DNC Attacks Ann Romney" — goes to this video clip of DNC advisor Hilary Rosen, trying to say that Mitt Romney "doesn't connect" on the issue of women struggling economically: He's "running around the country, saying, well, my wife tells me that what women really care about are economic issues, and when I listen to my wife, that's what I'm hearing." She pauses, then blurts out the unfortunate line, which she clearly thinks is a great zinger: "Guess what? His wife has actually not worked a day in her life." She ends with "He seems so old fashioned." 

So raising 5 boys is "not working a day in her life?" I thought women were allowed to stay home and take care of their kids if they chose to. It seems that this Rosen character figures that they aren't "really working" so why pay them any mind. I wonder why the White House hates stay-at-home mothers so much?

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Whoops Spoke Too Soon: Santorum is Done; Drops out of Race

Well our access to porn is safe for the time being. The Church Lady has dropped out.

After calling Mitt Romney to concede the race for the Republican nomination, Rick Santorum suspended his campaign Tuesday during a press conference in Pennsylvania, his home state.

"We will suspend our campaign effective today," Santorum said surrounded by members of his family in Gettysburg.

Now all is left is for Newt to drop out and all the money and attention should be placed back on Romney. I think Mitt is not the best candidate we could have but the GOP now has the opportunity to close ranks and make Obama a one-termer. I'm hoping a Ryan or a Cantor as VP will get me excited about voting for Mitt.

Santorum Suspends Campaign to Take Care of Sick Daughter

Um, I think it might be time to pack up the tent Church Lady because taking care of your daughter trumps making it easy for Obama to win re-election.

Santorum announced his withdrawal from the race in Gettysburg, Pa., where he was originally scheduled to hold an event as he said that daughter Bella's illness was part of the reason he considered suspending the campaign.

Tuesday, April 03, 2012

Blackstone's Byron Wien Says Bull Market Will Continue the Rest of the Year

He seems to be considering there is money on the sidelines that has yet to enter the market.

“Over the past three months the pessimistic mood has changed to optimism,” continues Wien, formerly the long-time chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley. “Ordinarily, optimistic sentiment readings presage a market correction, but there are so many investors looking for an opportunity to increase their exposure that even a minor downdraft gets cut short by a flood of buyers. This could continue for a while.”

I know there seems to be a move out of bonds and into stocks. I think many Americans are getting tired of earning less than 1% interest on their money. Also he cites Apple paying a dividend which may mean companies might be whittling down their cash hoards so that they could give it back to investors. We just need to watch out for the sabre rattling coming out of Iran because $300 oil will black swan this market.

Monday, April 02, 2012

Someone Needs to Get Fired at NBC for Doctoring Zimmerman 911 Tapes: Today Show Should be Ashamed

This has to be one of the most egregious examples on how the media just does whatever it wants even if it has to doctor footage to get their narrative strait.

As exposed by Fox News and media watchdog site NewsBusters, the “Today” segment took this approach to a key part of the dispatcher call:
Zimmerman: This guy looks like he’s up to no good. He looks black.
Here’s how the actual conversation went down:
Zimmerman: This guy looks like he’s up to no good. Or he’s on drugs or something. It’s raining and he’s just walking around, looking about.
Dispatcher: OK, and this guy — is he black, white or Hispanic?
Zimmerman: He looks black.
Zimmerman just went from a guy answering a dispatchers question to a racist in one little turn of the editors sound board knob. I mean does NBC think they could get away with kind of thing without some sort of oversight. If not for hated Fox News and their so-called "conservative agenda" this kind of blatant falsehood would have been hidden from everyone. I really hope this went all the way up to Matt Laurer so they can clean house and get some actual unbiased newspeople in there. Until then I'm done watching the Today Show. I hope anyone who cares about unbiased news is with me as well.

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Obama Stabs Israel Right in the Back for His Re-election Bid

I guess pleading for Israel to wait until after the election to strike Iran was just his opening gambit. Now Obama is determined to throw Israel under the bus for daring to protect themselves from a possible nuclear annihilation.

The first report in Foreign Policy quotes anonymous American officials saying that Israel has been given access to airbases by Iran's northern neighbor Azerbaijan from which Israel could launch air strikes or at least drones and search and rescue aircraft.

The second report from Bloomberg, based on a leaked congressional report, said that Iran's nuclear facilities are so dispersed that it is "unclear what the ultimate effect of a strike would be…" A strike could delay Iran as little as six months, a former official told the researchers.

"It seems like a big campaign to prevent Israel from attacking," analyst Yoel Guzansky at the Institute for National Security Studies told ABC News. "I think the [Obama] administration is really worried Jerusalem will attack and attack soon. They're trying hard to prevent it in so many ways."

The first leak is absolutely egregious because it is telegraphing Israels attack plan and will probably get a lot of IDF pilots and maybe even Azerbaijani Air Force ground crews killed. I could see Iran preemptively striking these airbases before the IDF can get their planes in place. They could also mass their air defenses in the northern part of the country and be ready for a strike they know will come. That move put a lot of lives in danger.

Also the idea of a tie between Azerbaijan and Israel is probably quite a state secret if it is true and Obama just ruined that so he could get the Jewish vote to win re-election. I'm hoping this is a smoke screen by Israel to throw Iran off and maybe get them to put their anti-aircraft missiles in the wrong area or maybe goad the Iranians into striking first. If it isn't and Obama leaked this info then it would have to be one of the worst betrayals of an ally in US history.

The second leak was just Congress saying that Israel shouldn't strike Iran because you only put their nuclear program back by 6 months. I mean it is still better than negotiating with Iran while they have their program going full blast. I mean Israel doesn't care about US elections they only want to prevent a second Holocaust and a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. I am seriously hoping that this is just a ruse and not Obama selling Israel out to insure the Jewish vote in November.

Friday, March 09, 2012

Damn Austerity Measures!: Germany's Bild Newspaper Removes Topeless Cover Models

I guess keeping up with the European hard-nosed banker role they are trying to banish any impropriety from their most circulated newspaper.

"There's long been a discussion about whether it's still in keeping with the times," Tobias Fröhlich, a spokesman for the Bild publisher Axel Springer AG, told Der Spiegel.

However, the newspaper did not rule out publishing nude women within its pages ("better-wrapped, inside the paper"), as other newspapers in Europe do.

Well at least the nude women will be inside the paper hidden from the prying eyes of the party-boy Greeks, Italians, Portuguese trying to get their hands on that sweet German cashola.

I mean Europe expects a certain decorum and sedateness from the new German Banking Empire. So that means more hard faced women in pant suits and less topless babes in thongs. I mean you don't want Germany getting all Bunga Bunga on Europe now.

GM Goes Long Peugeot Citroen to the Tune of $400 Million: Did you do your DD American Taxpayer?

Since we are part owners of GM by owning 1/4 of the company it would be a good idea to see what they are wasting their money on. In this case we invested $400 million in a nearly bankrupt French car maker.

Peugeot can undoubtedly use the cash.  Last year, Peugeot's auto making division lost $123 million.  And on March 1 - just a day after the deal with GM was announced - Moody's downgraded Peugeot's credit rating to junk status with a negative outlook, citing "severe deterioration" of its finances.

In other words, General Motors essentially just dumped more than $400 million of taxpayer assets on junk bonds.

The article write says buying junk bonds is a bad thing but I would really like more information as to the solvency of Peugeot going forward. Losing $123 million in a year isn't too bad unless their cash reserves are in the toilet. How much is their debt load? How much of the losses is debt service and is the revenues growing? What about their union contracts? That is the kind of information that I would want to see before a company I own (as an American taxpayer) forks over $400 million to buy shares in that company. 

Shouldn't that $400 million go to paying off GM debt, buying back shares, or simply buying me out as the part owner of a company emerging from bankruptcy? In any case I really hope we don't see any Peugots being sold in the US. One goofy looking European car (Fiat) is more than enough.

Weird Explosion Caught on Phoenix Newscast

Now this is one strange burst of light.

The strange blast was caught on tape and aired live during Robinson's report. At first, news station employees thought the explosion was a transformer. But when FOX 10 checked with local utility providers APS and Salt River Project, they were told no transformers had blown in the area.

It really looks like a shell exploded but you figure there would be all sorts of outcry if that happened. When I first saw it at full speed I kind of thought it looked like the sci-fi interpretation of faster than light travel. Kind of what the Enterprise does in Star Trek. Here is the video so you can see for yourself:

Obama Thinking About Building Manufacturing Hub

This is a very interesting idea that should have some bipartisan support I should think.

President Barack Obama announced Friday that the administration will launch a manufacturing hub designed to bring together academics, government engineers and private industry to design cutting-edge materials, equipment and manufacturing processes.

This seems to be a sort of research factory and depending on what they patent it might eventually pay for itself instead of being a money vacuum like everything else in the government. It would certainly bring in high paying jobs and tax revenue to whatever state it is built in.

Tuesday, March 06, 2012

Romney's Wife Now Looks Like a Clueless Millionairess

These people just can't get out of the way of their own wealth sometimes.

Attempting to make the point that there are things more important than money, she instead uttered, "I don't even consider myself wealthy, which is an interesting thing. It can be here today gone tomorrow." During the same interview, speaking about the horseback riding therapy she uses to treat her multiple sclerosis, she said, according to Boston Globe reporter Michael Levenson, "Some people have lovers in every port; I have horses in every port."

Yup its not like she is a billionaire. Then she would feel wealthy. The correct way to have said that line so that it didn't sound tone-deaf was "with Obama lurking about with his hatred of the well-to-do all the wealth we have might be gone at any moment. So we really cherish it."

Then don't talk about how many horses you have. A guy without a job does not want to hear about your pure-bred Arabian stallions that you have at your various mansions. It isn't the 80s anymore. I wish Eric Cantor or Paul Ryan was our candidate and not Monopoly Man Mitt.

Monday, March 05, 2012

Clueless Democrats Rail Against Oil "Speculation"

I swear sometimes the Dems are so clueless when it comes to things like commodity prices that you wonder how they got their jobs in the first place.

"As the cost for American people to fill their gas tanks continues to skyrocket, the CFTC continues to drag its feet on imposing strict speculation limits to eliminate, prevent, or diminish excessive oil speculation," the members of Congress told the commissioners in a letter. "We urge you to take immediate action to impose strong and meaningful position limits, and to utilize all authorities available to you to make sure that the price of oil and gasoline reflects the fundamentals of supply and demand." 

Um, speculation does not drive up oil prices nearly as much as the threat of an Israel/Iran War would. I swear the Dems see shady bankers and Wall Street types hiding under every rock. The funny part is that these changes only effect US traders because of the hated Dodd-Frank Law. Oil futures are a global market so traders in other countries might not feel these sanctions at all while US firms have to deal with them.

Also is hedging by an oil major considered speculation? I mean they are betting against their own production of oil in order to limit their downside. So they are speculating that the price does not drop below a certain amount so they don't start to lose money. Would a limit on the total contracts they own affect this hedging? Who knows? The Dems certainly are clueless on this issue.

McCain Calls for Bombing of Syria

Well, I guess he has a point where we bomb Libya to save civilians but don't do so in Syria is sending a message that we are inconsistent in our want of regime changes.

"The United States should lead an international effort to protect key population centers in Syria, especially in the north, through airstrikes on Assad's forces," McCain, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in a speech on the Senate floor.

"To be clear: This will require the United States to suppress enemy air defense in at least part of the country," said McCain, who has repeatedly called in recent weeks and months for a stepped-up U.S. effort to protect Syrian civilians.

I think it would be a good use of force to start bombing Syria into submission. It would eliminate one of our last enemies in the region and will force Iran to stand alone. However, Syria is a lot more advanced than Libya and their air defense is state of the art from Russia though. It would not be a cake walk and we might lose some pilots in any protracted air war with Syria. I hope McCain would be ready for something like that happening.

The Whole Limbaugh Calling Fluke a Slut is a Double Standard: But I'm Glad Rush Apologized

Well Rush apologized which I think is pretty appropriate for attacking a seemingly innocent law student who wanted her college to pay for her birth control.

"I descended to [the left's] level when I used those two words to describe Sandra Fluke," Limbaugh said. "I've always tried to maintain a very high degree of integrity and independence on this program. Nevertheless, those two words were inappropriate. They were uncalled for. They distracted from the point that I was actually trying to make, and I again sincerely apologize to Ms. Fluke for using those two words to describe her. I do not think she is either of those two words. I did not think last week that she is either of those two words."

Yes, it is up to conservatives to practice civility and refrain from name-calling. The left does that all the time and guys like Rush should not stoop to their level. I mean Bill Maher called Sarah Palin a cunt during his stand-up act and the National Organization of Women doesn't want him removed from HBO. In fact NOW hasn't said a word about misogyny form the left at all. Now Rush and Maher share the exact same boat. But it is up to Rush to be above Maher and not personally attack people that disagree with him. I'm glad he apologized.

Friday, March 02, 2012

GM Scales Back Volt Production

Well it seems they are just not selling like they should be. So much for the green jobs Obama was promising people.

General Motors GM +0.15% will halt production of the Chevy Volt electric car for five weeks, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a spokesman. Around 1,300 workers at GM's Hamtramck, Mich. factory where the Volt is built will be out of work between March 19 and April 23, the report said, citing the spokesman. GM sold about 7,700 Volts last year, below its target of 10,000.

Thursday, March 01, 2012

Oil Prices Briefly Move Higher on Fire Hoax

I hope the SEC gets to the bottom of this chicanery.


“The reports are completely untrue. They originated from Facebook and Twitter, and the pipeline is still up and running,” one official told Dow Jones Newswires.

Oil futures jumped over $110.55 a barrel in after-hours trading Thursday following a report from Tehran’s PressTV which said that an explosion destroyed pipelines in the “flashpoint” Saudi city of Awamiyah.
An online website called the Arab Digest posted a headline “Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Revolution hits the oil sector – pipeline under fire” and two photos of what it claimed was a pipeline fire. Neither photo showed a pipeline, and the fires didn’t appear large. The photos couldn’t be authenticated.  The site quoted what it said was an unidentified resident of Qatif calling the blazes a message to the U.S. to pressure Saudi Arabia for reform.
“This is just a false propaganda, and we are not going to entertain it,” a second Saudi official said.

I would like to see if this Arab Digest has ties to the Iranian regime or not. 

Monday, February 27, 2012

Ways to Fix the Oscars

Well changing hosts might not be a good idea but I agree that the show is looking pretty old and tired.

1. Go Back to Five Best Picture Nominees:

I have to agree with this point. This year you knew that The Artist was a sort of lock to win it all so the other 9 movies are just a waste of time. It narrows the field and if Oscar watchers are interested they could see these movies before the telecast so they can handicap it. Only one year did I watch all 5 movies that were nominated but it is kind of nice to see a movie that I saw and loved win the award (ie Kings Speech, Return of the King, The Departed)

2. When the Academy Gives You Lemons, Make What Jimmy Kimmel Did

Yeah I think amping up the comedy regardless of what movies are nominated is a good idea. I think the Oscars get to stiff-necked sometimes and need to make fun of themselves more often.

3. Make the Show About the Year in Film, Not the Year in Awards Season:

This is a great idea. Make it a celebration of the year in movies more than a celebration of a few movies that almost nobody goes to see. That way, when you watch, at least you can see a few of your favorites along with whatever black and white silent film the Academy is honoring.

4. Old Flim Clips: Just Bury Them at Sea Already:

Yeah we don't need to remind people how much better Casablanca, Patton, or Bridge Over the River Kwai is than most of the crap that comes out these days. 

5. More Sacha Baron Cohen:
They should have so made him a presenter and allowed him to go ape-shit. The buzz seems to be what we remember from the telecast anyway so they might as well ramp it up a bit. I remember Roberto Benigni getting all nutzo when he won Best Actor far more than the movie that won that year. I think getting a few stunts in makes the show memorable and goes back to the notion that the Oscars should not be so stiff-necked about themselves. Maybe they should let everyone get drunk like the Golden Globes?

Obama Sneaks Dividend Tax Hike Into Budget

This guy just can't resist hiking taxes on everyone and hitting retirees directly in the teeth.

Mr. Obama is proposing to raise the dividend tax rate to the higher personal income tax rate of 39.6% that will kick in next year. Add in the planned phase-out of deductions and exemptions, and the rate hits 41%. Then add the 3.8% investment tax surcharge in ObamaCare, and the new dividend tax rate in 2013 would be 44.8%—nearly three times today's 15% rate. 

We are only just getting dividends back up to a decent level and this ignoramus wants to tax them at nearly triple the rate? The funny part is that they think that only people making $200K or more will be affected by this stupidity.

Companies don't make dividend decisions based on people making more than some magic "not paying their fair share" number. They make it on the total amount of people receiving dividends. So if dividends are taxed at 44% then companies will just sink them into stock buybacks and cease paying them out.  It seems like the kind of plan a person who owns nearly no stocks (Obama the king of the Profit and Earnings Ratio) would come up with.

Actually, the people this hoses are retirees who are using income mutual funds to augment their social security money. They get like 0.5% interest from the bank, treasury bonds pay hardly anything, and now Obama wants to indirectly steal their dividend money as well?

It almost seems like a reckless plan to get all seniors on Social Security (and Social Secuity only) so that they can be easily manipulated. So it comes down to vote for the Dems you retirees or we will starve you to death. Luckily this budget can be safely ignored. I was praising the damn thing too just a little while ago. I guess Obama just can't resist the impulse to hike taxes anyway he can get away with it.

Scientific Ethics Task Force Chair Resigns After Phishing Attack on Climate Skeptics

I think this really is no way for a scientist to act when they are trying to convince people to fork over billions to prevent something that they say are happening.

Peter Gleick resigned as chair of AGU’s Task Force on Scientific Ethics on 16 February, prior to admitting in a blog post that he obtained documents from the Heartland Institute under false pretenses. His transgression cannot be condoned, regardless of his motives. It is a tragedy that requires us to stop and reflect on what we value as scientists and how we want to be perceived by the public.

Yeah, after Climate scientists were caught fooling with models and "hiding the decline" they are now phishing their skeptics in order to dig up dirt on them. I didn't think they could have done any more damage to their reps but this makes things even worse. It really shows that they will stop at nothing like modern day Crusaders to get their point across.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Brave Kid Goes Home Rather Than Face more Painful Cancer Treatments

Now this 12 year old has more guts then 20 guys my age.

A 12-year old boy who has battled a rare form of cancer since he was 7 has made a bold decision. He is stopping his treatments so he can go home and be with his family.

Alex Rodriguez  is aware of what his decision means. So is his hometown of Shelbyville, Tenn., which has rallied around the boy who is facing such a stark decision with such maturity and good humor.

That is quite a tough choice for anyone to make. It's also good to see the town rally around him. This part touched me:

Jeffrey McGee, a minister from Edgemont Baptist Church who set up a bank account for donations, is asking stores in the area to cover up their signs with messages to Alex so when he rides through town he can see people supporting him.

Florists in town are putting together blue ribbons for people to hang outside on their mailboxes or street lamps to show their support.

That will probably be his last ride and it will be surrounded by an outpouring of support from his entire town. A great way to go out I should say.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Obama Considers Lowering the Corporate Tax Rate; Good Job Barry

Well I guess he seems to want to cut taxes somewhere at long last.

The president wants to lower the U.S. corporate tax rate from the current 35 percent, the highest in the world after Japan. Under his plan, manufacturers would receive incentives so that their effective tax rate could be even lower. 

Obama's election-year plan would set a new 28 percent corporate tax rate, still higher than the 25 percent rate sought by congressional Republicans. 

At least it is a starting point to jump off from. Also getting rid of all the corporate welfare that allowed GE to pay $0 in taxes is also something I get behind as well. I'm not so sure about having some minimum tax on overseas profits but something needs to be done to repatriate those funds.

Some companies have billions of dollars trapped overseas because they don't want to give 35% of that money to the government as soon as they ship it back. Maybe tax it at half the rate or something for a period of time then bring it up to the normal rate later on. Companies should not be penalized for growing their companies outside of the US but they should pay some taxes on that money though.

Christie Tells Buffett to Shut Up

Well, I have to agree with the governor on this point.

"He should just write a check and shut up," Christie said. "I'm tired of hearing about it. If he wants to give the government more money, he's got the ability to write a check -- go ahead and write it."

Earlier in the interview, responding to a question on class warfare in the political system, Christie, who has developed a reputation for not mincing words, said he didn't want to discuss Buffett.

"I'm so tired of talking about Warren Buffett," Christie said. "What are you going to bring up next, his secretary?"

There is a line on his taxes that says Taxes Owed. If Buffett thinks things are unfair then take whatever figure on that line and add 15% or 25% when he makes out the check. Call it the Leaving a Generous Gratuity for all the good work that Buffett thinks the government does. I'm sure it will be wasted in some record time or go to pay off some Red Chinese banker somewhere.

Hell, if I could get my way (and not go to jail) I would not pay taxes until there is a firm auditing of every department by an unimpeachable outside source. Once I know my money isn't poured down a crap-hole somewhere then I will gladly pay taxes.

I will still bristle at paying capital gains taxes though. I took the risk and did the Due Diligence why should the government get a cut of my gain when the company I invested in has already paid taxes? The same goes for dividends and interest. Any meaningful tax reform should lower my capital gains and dividends taxes to 0% or it is just crap to me.

Hot Water World Found Only 40 Light Years Away

I wonder if this would be a prime candidate to send a probe out to some time in the future.

But GJ 1214b, which is located 40 light-years from Earth in the constellation Ophiuchus (The Serpent Bearer), is something new altogether, researchers said.

This so-called "super-Earth" is about 2.7 times Earth’s diameter and weighs nearly seven times as much as our home planet. It orbits a red-dwarf star at a distance of 1.2 million miles (2 million kilometres), giving it an estimated surface temperature of 446 degrees Fahrenheit (230 degrees Celsius) — too hot to host life as we know it.

Scientists first reported in 2010 that GJ 1214b's atmosphere is likely composed primarily of water, but their findings were not definitive. Berta and his team used Hubble's Wide Field Camera 3 to help dispel the doubts.

I'm sure the surface of this super ocean is too hot for life but I would be willing to bet that there is something interesting far below the surface. Also it is quite a bit closer to this red dwarf star so the gravity on the planet would be much higher than that of earth. So my money would be on super worms as long as subway trains, and massive whales as big as office buildings, fighting sharks the size of an industrial earth movers. It would be one strange world indeed.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Is Linsanity Helping the Asian Male?

Well according to this article it is going a long way toward doing just that.

This is why the Jeremy Lin phenomenon has been so spectacular. While it does transcend race -- his story is the perfect storm of underdog elements being played out in the media capital of the world -- it does not exclude race. Lin is a breakthrough because the Asian American male has always lagged behind in cultural visibility and acceptance. There has been progress in other areas, particularly entertainment, but sports has been the final frontier. "If you look at it historically, the dominant group has always favored the female of a minority, seeing them as assets, commodities or possessions," says Ruth Chung, a USC professor who specializes in Asian American cultural identity. "Males are seen as competition, and for Asian American men, their greatest threat to white males was perceived to be their intelligence, so it was always easy to stereotype them as being geeky and socially inept."

Yeah the stereotype was that Asian American men were good at math but poor at driving to the hoop or getting the girl in a movie. The only bad-assed Asians I know are martial arts guys from China or Japan and not really many Americans. However, Lin breaks this stereotype by being really good at a sport where there really isn't any social promotion. You can either blow past defenders and score 28 points a game or you can't.

Now all Lin needs is a super hot girlfriend who is not Asian and we will have liftoff. I mean if he dates the typical demure Asian girl then he goes right back into the stereotype. However, if he dates some awesome looking Latina or even a black girl then all bets are off.

Troy Aikman Says Football Might Not Be No.1 Sport in 20 years

I have a feeling he might be right on some counts.

The Super Bowl XXVII MVP said the NFL Network's struggles should be a red flag to owners: "People couldn't get [the channel] in the homes and, all of sudden, fans, me included, were saying, 'I wasn't getting the Thursday night game and I was OK with that.' That’s not a good thing."

Aikman spoke of his worry about the dilution of a product that is currently wildly popular. 

"At one time, watching football was an event," Aikman said. "'Monday Night Football' was a big event. Now you get football Sunday, you get it Monday, you get it Thursday and, late in the year, you get it on Saturday."

I have to agree with Aikman that the only Thursday game that I regretted seeing was one where the Houston Texans were playing. That was only because I had Arian Foster as my running back on my Fantasy team.

I think in some ways Fantasy Football might be contributing to both a resurgence in the sport but might also cause a crash as well. I know before this season I really only cared about what team had my players on them and only watched their games.

The season I had Ray Rice on my team was the one that I watched a ton of Ravens games. I haven't watched one since because I don't have anyone from that team anymore. Just like this coming year I would probably not watch many Texans games because I doubt I will get Arian Foster on my team again. If Fantasy Football lost popularity for whatever reason you might see ratings dip right afterward.

However, I will be following the 49ers because I finally settled on a team that I can back. Before that I really didn't care too much about any one team and I would only tune in to the one good matchup per week. That usually meant the Sunday Night Football game and nothing else. I usually don't get up early on Sunday morning to watch any of the early games and I watch the UH game instead of the late morning games.

I think what the NFL needs to do to create lasting fans in areas where there is no home team presence is to section off the country by team. This was similar to how baseball did it in the 80s. There are all sorts of Braves fans out here because TBS used to show all of their games and people followed the team from day to day.

What they need to do is show the Raiders game and then the 49ers game with the hometown feed instead of whatever crappy East Coast game CBS and Fox wants us to watch. I'm so tired of watching Philadelphia playing the Giants or whatever. I doubt there are many fans of either team at all in Hawaii.

I'm not really sure how much of a following these teams have outside of the East Coast in general as well. The idea of "America's Team" is long gone as far as I can tell. So when the Philly/Giants game is on I check my roster and say I have Victor Cruz on my team so I watch the game. If I have no one on either team I just switch over to Antiques Roadshow. My experience might not be typical but I have always enjoyed college football more than the NFL in the first place.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Home Ownership Might Not Be Much of a Money Maker Long Term

This wealth manager crunched the numbers and it looks like owning your own home is not a wealth builder but mostly a store of wealth.

McBride crunched the numbers in a pre-bubble era (2004) for a home purchased at $200,000 by a buyer in the 27 percent marginal tax bracket. Factoring in a 30-year mortgage, $1,200 in annual home insurance, closing costs of $5,500 and maintenance costs of $100 a month, along with property taxes, he calculated that it would take a selling price, 10 years later, of $395,404 just to break even. His conclusion gave Arzaga's view credence: "Homeownership may not be the moneymaker you think it is." 

So your house would nearly have to double in order for you to make your money back. That is a 9% gain each year or you will be falling behind. I wonder what this breakdown would be for owning an apartment?

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Can Linsanity be the End of the Bear Market?

It at least would coincide with a national mood recovery.

Jeremy Lin is different. While at 6'3” and 200 pounds he's anything but undersized for an ordinary man, he's physically, culturally, and emotionally someone Americans can relate to. After what we've gone through as a country over the past decade, who among us can't understand feeling too small, overlooked, and seeking job stability, just hoping anyone will give us a chance?

Yeah even though he had a Harvard degree two teams passed up on him and the Knicks nearly cut him. Now he is on top of the world. The thing that is interesting is that he looks like Jeremy from Accounts Receivable and not your typical tattoo covered NBA star that was special from birth like Kobe or LaBron. 
 
I mean Americans can relate to the idea that they are overlooked by Washington,Wall Street, and the rest of the world just like Lin was overlooked by the rest of the NBA. The everyman that makes good meme is deeply ingrained in America. It shows up with Abe Lincoln (lawyer from Illinois becomes President,) James Braddock (Longshoreman from Hells Kitchen becomes Champ)
 
Maybe the "everyman that makes it good" spirit will be reflected in a doubling of the S&P500 like what happened when Jackie Robinson and Fernando Valenzuela burst on the scene in the 40s and 80s respectively.

Jaworski out on Monday Night Football

Well, it seems that Jaws was one too many for the MNF booth.

Jaworski will remain at the network and appear on various programs, including "Countdown" and "Matchup."

The longtime ESPN analyst had been in the MNF booth since 2007, replacing Joe Theismann after one season. He was supposed to add a respected football voice to a broadcast that included Tony Kornheiser. He dutifully played that role for two years until Jon Gruden was brought in as Kornheiser's replacement. It was all downhill from there.

I think Jaws sounded too much like Gruden and it was kind of hard to figure out who was talking sometimes. I mean the pitch of their voices were almost exactly the same so it was pretty strange to hear them agreeing with one another. I think a two man booth will be much clearer and easier to listen to.


However NFL Matchup is an awesome show that is one of the best on ESPN. You really get the behind the scenes Xs and Os view of football that many fans do not see. They need to expand the format and maybe bring in Mike Ditka and have it on more often. Maybe have it on right before Monday Night Football to have them break down the game before it starts. 

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

5 Treaties the Obama White House Should Not Sign

Well it seems that we are negotiating some seriously flawed treaties that will take away American sovereignty in a big way. The thing that Morris doesn't seem to get though is that these treaties will probably not get halfway through even a Democratically controlled congress in their current form.

This one sounds especially egregious:

Law of the Sea Treaty (LOST) has been signed, and the Obama administration — with the aid of RINO Sen. Richard Lugar (Ind.) — will push for its ratification as soon as Lugar’s primary in Indiana is over this year. LOST requires that the United States pay an international body half of its royalties from offshore drilling. The body would then distribute the funds as it sees fit to whichever nations it chooses. The United States would only have one vote out of 160 regarding where the money goes. LOST will also oblige us to hand over our offshore drilling technology to any nation that wants it … for free.

I would be willing to bet even money that Mexico, Brazil, and Nigeria would never sign onto this treaty because it would damage their home grown undersea drilling. The idea that Petrobras would kick back 50% of their profits to some international body would be ludicrous. Also they would never drive away the other drillers (and the money they pay the Brazilian government) that are taking advantage of their huge offshore oil strike.

Also the idea that offshore drilling technology will be handed off is not some terrible thing. Currently much of the drilling technology seems pretty homogeneous and Petrobras is using the same super deep water drilling technology as TransOcean does as far as I can tell. I mean any country or company domiciled anywhere in the world can commission the building of a super deep water rig for whatever billion it costs. I mean this is not nuclear secrets we are talking about.

Thursday, February 09, 2012

For the First Time Since 1978 the US Okays the Building of Nuke Plants

It has been about time the nuclear regulatory agency has gotten off their asses and started to address our power issues.

The newly approved AP1000 reactors for the Vogtle plant — to be made by Westinghouse — have safety features that would give people "days instead of hours" to restore electric power in a Fukushima scenario, McFarlane told InnovationNewsDaily. The Fukushima reactors suffered a meltdown after the lack of electricity knocked out their cooling systems.

In the new models, which Westinghouse already has built for China, "the water needed to cool the reactors is stored inside the containment building rather than outside of containment," explained Robert Buell, a risk analyst at Idaho National Laboratory. "You use physics and natural circulation along the containment walls to cool the reactors instead of relying on mechanical systems."

Wait until we get some closed fuel cycle reactors online and we can forget about the nuclear waste problem and the meltdown problems all at once. I hate how Fukushima damaged the nuclear industry for years to come. It is the only viable energy source that doesn't use coal or the increasingly expensive oil. Only natural gas comes close in price but does not have the efficiency of 3rd generation reactors.

It Seems Google+ might be a Competitor After All

Well I signed up for Google+ a while back because it was tied to my Gmail and I thought I might as well. It seems they are growing pretty fast so far.

Among social networks, Google + (GOOG) is growing faster than Facebook, just after one year of existence. While it took Facebook nearly a year to reach a million users and more than four years to reach 100 million, it took only Google+ about two weeks to reach 10 million, and less than a year to reach 100 million.

About the only thing Facebook does better than Google+ is that it has more people on it. So you have a better chance to find people you know. But as Google+ builds I can see it actually going head to head with Facebook. So far the only thing I have been doing on Google+ is playing Gardens of Time but once more people I know go on there I can see me spending more time there.

20 - 30somethings Voted for Obama in Large Numbers and Have Nothing to Show for It

Well, it seems that 20 and 30 somethings are seriously hurting in the Obameconomy.

—The share of young adults 18-24 who are employed has dropped to 54.3 percent, the lowest level since the government began tracking such data in 1948. In the downturn, the employment decline has been steeper for this age group than any other; at the end of 2011, the unemployment rate was 16.3 percent for 18-to-24-year olds and 8.8 percent for adults ages 18-64. After the recession technically ended in mid-2009, the gap in the unemployment rate between those two age groups stretched to the widest on record. 

In other words they aren't getting employed right out of college anymore. The job that usually goes to them instead goes to an older person with tons of experience that was displaced from some other job. This statistic was really nuts I think:

—About 19 percent of men ages 25-34 were idle in the weak job market, neither working nor attending school. That's up from 14 percent in 2007. 

So that is 1 out of 5 men are not looking for work but not going to school either. I guess they are sitting on their couch playing Modern Warfare 3 or something. I really hope they come to their senses and vote for ABO (anyone but Obama) come this November.

Tuesday, February 07, 2012

Now Timmy Tebow don't do Anything Un-Christian with Maria Menounos

It seems he may have made a love match at the Super Bowl festivities.

The Chicago Sun-Times reports Tebow was "quite taken" after being introduced to Maria Menounos during his travels around Indianapolis for Super Bowl week. According to the newspaper, Tebow was overheard talking to a friend about the fetching "Extra" host at a Friday party. "Wow!" Tebow reportedly said. "She's not only gorgeous, she's really sweet too." 

The pair was spotted getting "very cozy" at the ESPN Party, according to the Sun-Times. Menounos and Tebow reportedly ran into each other at several other Super Bowl shindigs over the weekend.

Yeah don't do anything with your "Satan parts" that Jesus would not approve of. I mean she does hang out with skeezy-looking director types like Keven Undergaro. (I'm sure he is a nice enough person but he looks like the kind of guy that would pinch a passing Italian woman's butt.)

When I Wasn't Looking Everyone Turned on the BCS

Wow, I was not keeping up with college football for a few months and suddenly everyone turned on the BCS and are finally talking playoffs. In the words of Jim Mora: PLAYOFFS! PLAYOFFS? Indeed yes.

The Big Ten is open to more than a four-team playoff – expanding access to increase the likelihood a team from the conference makes the field. It also is contemplating a plan to have the semifinals played at campus sites and for the championship game to be open to bid by any city, not just traditional bowl sites. That would include some in the Midwest, particularly Indianapolis, which just flawlessly hosted the Super Bowl.

The idea of the National Championship then the Super Bowl all hosted in one city sounds like a great idea. Just have the various cities bid for it and have it move around the country like the NCAA Final Four. Also the idea of the higher seed having a home field advantage is an outstanding idea as well.

This also would create incredible inter-regional matchups in the game’s best settings: USC playing at Bryant-Denny Stadium? Oklahoma in the Horseshoe? Nebraska in the Swamp? Boise State at LSU’s Death Valley? Texas at Autzen? And so on. And so on.

Or would you prefer the Alamodome?
 
That would be such a a huge incentive to win out in order to get your home playoff game in front of 80,000 of your screaming fans. So this gets rid of the asinine "the regular season wouldn't matter with a playoff in place" argument.

Also it's always good to see national powers square off in games that matter and not just that opening game of the year. It would have been so cool to have seen Hawaii get slaughtered by Georgia at Sanford Stadium "between the hedges" instead of the Super Dome. One of the greatest football games I have seen was at Bryant Denny Stadium when Hawaii played Alabama. Imagine if that game was for the chance to play for the National Title?

Monday, February 06, 2012

SOPA Dead! Now Congress Take a Break

Well at least someone in Congress decided to stop the destruction of the next Google or Facebook before it was too late.

In the aftermath of the defeat of the Stop Online Piracy Act and Protect IP Act, a long list of organizations have sent a letter to Congress asking members to “take a breath” before they trying to push through new piracy legislation.

I have to agree with this group because rights need to be protected but not at the expense of innovation. I think a few hearings with tech giants would be in order to understand exactly what is needed going forward.