This blog talks about this day in history "Bull" Conner the Democratic police commissioner of Alabama attacking black school children with dogs and water hoses and arresting thousands of them. I didn't know how high a functionary he was in the Democratic Party though:
At the time, it should be noted, Connor was the Democratic National Committeeman for Alabama. Connor's men used high-pressure hoses, clubs and dogs in their assault, and then jailed nearly a thousand children.
A member of the Ku Klux Klan, Connor had been a Democrat state legislator and a delegate to the 1948 Democratic National Convention. A year after attacking the African-American children, Connor was elected, as a Democrat, president of the state Public Service Commission.
Friday, May 02, 2008
The US Should not Fill the SPR with $116 oil
It seems that suspending the gas tax will only have Americans a few hundred dollars at most over the summer. However, I do agree with McCain that stopping adding to the SPR is the way to go. In fact they seemed to have added another 208,000 barrels to the SPR this week and they paid $116 a barrel for that oil.
Why are they buying more oil to fill the thing at this outrageous price? They need to stop filling the thing when prices are high and ramp up the purchases when prices are lower. The classic doubling down strategy. I mean the thing has 710 million barrels of oil in it already. What constitutes full capacity? Or do they just buy more on some kind of autopilot plan?
I think demand reduction is an important tool to combat high oil prices. The government shouldn't be buying $116 a barrel oil just to stick it in some salt-mine somewhere. They should just wait and fill the thing up to the brim at $80-$90 oil instead. Also the idea that the US government will not be buying at really high prices might drain some speculators out of the market. Oil demand according to the IMF is already going down as economies start to slow.
Also I seriously doubt that Americans will be driving like crazy during "driving season" with gas prices at $3.60 a gallon. They might be taking vacations as close to home as possible (or not at all) to save money. They might even stay home and fill up the backyard pool and spend their time off in their own houses doing repairs and enjoying themselves in their own cities. I'm still short oil since I really don't think the demand metrics will be able to hold prices at this level and the supply concerns seem to be more and more smoke in mirrors and "fears of uncertainty" then real concrete disruptions.
Why are they buying more oil to fill the thing at this outrageous price? They need to stop filling the thing when prices are high and ramp up the purchases when prices are lower. The classic doubling down strategy. I mean the thing has 710 million barrels of oil in it already. What constitutes full capacity? Or do they just buy more on some kind of autopilot plan?
I think demand reduction is an important tool to combat high oil prices. The government shouldn't be buying $116 a barrel oil just to stick it in some salt-mine somewhere. They should just wait and fill the thing up to the brim at $80-$90 oil instead. Also the idea that the US government will not be buying at really high prices might drain some speculators out of the market. Oil demand according to the IMF is already going down as economies start to slow.
Also I seriously doubt that Americans will be driving like crazy during "driving season" with gas prices at $3.60 a gallon. They might be taking vacations as close to home as possible (or not at all) to save money. They might even stay home and fill up the backyard pool and spend their time off in their own houses doing repairs and enjoying themselves in their own cities. I'm still short oil since I really don't think the demand metrics will be able to hold prices at this level and the supply concerns seem to be more and more smoke in mirrors and "fears of uncertainty" then real concrete disruptions.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
CEO of Starbucks Pushes the "Experience"
Too bad the numbers were kind of crappy. Also they seem to be scaling back their expansion to cut back on costs. That seems reasonable to me.
Yet, last week, Schultz blamed the down economy for having to cut guidance for the quarter and warned investors to expect the blow.
Revenues for the second fiscal quarter totaled $5.3 billion, 15.2% year-over-year. United States revenues were up 5.5% to $1.9 billion. Total costs of sales increased 17.1% to $1.1 billion.
At least revenues were up and I think the founder has a good idea about how to make the brand relevant again. I think most of what Starbucks used to sell was an "experience" and not just overpriced coffee. If you want value coffee you go to Dunkin Donuts or McDonalds and sit at a sticky table next to a screaming baby. If you want "coffee-house coffee" you go to Starbucks.
I think Schultz will bring back the value-added part of the Starbucks experience and get away from trying to compete on price. Things like introducing breakfast sandwiches (which tasted awful) distracted them from their main goal of serving a coffee-house experience with your overprice Latte.
Yet, last week, Schultz blamed the down economy for having to cut guidance for the quarter and warned investors to expect the blow.
Revenues for the second fiscal quarter totaled $5.3 billion, 15.2% year-over-year. United States revenues were up 5.5% to $1.9 billion. Total costs of sales increased 17.1% to $1.1 billion.
At least revenues were up and I think the founder has a good idea about how to make the brand relevant again. I think most of what Starbucks used to sell was an "experience" and not just overpriced coffee. If you want value coffee you go to Dunkin Donuts or McDonalds and sit at a sticky table next to a screaming baby. If you want "coffee-house coffee" you go to Starbucks.
I think Schultz will bring back the value-added part of the Starbucks experience and get away from trying to compete on price. Things like introducing breakfast sandwiches (which tasted awful) distracted them from their main goal of serving a coffee-house experience with your overprice Latte.
GOP Ignores Clinton Like an "unperson?"
I love how Jonathan Martin of Politico puts this little dig in his article about how the GOP is totally ignoring Hillary to go after Obama.
Clinton, it seems, has been erased from the picture, Soviet-style. Republicans mostly act like she doesn't exist--an unusual turn of events considering her run of big-state victories and the fact that not so long ago Republican campaign plans were predicated on the idea of Clinton as the Democratic nominee.
Yes, he just used the Stalinist era idea of the unperson and all of the baggage that that idea implies to describe a sound GOP strategy. When you are in a race against two people that hate each other you go after the front runner and let the trailing person fight for themselves. If you go after both parties then you allow them to join forces with the common notion that they both dislike you. It is just common sense.
In any case I am pretty sure that the GOP do not want Hillary to be erased from history like Nikolai Yezhov or Leon Trotsky were by Stalin. In fact it seems that liberals are the ones who want Hillary to get the "ice pick treatment" for holding out and damaging the party. I just hate how liberals always go from an repulsive idea like Stalin wiping out hundreds of thousands of people (and erasing them from history) and then lumping it into the same sentence as Republican election tactics. At least they didn't compare the GOP to the Nazis.
Clinton, it seems, has been erased from the picture, Soviet-style. Republicans mostly act like she doesn't exist--an unusual turn of events considering her run of big-state victories and the fact that not so long ago Republican campaign plans were predicated on the idea of Clinton as the Democratic nominee.
Yes, he just used the Stalinist era idea of the unperson and all of the baggage that that idea implies to describe a sound GOP strategy. When you are in a race against two people that hate each other you go after the front runner and let the trailing person fight for themselves. If you go after both parties then you allow them to join forces with the common notion that they both dislike you. It is just common sense.
In any case I am pretty sure that the GOP do not want Hillary to be erased from history like Nikolai Yezhov or Leon Trotsky were by Stalin. In fact it seems that liberals are the ones who want Hillary to get the "ice pick treatment" for holding out and damaging the party. I just hate how liberals always go from an repulsive idea like Stalin wiping out hundreds of thousands of people (and erasing them from history) and then lumping it into the same sentence as Republican election tactics. At least they didn't compare the GOP to the Nazis.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Now Mastercard Smashes Numbers
They beat by a full 59 cents a share. It looks like that international growth just like Visa is a major driver as well.
Outside the U.S., card usage grew at an even faster clip. Gross dollar volume abroad grew 30% to $352 billion, led by strong growth in Latin America, the Middle East, South Asia and Africa. Americans buying abroad led cross-border volumes up 23.6%, and MasterCard saw total processed transactions increase to $453 billion, up 155% on a local currency basis. Overall, the quarter showed the company doing a fantastic job at home and abroad, with strong results all around.
They seem to be executing even better job at revenue growth then the bigger Visa. The stock reflected this as well as Mastercard went up 13% and Visa went up 7%. In any case it seems that the recession and the credit crisis are not crimping the business of either company at all.
Outside the U.S., card usage grew at an even faster clip. Gross dollar volume abroad grew 30% to $352 billion, led by strong growth in Latin America, the Middle East, South Asia and Africa. Americans buying abroad led cross-border volumes up 23.6%, and MasterCard saw total processed transactions increase to $453 billion, up 155% on a local currency basis. Overall, the quarter showed the company doing a fantastic job at home and abroad, with strong results all around.
They seem to be executing even better job at revenue growth then the bigger Visa. The stock reflected this as well as Mastercard went up 13% and Visa went up 7%. In any case it seems that the recession and the credit crisis are not crimping the business of either company at all.
Wright Fires Another Salvo at Obama's Ship
I think Reverand Wright wants to see Obama actually lose the Presidency.
On Monday, Wright criticized the U.S. government as imperialist and stood by his suggestion that the United States invented the HIV virus as a means of genocide against minorities. "Based on this Tuskegee experiment and based on what has happened to Africans in this country, I believe our government is capable of doing anything," he said.
And perhaps even worse for Obama, Wright suggested that the church congregant secretly concurs.
"If Senator Obama did not say what he said, he would never get elected," Wright said. "Politicians say what they say and do what they do based on electability, based on sound bites, based on polls."
He not only repeated his conspiracy theories he also says that Obama deep down agrees with him and is hiding his true feelings to get elected. I'm sure there were lots of anti-Obama people that were feeling that but now his "spiritual mentor" is actually saying it.
Perhaps, Wright is trying to scuttle Obama's campaign just so he could continue to say "America will never elect a black man because we are racist." If Obama does win then his worldview will be shattered. So Wright is trying to hold onto his hate at all costs even if it destroys his parishioner. A black man in the highest job in the world challenges all of Wrights prejudices and deeply held beliefs about America.
On Monday, Wright criticized the U.S. government as imperialist and stood by his suggestion that the United States invented the HIV virus as a means of genocide against minorities. "Based on this Tuskegee experiment and based on what has happened to Africans in this country, I believe our government is capable of doing anything," he said.
And perhaps even worse for Obama, Wright suggested that the church congregant secretly concurs.
"If Senator Obama did not say what he said, he would never get elected," Wright said. "Politicians say what they say and do what they do based on electability, based on sound bites, based on polls."
He not only repeated his conspiracy theories he also says that Obama deep down agrees with him and is hiding his true feelings to get elected. I'm sure there were lots of anti-Obama people that were feeling that but now his "spiritual mentor" is actually saying it.
Perhaps, Wright is trying to scuttle Obama's campaign just so he could continue to say "America will never elect a black man because we are racist." If Obama does win then his worldview will be shattered. So Wright is trying to hold onto his hate at all costs even if it destroys his parishioner. A black man in the highest job in the world challenges all of Wrights prejudices and deeply held beliefs about America.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Visa Beats by 6 Cents: International Growth Looking Great
It seems that Visa may be hitting on all cylinders.
The company's profit rose 27.6% to $314 million, or 39 cents per share, during its fiscal second quarter from $246 million, or 93 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Revenue climbed 22% to $1.45 billion from $1.19 billion.
Adjusted earnings, which exclude special items, were 52 cents per share, far exceeding the average analyst estimate of 46 cents per share, according to Thomson Financial.
They cited international growth and the increased use of Debit cards as their growth drivers. I wonder if this growth will ramp up as the economy starts to recover?
The company's profit rose 27.6% to $314 million, or 39 cents per share, during its fiscal second quarter from $246 million, or 93 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Revenue climbed 22% to $1.45 billion from $1.19 billion.
Adjusted earnings, which exclude special items, were 52 cents per share, far exceeding the average analyst estimate of 46 cents per share, according to Thomson Financial.
They cited international growth and the increased use of Debit cards as their growth drivers. I wonder if this growth will ramp up as the economy starts to recover?
Friday, April 25, 2008
Spending on Social Status Different for Different Races
This is a very interesting article by the Economist on why people spend for status instead of for their own well-being.
Erik Hurst, Kerwin Charles, and Nick Roussanov found many people view their consumption as a signal to others. Further, black and Hispanic Americans are more likely, after controlling for permanent income, to spend a greater share of their wealth on conspicuous forms of consumption such as automobiles, clothes, and jewellery. To fund this spending, they often forgo more beneficial goods such as health care, education, and future consumption, i.e. saving. They found the conspicuous consumption motive can explain as much as 50% of the Black/white wealth gap, after controlling for income.
The interesting part is that richer people actually stop conspicuous consumption after a certain point because it actually makes them look poor. It also seems that when a minority group as a whole gets richer they move away from conspicuous consumption. The authors of this study also found that Hispanic communities that are affluent spend less on conspicuous consumption then poorer communities.
I wonder if average wealth in a community affects political affiliation of minority groups in that community as well? So would richer blacks and Hispanic communities turn to the GOP because they would be more interested in their capital gains taxes being raised, affording good health care, or the liberalization of colleges that they pay $50K+ a year for rather then being able to afford Gucci sweatpants or a diamond studded watch?
Erik Hurst, Kerwin Charles, and Nick Roussanov found many people view their consumption as a signal to others. Further, black and Hispanic Americans are more likely, after controlling for permanent income, to spend a greater share of their wealth on conspicuous forms of consumption such as automobiles, clothes, and jewellery. To fund this spending, they often forgo more beneficial goods such as health care, education, and future consumption, i.e. saving. They found the conspicuous consumption motive can explain as much as 50% of the Black/white wealth gap, after controlling for income.
The interesting part is that richer people actually stop conspicuous consumption after a certain point because it actually makes them look poor. It also seems that when a minority group as a whole gets richer they move away from conspicuous consumption. The authors of this study also found that Hispanic communities that are affluent spend less on conspicuous consumption then poorer communities.
I wonder if average wealth in a community affects political affiliation of minority groups in that community as well? So would richer blacks and Hispanic communities turn to the GOP because they would be more interested in their capital gains taxes being raised, affording good health care, or the liberalization of colleges that they pay $50K+ a year for rather then being able to afford Gucci sweatpants or a diamond studded watch?
Keith Olbermann wants Hillary Dead!
Now you know this election cycle is getting nasty when a lefty like Olbermann says stuff like this:
"Yeah, somebody who can take her into a room and only he comes out."
I agree with this blog that if someone said this about Obama then it would sould pretty bad. It might even lead that person to lose their on-air job. The hate that Olbermann has knows no boundaries.
"Yeah, somebody who can take her into a room and only he comes out."
I agree with this blog that if someone said this about Obama then it would sould pretty bad. It might even lead that person to lose their on-air job. The hate that Olbermann has knows no boundaries.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Rice Prices up 300%
It seems like it is a self-fulfilling shortage caused by speculators. Just like oil we have slack demand but supply is stopped even by a few 100K barrels for a few days and the price goes to an all-time high. In rice we have panic buying and hoarding by both the individual and governments and that is what is driving the price strait up.
After this week's over five percent jump rice prices stand nearly three times higher than the start of the year. With no sign of the rally relenting, as traders expect more buyers to come into the market, government anxiety about social unrest from the soaring cost of Asia's staple will deepen.
The price goes up due to speculation. Then Asian governments fearing rioting overreact and put curbs on exports and start hoarding their rice. Then we end up having record prices. It is all a self-fulfilling prophecy.
After this week's over five percent jump rice prices stand nearly three times higher than the start of the year. With no sign of the rally relenting, as traders expect more buyers to come into the market, government anxiety about social unrest from the soaring cost of Asia's staple will deepen.
The price goes up due to speculation. Then Asian governments fearing rioting overreact and put curbs on exports and start hoarding their rice. Then we end up having record prices. It is all a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Microsoft Talks Tough on the Yahoo Deal
I guess $31 is now MSFTs final offer.
"As outlined in our recent letter to the Yahoo board, unless we made progress with Yahoo towards an agreement by this weekend, we will reconsider our alternatives," Liddell said.
"These alternatives clearly include taking an offer to Yahoo shareholders or to withdraw our proposal and focus on other opportunities," either from internally generated growth or growth through acquisitions, the Microsoft executive said.
If MSFT pulls their offer we could see Yahoo go back into the $20-$19 range I would think.
"As outlined in our recent letter to the Yahoo board, unless we made progress with Yahoo towards an agreement by this weekend, we will reconsider our alternatives," Liddell said.
"These alternatives clearly include taking an offer to Yahoo shareholders or to withdraw our proposal and focus on other opportunities," either from internally generated growth or growth through acquisitions, the Microsoft executive said.
If MSFT pulls their offer we could see Yahoo go back into the $20-$19 range I would think.
It Seems the Israelis Bombed a Syrian Reactor
Ah now we know why Israeli Jets were inside of Syrian Airspace on Sept. 6. I love how the Syrians spun it to make it look like their aircraft caught the wayward Israeli warplanes who dropped their bombs in fear. Too bad the Syrians didn't mention what they dropped their bombs on. I think this will happen again as Iran gets closer to the bomb.
The reactor was destroyed by Israel in a September 6 air strike that was initially shrouded in secrecy out of what the Bush administration said was fear that public discussion could prompt Syria, which has long supported militant Palestinian groups, to retaliate.
The reactor was destroyed by Israel in a September 6 air strike that was initially shrouded in secrecy out of what the Bush administration said was fear that public discussion could prompt Syria, which has long supported militant Palestinian groups, to retaliate.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Hillary Loads up the Truck with Campaign Moolah
After her 10% win in Pennsylvania (Bah, I was off by 2%) the Democratic Money Pipe has opened up for her again. She still trails Obama's in the money race by a large number.
Clinton said donors had contributed more than $3 million to her candidacy in the hours since her Pennsylvania victory, some of it from thousands of new donors. Her campaign said she was on track for raising $10 million in the first 24 hours after her victory.
Financial reports on file with the Federal Election Commission underscored her need. Obama showed more than $40 million in cash on hand as of April 1, while her debts of $10 million exceeded her cash of just over $9 million.
Clinton said donors had contributed more than $3 million to her candidacy in the hours since her Pennsylvania victory, some of it from thousands of new donors. Her campaign said she was on track for raising $10 million in the first 24 hours after her victory.
Financial reports on file with the Federal Election Commission underscored her need. Obama showed more than $40 million in cash on hand as of April 1, while her debts of $10 million exceeded her cash of just over $9 million.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Yahoo is Done For!
There is no way they are going to fend off Microsoft now since their numbers were only marginally better.
Net income rose to $542 million, or 37 cents a share, from $1.2 billion, or 10 cents, in the corresponding period a year earlier. On the continuing-operations basis used by analysts, however, earnings for the latest period were 11 cents a share, 2 cents above the consensus estimate reported by Thomson Reuters.
Sales excluding traffic-acquisition costs were $1.4 billion, up 14% from $1.2 billion during the year-ago period. Analysts had expected sales of $1.3 billion.
So basically it was a 2 cent beat and a 14% revenue bump from last year. These are not the earth shattering numbers that they needed to get Microsoft to sweeten their deal. So it looks like it will be a proxy fight for $31 a share and Microsoft will win. I wonder how well a Microhoo (I like Yahoosoft but that won't happen) will actually compete with Google?
Net income rose to $542 million, or 37 cents a share, from $1.2 billion, or 10 cents, in the corresponding period a year earlier. On the continuing-operations basis used by analysts, however, earnings for the latest period were 11 cents a share, 2 cents above the consensus estimate reported by Thomson Reuters.
Sales excluding traffic-acquisition costs were $1.4 billion, up 14% from $1.2 billion during the year-ago period. Analysts had expected sales of $1.3 billion.
So basically it was a 2 cent beat and a 14% revenue bump from last year. These are not the earth shattering numbers that they needed to get Microsoft to sweeten their deal. So it looks like it will be a proxy fight for $31 a share and Microsoft will win. I wonder how well a Microhoo (I like Yahoosoft but that won't happen) will actually compete with Google?
My Prediciton for the Penn Primary
I think Hillary wins it by 8%. She will spin it as a great victory and Obama will shrug and go on to the next primary. I also think things get alot dirtier as we approach June and the Clinton people get more desparate.
Hillary Would "Obliterate" Iran if She's Boss
That is after the Iranians launched a first strike on Israel of course.
"I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attack Iran (if it attacks Israel)," Clinton said in an interview on ABC's "Good Morning America."
"In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them," she said.
Hillary would actually lay down the goon hand to bad millions of Jews would already be dead. It seems that detering Iran from getting the bomb, by stick or by carrot, is not something she is going to do if she is President. It seems her policy is detente-by-bombing-into-the-Stone-age just like we had in the Cold War. Well, at least one good thing came out of that sniper fire she took in Kosovo all those years ago. It has made her "born again hard."
"I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attack Iran (if it attacks Israel)," Clinton said in an interview on ABC's "Good Morning America."
"In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them," she said.
Hillary would actually lay down the goon hand to bad millions of Jews would already be dead. It seems that detering Iran from getting the bomb, by stick or by carrot, is not something she is going to do if she is President. It seems her policy is detente-by-bombing-into-the-Stone-age just like we had in the Cold War. Well, at least one good thing came out of that sniper fire she took in Kosovo all those years ago. It has made her "born again hard."
Monday, April 21, 2008
Leslie Bennetts is one Hate Filled Woman
I agree with Dr. Helen when she says that Leslie Bennetts is mean bastard and that her husband Jeremy is a Saint to put up with a monster like her.
And yet everyone acts as if Jeremy deserves some kind of medal just for making a run to the supermarket. No one has ever suggested that I’m a heroine for doing the things every mother is expected to do. I admit that my husband helps out more than many men, but here’s another news flash: It isn’t because he’s such a fabulously enlightened being. Left to his own devices, he would doubtless park himself in front of the TV like some sitcom male-chauvinist couch potato while I did all the work. The reason Jeremy “helps” as much as he does (an offensive terminology that itself suggests who’s really being held responsible) is simple: He doesn’t have a choice.
I have never read such a hate filled rant that is directed toward someone she supposedly "loves" enough to marry. Also she really lays into doing everyday chores and parenting tasks (scut work she calls it) like they are far beneath someone like her. Why doesn't she just spring for a house cleaning service and hire a nanny so she doesn't need to engage in a life-or-death power struggle over chores. She then doesn't have to lower herself to holiday cooking and remembering to buy mosquito netting for her hated son. This part takes the cake though:
Unfortunately, all too many women are still teaching their children that “woman is the nigger of the world,” as John Lennon and Yoko Ono put it so memorably in a song lyric years ago. And what too many fathers teach their sons and daughters is that men can get away with dumping the scut work on their wives, and that women will grit their teeth and put up with it.
I was just shocked to see her put a racial epithet (via a quote) into an article about sharing chores. These are the mundane tasks of everyday life and not 1000 years of oppression and misery. If you think she has it bad be a housewife in Taliban-era Afghanistan. That is a *real* slave.
I really think that a hateful shrew like this should not have married at all. She would have been better off lording it over her cleaning staff and berating random men then subjecting some poor man to her venomous presence.
And yet everyone acts as if Jeremy deserves some kind of medal just for making a run to the supermarket. No one has ever suggested that I’m a heroine for doing the things every mother is expected to do. I admit that my husband helps out more than many men, but here’s another news flash: It isn’t because he’s such a fabulously enlightened being. Left to his own devices, he would doubtless park himself in front of the TV like some sitcom male-chauvinist couch potato while I did all the work. The reason Jeremy “helps” as much as he does (an offensive terminology that itself suggests who’s really being held responsible) is simple: He doesn’t have a choice.
I have never read such a hate filled rant that is directed toward someone she supposedly "loves" enough to marry. Also she really lays into doing everyday chores and parenting tasks (scut work she calls it) like they are far beneath someone like her. Why doesn't she just spring for a house cleaning service and hire a nanny so she doesn't need to engage in a life-or-death power struggle over chores. She then doesn't have to lower herself to holiday cooking and remembering to buy mosquito netting for her hated son. This part takes the cake though:
Unfortunately, all too many women are still teaching their children that “woman is the nigger of the world,” as John Lennon and Yoko Ono put it so memorably in a song lyric years ago. And what too many fathers teach their sons and daughters is that men can get away with dumping the scut work on their wives, and that women will grit their teeth and put up with it.
I was just shocked to see her put a racial epithet (via a quote) into an article about sharing chores. These are the mundane tasks of everyday life and not 1000 years of oppression and misery. If you think she has it bad be a housewife in Taliban-era Afghanistan. That is a *real* slave.
I really think that a hateful shrew like this should not have married at all. She would have been better off lording it over her cleaning staff and berating random men then subjecting some poor man to her venomous presence.
Teens Feeling the Recession Pinch
They seem to be spending less and going for the sales alot more then they did in the past.
But new trends show that teens are going frugal, shopping at thrift stores, and cutting back on spending in general. Not only are they getting less money from their parents, but they're also earning less money, since teen hiring has dropped by 5% since March 2007. Some are saying this could be the worst teen retail slump in 17 years, with high gas and food prices finally triggering teens to go retro and look for sales.
This trend is good for stocks like Aeropostale which is known as the sale priced teen retailer. This article points out that their 2 for $20 sales that seem to be pushing their same-store sale numbers up. They also seem like pretty decent items for the most part and aren't really cheapy looking at all.
Also Buckle seems unaffeced because they sell to higher end teens who don't slow down their shopping patterns due to the high cost of gas and food prices. Looking at their sites it seems that Aeropostale has some pretty decent stuff at very reasonable prices. Also Buckle looks like a more trendy place filled with more hipster styles.
The funny thing is that many of their polo shirts which I use for work are somewhat reasonably priced at $40 while Abercrombie is selling their polo's for about $50 or so. Buckle also has a number of shirts that are from different companies like Quicksilver, Billabong, Hurley etc. that are not the Buckle brand as well. It seems like a good idea to provide floor space to sell a product that another company has to shoulder the costs of creating. I guess the high end and the low end are the only decent growth areas in retailing and teen retailers are no different.
But new trends show that teens are going frugal, shopping at thrift stores, and cutting back on spending in general. Not only are they getting less money from their parents, but they're also earning less money, since teen hiring has dropped by 5% since March 2007. Some are saying this could be the worst teen retail slump in 17 years, with high gas and food prices finally triggering teens to go retro and look for sales.
This trend is good for stocks like Aeropostale which is known as the sale priced teen retailer. This article points out that their 2 for $20 sales that seem to be pushing their same-store sale numbers up. They also seem like pretty decent items for the most part and aren't really cheapy looking at all.
Also Buckle seems unaffeced because they sell to higher end teens who don't slow down their shopping patterns due to the high cost of gas and food prices. Looking at their sites it seems that Aeropostale has some pretty decent stuff at very reasonable prices. Also Buckle looks like a more trendy place filled with more hipster styles.
The funny thing is that many of their polo shirts which I use for work are somewhat reasonably priced at $40 while Abercrombie is selling their polo's for about $50 or so. Buckle also has a number of shirts that are from different companies like Quicksilver, Billabong, Hurley etc. that are not the Buckle brand as well. It seems like a good idea to provide floor space to sell a product that another company has to shoulder the costs of creating. I guess the high end and the low end are the only decent growth areas in retailing and teen retailers are no different.
Hillary Looks Strangely Regal in this Picture
Hmm, this is a very interesting picture. It kind of makes her look, dare I say it, presidential. I think that colorful scarf is what does it. Knowing Hillary's propensity for lying it was probably Photo Shopped to take out the Hammer and Sickle in the background.
The 20 Man Battle Royal at the Church of the Holy Sepulcher
People went ape at the Church of the Holy Sepulcher on Sunday.
It erupted when Armenian clergy kicked out a Greek priest from their midst, pushed him to the ground and kicked him, according to witnesses.
When police intervened, some worshippers hit them with the palm fronds they were holding for the religious holiday. The Eastern Orthodox churches, including the Armenians and Greek Orthodox, follow a different calendar from Western Christians and celebrate Easter next Sunday.
What would Jesus do? He probably wouldn't "stomp a mudhole in a guy" if he got into the wrong part of the Church of the Holy Sepulcher. Also hammering a police officer with a blessed palm frond also seems like something anti-Christian as well. I think these Armenian Priests should be given some kind of Holy Demerit or something.
It erupted when Armenian clergy kicked out a Greek priest from their midst, pushed him to the ground and kicked him, according to witnesses.
When police intervened, some worshippers hit them with the palm fronds they were holding for the religious holiday. The Eastern Orthodox churches, including the Armenians and Greek Orthodox, follow a different calendar from Western Christians and celebrate Easter next Sunday.
What would Jesus do? He probably wouldn't "stomp a mudhole in a guy" if he got into the wrong part of the Church of the Holy Sepulcher. Also hammering a police officer with a blessed palm frond also seems like something anti-Christian as well. I think these Armenian Priests should be given some kind of Holy Demerit or something.
Friday, April 18, 2008
Google Blows Out the Numbers: comScore Looks Stupid
Just as I suspected Google is hitting on all cylinders and they strait-up smashed the numbers.
In a conference call for investors, Schmidt said that Google's search, ads, and apps strategy has had a transformative effect on the company's business.
"We're showing fewer but much better ads, ... and that's a key part of the Google success story," Schmidt said.
Schmidt also took a moment to dismiss recent reports that Google's paid click growth was flagging. "Paid click growth is much higher than has been speculated by third parties," he said.
I think comScore "paid-click data" should never again be used in the future to gauge Google's quarterly numbers. comScore said that search was supposedly up only 2% from last year and down 9% from Q4 '07. Google, however, said that their paid-clicks showed a 20% increase from last year and a 4% gain from last quarter. That is a *huge* difference. I could understand how analysts took comScores numbers and tried to make a case that ad spending was off due to a recession. I did not agree with these analysts but they did make a compelling case.
The above link has a bunch of back-peddling and ass-covering by comScore but I am going to side with Google on this matter. Google knows exactly which clicks get turned into cash. They also seemed to pull another head fake on Wall Street. ComScore, however, strait-up blew it when they didn't clarify their numbers at the same time as when they released them. From the look of things they were just dead wrong and should lose any further "tea-leaf status" when it comes to their Google so-called "paid-click" predictions.
In a conference call for investors, Schmidt said that Google's search, ads, and apps strategy has had a transformative effect on the company's business.
"We're showing fewer but much better ads, ... and that's a key part of the Google success story," Schmidt said.
Schmidt also took a moment to dismiss recent reports that Google's paid click growth was flagging. "Paid click growth is much higher than has been speculated by third parties," he said.
I think comScore "paid-click data" should never again be used in the future to gauge Google's quarterly numbers. comScore said that search was supposedly up only 2% from last year and down 9% from Q4 '07. Google, however, said that their paid-clicks showed a 20% increase from last year and a 4% gain from last quarter. That is a *huge* difference. I could understand how analysts took comScores numbers and tried to make a case that ad spending was off due to a recession. I did not agree with these analysts but they did make a compelling case.
The above link has a bunch of back-peddling and ass-covering by comScore but I am going to side with Google on this matter. Google knows exactly which clicks get turned into cash. They also seemed to pull another head fake on Wall Street. ComScore, however, strait-up blew it when they didn't clarify their numbers at the same time as when they released them. From the look of things they were just dead wrong and should lose any further "tea-leaf status" when it comes to their Google so-called "paid-click" predictions.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
United Airlines Kicks an Orthodox Jew off the Plane for Praying
I guess it is time to boycott United Airlines because this has to be one of the more egregious acts of intolerance I have seen in a while.
When flight attendants urged the man, who was carrying a religious book, to take his seat, he ignored them, Brafman said. Two friends, who were seated, tried to tell the attendants that the man couldn't stop until his prayers were over in about 2 minutes, he said.
"He doesn't respond to them, but his friends explain that once you start praying you can't stop," said Brafman, who was seated three rows away.
When the man finally stopped praying, he explained that he couldn't interrupt his religious ritual and wasn't trying to be rude. But the attendants summoned a guard to remove him, said Brafman, a writer who had been visiting New York to talk to publishers.
He had to ignore them because an Orthodox Jew that starts praying is not supposed to stop until he is done. He even explained the situation after he was done but the stiff-necked flight attendants had a guard remove him anyway. They couldn't show the guy even a little bit of tolerance and compassion and had to lay the smack-down. I think they should make these flight attendants take a "religions of the world" class or something so they can recognize what is happening.
When flight attendants urged the man, who was carrying a religious book, to take his seat, he ignored them, Brafman said. Two friends, who were seated, tried to tell the attendants that the man couldn't stop until his prayers were over in about 2 minutes, he said.
"He doesn't respond to them, but his friends explain that once you start praying you can't stop," said Brafman, who was seated three rows away.
When the man finally stopped praying, he explained that he couldn't interrupt his religious ritual and wasn't trying to be rude. But the attendants summoned a guard to remove him, said Brafman, a writer who had been visiting New York to talk to publishers.
He had to ignore them because an Orthodox Jew that starts praying is not supposed to stop until he is done. He even explained the situation after he was done but the stiff-necked flight attendants had a guard remove him anyway. They couldn't show the guy even a little bit of tolerance and compassion and had to lay the smack-down. I think they should make these flight attendants take a "religions of the world" class or something so they can recognize what is happening.
No Recession in Video Game Sales
They are still selling like crazy.
The video games industry showed no signs of a slowdown as the industry grew a whopping 57% in March from the same period a year ago to reach $1.7 billion in sales of game devices, software and accessories.
It seems that Nintendo still leades the pack in game systems sold. They seem to be trouncing the PS3 and the 360 by a factor of almost 3 to 1 now.
Nintendo sold 698,000 Wiis in March (up from 432,000 in Feb.), compared to Sony's 257,000 PS3s (down from 280,800 PS3s), while Microsoft sold 262,000 Xbox 360s (better than 254,600 in Feb.)
The video games industry showed no signs of a slowdown as the industry grew a whopping 57% in March from the same period a year ago to reach $1.7 billion in sales of game devices, software and accessories.
It seems that Nintendo still leades the pack in game systems sold. They seem to be trouncing the PS3 and the 360 by a factor of almost 3 to 1 now.
Nintendo sold 698,000 Wiis in March (up from 432,000 in Feb.), compared to Sony's 257,000 PS3s (down from 280,800 PS3s), while Microsoft sold 262,000 Xbox 360s (better than 254,600 in Feb.)
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Dell Makes a Comeback
It seems that things are looking up for Dell now that they are dropping the extra bucks for shipping model and are selling in retail stores. I think many computer buyers don't care too much about customizing their PCs. They instead buy based on what they will use it for. So a person buying a "Media Center PC" would expect it to come with a bigger hard drive, DVD,
Media Center Edition of Windows, Remote Control etc. One interesting thing that came from this article is this:
Overall, PC shipments in the first quarter increased 12.3% compared with the first quarter of 2007, according to Gartner, despite fears that souring economic conditions might pinch PC sales.
"Home mobile PC growth continued to drive U.S. PC growth," said Gartner analyst Mika Kitagawa. "Despite declining consumer confidence, U.S. consumers did not put off mobile PC purchases as evidenced by solid mobile growth during the first quarter."
That sales growth was stimulated in party by aggressive price cuts, Kitagawa added.
Strong demand for laptop PCs resulted in strong than expected growth in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region as well as in the Asia Pacific region.
I thought growth would slow but 12.3% is pretty impressive. In fact this growth has surpassed last years 8.9% Worldwide PC shipments in the first quarter of 2007. The so-called worst recession since WWII seems to have not crimped PC demand just yet.
Media Center Edition of Windows, Remote Control etc. One interesting thing that came from this article is this:
Overall, PC shipments in the first quarter increased 12.3% compared with the first quarter of 2007, according to Gartner, despite fears that souring economic conditions might pinch PC sales.
"Home mobile PC growth continued to drive U.S. PC growth," said Gartner analyst Mika Kitagawa. "Despite declining consumer confidence, U.S. consumers did not put off mobile PC purchases as evidenced by solid mobile growth during the first quarter."
That sales growth was stimulated in party by aggressive price cuts, Kitagawa added.
Strong demand for laptop PCs resulted in strong than expected growth in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region as well as in the Asia Pacific region.
I thought growth would slow but 12.3% is pretty impressive. In fact this growth has surpassed last years 8.9% Worldwide PC shipments in the first quarter of 2007. The so-called worst recession since WWII seems to have not crimped PC demand just yet.
Crude Hits New High but API and EIA Numbers are Way Off
Now this is an interesting thing to ponder about crude oil supplies.
In a report released Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude inventories fell unexpectedly, down 2.3 million barrels to 313.7 million barrels in the week ended April 11. Analysts surveyed by energy information provider Platts expected an increase of 1.5 million barrels.
That seems all well and good for a bullish case for oil but this tidbit of knowledge has got me thinking.
Separately, the American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels to 317.9 million barrels in the week ending April 11. Distillate stocks fell by 939,000 barrels to 111.9 million barrels in the same period, while gasoline stocks dropped by 2.4 million barrels to 216.8 million barrels. The API, an association of the U.S. oil and natural gas industry, calculates inventories based on different criteria
That is a 4.8 million barrel discrepancy! How can one report say that inventories fell and the other report said they rose? The API report says that demand fell 1.4% and it was the third year of a decline in demand for oil from the US. Also that 85.2% gasoline utilization has been part of the high gas prices problem. Refineries seem to always have problems and it keeps driving up the gas prices.
Also looking at the EIA numbers you can see that the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) increased by 641,000 barrels. Why this amount doesn't stay the same or drop with $115 a barrel oil I have no idea. You figure they should keep this amount the same when oil prices are high or sell off some barrels to make a little cash. After looking at the numbers I'm still not sure why the API and the EIA numbers are so far off. All I know is demand has fallen so there is not as much oil imported. That should make the case for lower prices and not higher ones.
In a report released Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude inventories fell unexpectedly, down 2.3 million barrels to 313.7 million barrels in the week ended April 11. Analysts surveyed by energy information provider Platts expected an increase of 1.5 million barrels.
That seems all well and good for a bullish case for oil but this tidbit of knowledge has got me thinking.
Separately, the American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels to 317.9 million barrels in the week ending April 11. Distillate stocks fell by 939,000 barrels to 111.9 million barrels in the same period, while gasoline stocks dropped by 2.4 million barrels to 216.8 million barrels. The API, an association of the U.S. oil and natural gas industry, calculates inventories based on different criteria
That is a 4.8 million barrel discrepancy! How can one report say that inventories fell and the other report said they rose? The API report says that demand fell 1.4% and it was the third year of a decline in demand for oil from the US. Also that 85.2% gasoline utilization has been part of the high gas prices problem. Refineries seem to always have problems and it keeps driving up the gas prices.
Also looking at the EIA numbers you can see that the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) increased by 641,000 barrels. Why this amount doesn't stay the same or drop with $115 a barrel oil I have no idea. You figure they should keep this amount the same when oil prices are high or sell off some barrels to make a little cash. After looking at the numbers I'm still not sure why the API and the EIA numbers are so far off. All I know is demand has fallen so there is not as much oil imported. That should make the case for lower prices and not higher ones.
New X-Files Movie a stand alone
It seems the new X-Files movie which will be called The X-Files: I Want to Believe will be coming out July 25. It looks like they are going to make it a one-off story and it will have nothing to do with the Alien Hybrids, Black Oil, Smoking Man etc. They also seem to have pulled an X-Files to keep the script a secret as well.
"We went to almost comical lengths to keep the story a secret," Carter said. "That included allowing only the key crew members to read the script, and they had to read it in a room that had video cameras trained on them. It was a new experience."
"We went to almost comical lengths to keep the story a secret," Carter said. "That included allowing only the key crew members to read the script, and they had to read it in a room that had video cameras trained on them. It was a new experience."
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Ars Technica Likes the Blockbuster/Circuit City Buyout
Hmm, it seems that they are on board this strangest of buyouts.
From a consumer's point of view, we'd get movies and video games for sale or rent right next to a wide selection of the gadgets we'd need for playing them, followed by snacks and finger foods by the checkout counter. It's all about convenience and one-stop shopping, and I really think the concept could work. Convenience is still king, right?
I still have to disagree though. Most of the gadgets you need for playing the rented and bought DVDs/games are not quick one-off purchases. A Blue-Ray player is a good $400 and a HDTV is like $1000 or more. These aren't quicky impulse purchases like finger food or DVDs. They are something that a consumer puts a decent amount of thought into buying.
I could see a person perhaps buying a Blue-Ray player and then renting a few movies to watch on it at the same time. But would it be worth the mammoth amount of expense it would take to meld their two inventory systems together? It would give Blockbuster an excuse to close hundreds of stores by moving them into existing Circuit City's. That could save some money in the short term.
I'm also not sure about all this talk of the media convergence where the content and the device are connected somehow. I can only see something like this happening if Blockbuster sells DVRs or DVD players out of their Circuit City's preloaded with a video on demand service built into the device. It would kind of be like a TiVo preloaded with a connection to the Blockbuster Video on Demand Store.
A Blockbuster branded DVR would indeed be game changer if they could deliver HD movies quickly and easily to the home in some other way then via snail mail or by picking them up at the physical store. Maybe BlockBuster could create a version of BitTorrent optimized for downloading HD content which works by storing pieces of those giant files on 1000s of individual DVR devices installed into peoples homes.
So the service would work by having you pay a monthly fee of like $19.95 and then you buy the hardware for like $300 and hook it up to your broadband connection and away you go. You then would have all the HD content that you could watch on an HD-TV that you bought at Circuit City. This TV would be connected to a Blockbuster branded DVR that uses this BlockBuster BitTorrent Service. If they pull that off then you might be looking at the next Apple. Or the merged companies could fail miserably and go bankrupt. Which would make Netflix the last service standing.
From a consumer's point of view, we'd get movies and video games for sale or rent right next to a wide selection of the gadgets we'd need for playing them, followed by snacks and finger foods by the checkout counter. It's all about convenience and one-stop shopping, and I really think the concept could work. Convenience is still king, right?
I still have to disagree though. Most of the gadgets you need for playing the rented and bought DVDs/games are not quick one-off purchases. A Blue-Ray player is a good $400 and a HDTV is like $1000 or more. These aren't quicky impulse purchases like finger food or DVDs. They are something that a consumer puts a decent amount of thought into buying.
I could see a person perhaps buying a Blue-Ray player and then renting a few movies to watch on it at the same time. But would it be worth the mammoth amount of expense it would take to meld their two inventory systems together? It would give Blockbuster an excuse to close hundreds of stores by moving them into existing Circuit City's. That could save some money in the short term.
I'm also not sure about all this talk of the media convergence where the content and the device are connected somehow. I can only see something like this happening if Blockbuster sells DVRs or DVD players out of their Circuit City's preloaded with a video on demand service built into the device. It would kind of be like a TiVo preloaded with a connection to the Blockbuster Video on Demand Store.
A Blockbuster branded DVR would indeed be game changer if they could deliver HD movies quickly and easily to the home in some other way then via snail mail or by picking them up at the physical store. Maybe BlockBuster could create a version of BitTorrent optimized for downloading HD content which works by storing pieces of those giant files on 1000s of individual DVR devices installed into peoples homes.
So the service would work by having you pay a monthly fee of like $19.95 and then you buy the hardware for like $300 and hook it up to your broadband connection and away you go. You then would have all the HD content that you could watch on an HD-TV that you bought at Circuit City. This TV would be connected to a Blockbuster branded DVR that uses this BlockBuster BitTorrent Service. If they pull that off then you might be looking at the next Apple. Or the merged companies could fail miserably and go bankrupt. Which would make Netflix the last service standing.
Oil at $114: Time to Short Again?
I love it when oil jumps to record highs on flimsy "supply disruptions."
The oil report from the IEA — the Paris-based energy watchdog for industrialized countries — said Russia, the world's biggest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, averaged 10 million barrels per day from January through March, down 1 percent from 2007. That is the first time production has failed to exceed previous-year figures since 1998.
Artyom Konchin, an analyst with Russian investment bank Aton Capital, attributed Russia's oil supply lull to high taxes and insufficient reinvestment into infrastructure.
"It's not that we don't have enough oil," he said. "We just don't have enough capital going into developing the fields."
This news is great for oil infrastructure companies that the Russians will approach to spend some of their vast oil wealth to fix up their fields. So National Oilwell, Rowan, Schlumberger etc. its time to line up with your hand out for some of that Russian wealth.
It is true that the Russians are not running out of oil anytime soon. The price action can only be sustained if the Russians took another look at their oil supply and said that it was lower then what it had been previously. Since they didn't do that we have price raises backed with flimsy support again.
The oil report from the IEA — the Paris-based energy watchdog for industrialized countries — said Russia, the world's biggest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, averaged 10 million barrels per day from January through March, down 1 percent from 2007. That is the first time production has failed to exceed previous-year figures since 1998.
Artyom Konchin, an analyst with Russian investment bank Aton Capital, attributed Russia's oil supply lull to high taxes and insufficient reinvestment into infrastructure.
"It's not that we don't have enough oil," he said. "We just don't have enough capital going into developing the fields."
This news is great for oil infrastructure companies that the Russians will approach to spend some of their vast oil wealth to fix up their fields. So National Oilwell, Rowan, Schlumberger etc. its time to line up with your hand out for some of that Russian wealth.
It is true that the Russians are not running out of oil anytime soon. The price action can only be sustained if the Russians took another look at their oil supply and said that it was lower then what it had been previously. Since they didn't do that we have price raises backed with flimsy support again.
McCain Tax Relief Idea
This seems like some interesting stuff that he is proposing. He is also thinking about creating a gas tax holiday and stopping purchases into the strategic oil reserve as well.
Raise the tax exemption for each dependent child from $3,500 to $7,000. Aides estimated it would cost $65 billion over one year to double the tax exemption, but argued that McCain would offset such expenses by cutting federal spending.
_Require more affluent people — couples making more than $164,000 — enrolled in Medicare to pay a higher premium for their prescription drugs than less-wealthy people.
_Offer people the option of choosing a simpler tax system with two tax rates and a standard deduction instead of sticking with the current system.
_Suspend for one year all increases in discretionary spending for agencies other than those that cover the military and veterans while launching an expansive review of the effectiveness of federal programs. Aides estimated a one-year freeze would save $15 billion.
I guess the tax exemption for children is a good idea since it puts more money in the pocket of parents. I like the Medicare premium raises for wealthy people. The simpler tax system proposal is light-years better then the Obama "give us your personal documents and we'll do your taxes for you" crappy idea. I also like the spending freeze and effectiveness review idea as well. You have to see the pork before you can cut it.
Of course the Democratic camp is like a parrot that squakes the same thing over and over:
Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said McCain's proposals offer "no change from George Bush's failed policies by going full speed ahead with fiscally irresponsible tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans." Clinton policy director Neera Tanden called it "a George Bush-redux of corporate windfalls and tax cuts for the wealthy that will bankrupt our government and leave working families with the bill."
Braaak! Tax Cuts for the Wealthy, Braaak! Tax Cuts for the Wealthy. Giving Americans who are hurting financially some of their money back is not something the Dems should snub.
Raise the tax exemption for each dependent child from $3,500 to $7,000. Aides estimated it would cost $65 billion over one year to double the tax exemption, but argued that McCain would offset such expenses by cutting federal spending.
_Require more affluent people — couples making more than $164,000 — enrolled in Medicare to pay a higher premium for their prescription drugs than less-wealthy people.
_Offer people the option of choosing a simpler tax system with two tax rates and a standard deduction instead of sticking with the current system.
_Suspend for one year all increases in discretionary spending for agencies other than those that cover the military and veterans while launching an expansive review of the effectiveness of federal programs. Aides estimated a one-year freeze would save $15 billion.
I guess the tax exemption for children is a good idea since it puts more money in the pocket of parents. I like the Medicare premium raises for wealthy people. The simpler tax system proposal is light-years better then the Obama "give us your personal documents and we'll do your taxes for you" crappy idea. I also like the spending freeze and effectiveness review idea as well. You have to see the pork before you can cut it.
Of course the Democratic camp is like a parrot that squakes the same thing over and over:
Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said McCain's proposals offer "no change from George Bush's failed policies by going full speed ahead with fiscally irresponsible tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans." Clinton policy director Neera Tanden called it "a George Bush-redux of corporate windfalls and tax cuts for the wealthy that will bankrupt our government and leave working families with the bill."
Braaak! Tax Cuts for the Wealthy, Braaak! Tax Cuts for the Wealthy. Giving Americans who are hurting financially some of their money back is not something the Dems should snub.
Monday, April 14, 2008
Blockbuster Tried to Buyout Circuit City?
Now this would be an interesting but crazy sounding fit.
That brings me to Monday's rather stunning news that Blockbuster, the giant video chain that's seen better days, is trying to buy Circuit City, the giant consumer electronics retail chain that's also seen better days. The offer, which was made in February and is just now becoming public, is worth $6 to $8 per share--between $1 billion and $1.3 billion total. It's about a 54 percent premium above Circuit City's value before the news broke.
When I first read the news I thought it was Best Buy trying to buy Circuit City and dominate the electronics retailing landscape. Then I read closer and saw that it was Blockbuster instead and I could hardly believe it. It would be just like if Merck freaked out and bought out Continental Airlines just to "try something new."
However it would be an interesting example of a content provider trying to buy out a company that sells the gear to watch the content on. Like trying to form a cheapy Apple. Maybe Circuit Cities would turn into a hybrid store where you can rent videos on one floor and buy computer stuff, TVs, and DVDs on another. The article above throws water on this hybrid-thing competing with the Apple Stores.
I guess selling the Blue-Ray Player and renting out the the Blue-Ray DVDs at the same place is what Blockbuster was going for. Hmm, maybe Blockbuster was thinking about going into the Rent-To-Own type of Business where they would rent DVDs, video games, and even the DVD player and HD-TV at a high margin interest rates. In any case I think Blockbuster management should stick to turning the company around and ignore any further crazy merger mania.
That brings me to Monday's rather stunning news that Blockbuster, the giant video chain that's seen better days, is trying to buy Circuit City, the giant consumer electronics retail chain that's also seen better days. The offer, which was made in February and is just now becoming public, is worth $6 to $8 per share--between $1 billion and $1.3 billion total. It's about a 54 percent premium above Circuit City's value before the news broke.
When I first read the news I thought it was Best Buy trying to buy Circuit City and dominate the electronics retailing landscape. Then I read closer and saw that it was Blockbuster instead and I could hardly believe it. It would be just like if Merck freaked out and bought out Continental Airlines just to "try something new."
However it would be an interesting example of a content provider trying to buy out a company that sells the gear to watch the content on. Like trying to form a cheapy Apple. Maybe Circuit Cities would turn into a hybrid store where you can rent videos on one floor and buy computer stuff, TVs, and DVDs on another. The article above throws water on this hybrid-thing competing with the Apple Stores.
I guess selling the Blue-Ray Player and renting out the the Blue-Ray DVDs at the same place is what Blockbuster was going for. Hmm, maybe Blockbuster was thinking about going into the Rent-To-Own type of Business where they would rent DVDs, video games, and even the DVD player and HD-TV at a high margin interest rates. In any case I think Blockbuster management should stick to turning the company around and ignore any further crazy merger mania.
Obama "Clings" To Liberal Condescention
At least it seems so in his latest gaffe.
“You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them,” Obama said.
“And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”
I think rural Pennsylvanians "cling" to religion and guns because they enjoy going to church and going hunting. 25 years of economic distress is not pushing them into churches and making them rush to Wal-Mart to buy rifles. It is just what this particular group of Americans like to do with their spare time.
I guess Obama's San Fransisco liberal big-wig audience needs to be be given a reason why these people go and "worship invisible men the sky" and "love their guns." After all these things are bad to the "enlightened" liberal establishment. These gurus know what is actually good for these gun-toting, Bible-thumpin, Mexican-hating, globalization-fearing rubes.
Obama doesn't understand that a rural Pennsylvanian will still go to church and will still hunt with or without a huge government that taxes them to death and takes care of them cradle to grave. They vote GOP because the liberal elite challenges their way of life with their anti-gun laws, "death to Christmas" attacks, and support for an anti-religious lifestyle. This "look-down on the rubes" attitude is exactly why more people do not embrace liberal values. How can a person support someone that holds them in such contempt?
“You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them,” Obama said.
“And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”
I think rural Pennsylvanians "cling" to religion and guns because they enjoy going to church and going hunting. 25 years of economic distress is not pushing them into churches and making them rush to Wal-Mart to buy rifles. It is just what this particular group of Americans like to do with their spare time.
I guess Obama's San Fransisco liberal big-wig audience needs to be be given a reason why these people go and "worship invisible men the sky" and "love their guns." After all these things are bad to the "enlightened" liberal establishment. These gurus know what is actually good for these gun-toting, Bible-thumpin, Mexican-hating, globalization-fearing rubes.
Obama doesn't understand that a rural Pennsylvanian will still go to church and will still hunt with or without a huge government that taxes them to death and takes care of them cradle to grave. They vote GOP because the liberal elite challenges their way of life with their anti-gun laws, "death to Christmas" attacks, and support for an anti-religious lifestyle. This "look-down on the rubes" attitude is exactly why more people do not embrace liberal values. How can a person support someone that holds them in such contempt?
Carl Bernstein Lets Hillary Have it
Now this is one venom filled anti-Clinton rant from a lefty reporter.
It is exactly under such circumstances that she usually resorts to the worst excesses that mark her in full warrior-mode — and all its scorched-earth, truth-be-damned manifestations. Bosnia, anyone? Smearing the women involved (or even thought to be involved) sexually with her husband. Responding to Barack Obama with the same mindset, disdain, and arsenal as she did Karl Rove and Lee Atwater, as if Obama’s politics and methodologies were as mendacious and vicious as theirs–and her own. Tax information kept secret (in 1992 to hide her profits from trading in cattle futures; in 2008 to shield the identities of Bill’s foreign clients.) A campaign that openly boasts of throwing “the kitchen sink” at her opponent.
Yeah some of the stuff that she hits Obama with you might think he is a Republican and not a member of her own party. I guess she wants to be President even it is over the smoking ruin of her own party.
It is exactly under such circumstances that she usually resorts to the worst excesses that mark her in full warrior-mode — and all its scorched-earth, truth-be-damned manifestations. Bosnia, anyone? Smearing the women involved (or even thought to be involved) sexually with her husband. Responding to Barack Obama with the same mindset, disdain, and arsenal as she did Karl Rove and Lee Atwater, as if Obama’s politics and methodologies were as mendacious and vicious as theirs–and her own. Tax information kept secret (in 1992 to hide her profits from trading in cattle futures; in 2008 to shield the identities of Bill’s foreign clients.) A campaign that openly boasts of throwing “the kitchen sink” at her opponent.
Yeah some of the stuff that she hits Obama with you might think he is a Republican and not a member of her own party. I guess she wants to be President even it is over the smoking ruin of her own party.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Hot Girls should go for Ugly Guys: It's Science!
According to this study if a woman is looking for a lifelong mate then she should go for a man who is not as good looking as them. I don't need a study to say that ugly guys will treat a hot woman FAR better then a handsome guy would. Greatfulness is a powerful motivator. So I can see ugly guys wanting to support their hot wife in any way that they could just to keep her.
McNulty's team assessed 82 couples who had married within the previous six months and had been together for nearly three years prior to tying the knot. Participants were on average in their early to mid-20s.
Researchers videotaped as each spouse discussed with their partner a personal problem for 10 minutes. The tapes were analyzed for whether partners were supportive of spouses' issues, which included goals to eat healthier, to land a new job and to exercise more often.
"A negative husband would've said, 'This is your problem, you deal with it,'" McNulty said, "versus 'Hey, I'm here for you; what do you want me to do?; how can I help you?'"
A group of trained "coders" rated the facial attractiveness of each spouse on a scale from 1 to 10, with the perfect 10 representing the ultimate babe. About a third of the couples had a more attractive wife, a third a more attractive husband and the remaining partners showed matching looks.
Overall, wives and husbands behaved more positively when the woman was better looking.
McNulty's team assessed 82 couples who had married within the previous six months and had been together for nearly three years prior to tying the knot. Participants were on average in their early to mid-20s.
Researchers videotaped as each spouse discussed with their partner a personal problem for 10 minutes. The tapes were analyzed for whether partners were supportive of spouses' issues, which included goals to eat healthier, to land a new job and to exercise more often.
"A negative husband would've said, 'This is your problem, you deal with it,'" McNulty said, "versus 'Hey, I'm here for you; what do you want me to do?; how can I help you?'"
A group of trained "coders" rated the facial attractiveness of each spouse on a scale from 1 to 10, with the perfect 10 representing the ultimate babe. About a third of the couples had a more attractive wife, a third a more attractive husband and the remaining partners showed matching looks.
Overall, wives and husbands behaved more positively when the woman was better looking.
McCain and Obama Tied Head-to-Head
It seems that all of this controversy from the Obama camp has cost him his 10 point lead against McCain.
An AP-Ipsos poll taken in late February had Obama leading McCain 51-41 percent. The current survey, conducted April 7-9, had them at 45 percent each. McCain leads Obama among men, whites, Southerners, married women and independents.
Clinton led McCain, 48-43 percent, in February. The latest survey showed the New York senator with 48 percent support to McCain's 45 percent. Factoring in the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, Clinton and McCain are statistically tied.
Hillary is now ahead of McCain in a head-to-head poll and Obama is tied. I wonder if her campaign will run with these numbers to prove that she is more electable then Obama? The more I think about it the more I think the Reverend Wright mess and the "big race debate" that followed is going to cost Obama this election.
An AP-Ipsos poll taken in late February had Obama leading McCain 51-41 percent. The current survey, conducted April 7-9, had them at 45 percent each. McCain leads Obama among men, whites, Southerners, married women and independents.
Clinton led McCain, 48-43 percent, in February. The latest survey showed the New York senator with 48 percent support to McCain's 45 percent. Factoring in the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, Clinton and McCain are statistically tied.
Hillary is now ahead of McCain in a head-to-head poll and Obama is tied. I wonder if her campaign will run with these numbers to prove that she is more electable then Obama? The more I think about it the more I think the Reverend Wright mess and the "big race debate" that followed is going to cost Obama this election.
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Why We Can't Trust Socialized Medicine
It seems Hillary was caught passing on some lies about an pregnant Ohio woman that died because she couldn't afford a $100 copay but actually had insurance and could have been taken to emergency care instead. This article is case in point on what could go wrong if Obama/Hillary got their Health Care plans passed.
Perhaps Hillary should start telling the tale of Debbie Hirst, a British breast cancer patient whose cancer had metastasized. Her oncologist suggested a drug, Avastin, which is widely used in the U.S. and other European nations to prolong the life of cancer patients like her. But bureaucrats had decided that at $120,000 a year, prolonging Debbie Hirst's life would cost just too much money to be worth it. That's bad enough, but because the government is committed to "equal care" for all its patients, the bureaucrats went even further: They told Debbie Hirst that she had to choose between buying Avastin on her own, and receiving any health care from the government at all. She could not, in other words, mortgage her own home to buy a drug to save her own life without being penalized by the loss of all her other cancer care and drugs.
So it would then be up to some American beancounter to okay your life saving surgery or medicine or condemn you to death even if you had the $120K a year to keep you alive. So this spirit of "equal care" could actually strait up kill you no matter what you wanted to do with your own money. It would be a matter of everything being free and you have to wait and die or you get to pay for everything. That sounds like something America doesn't need.
Perhaps Hillary should start telling the tale of Debbie Hirst, a British breast cancer patient whose cancer had metastasized. Her oncologist suggested a drug, Avastin, which is widely used in the U.S. and other European nations to prolong the life of cancer patients like her. But bureaucrats had decided that at $120,000 a year, prolonging Debbie Hirst's life would cost just too much money to be worth it. That's bad enough, but because the government is committed to "equal care" for all its patients, the bureaucrats went even further: They told Debbie Hirst that she had to choose between buying Avastin on her own, and receiving any health care from the government at all. She could not, in other words, mortgage her own home to buy a drug to save her own life without being penalized by the loss of all her other cancer care and drugs.
So it would then be up to some American beancounter to okay your life saving surgery or medicine or condemn you to death even if you had the $120K a year to keep you alive. So this spirit of "equal care" could actually strait up kill you no matter what you wanted to do with your own money. It would be a matter of everything being free and you have to wait and die or you get to pay for everything. That sounds like something America doesn't need.
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
YouTube Beatings: ABC Quick to Show It
So these girls wanted to beat this other girl just to get famous on YouTube and then ABC goes ahead and shows the video thus making them famous.
The eight face felony battery and false imprisonment charges tied to the attack caught on tape and posted online for the world — and law enforcement — to see. The three teens accused of dumping the victim after the beating also face an additional felony kidnapping charge. Judd said he will urge the state prosecutor's office to charge all of the teens except the 14-year-old as adults.
So they are taking the story from the possible few thousand views of YouTube to a much larger audience for pretty much no reason at all. ABC News could have reported the thing with still photos or just showed the house where it took place. Instead they showed part of the actual video and then a mug shot gallery of the minor girls involved.
So the fame that the girls wanted from YouTube was immediately granted to them by ABC News instead. So the Main Stream Media gets yet another chance to make stars out of villains. I think the ABC News editor needs to use better judgement when it comes to this kind of thing.
The eight face felony battery and false imprisonment charges tied to the attack caught on tape and posted online for the world — and law enforcement — to see. The three teens accused of dumping the victim after the beating also face an additional felony kidnapping charge. Judd said he will urge the state prosecutor's office to charge all of the teens except the 14-year-old as adults.
So they are taking the story from the possible few thousand views of YouTube to a much larger audience for pretty much no reason at all. ABC News could have reported the thing with still photos or just showed the house where it took place. Instead they showed part of the actual video and then a mug shot gallery of the minor girls involved.
So the fame that the girls wanted from YouTube was immediately granted to them by ABC News instead. So the Main Stream Media gets yet another chance to make stars out of villains. I think the ABC News editor needs to use better judgement when it comes to this kind of thing.
Monday, April 07, 2008
Wyeth and Elan may have a $10 billion Alzheimer Blockbuster
At least if leaving the conflict-of-interest off of the test that they paid for doesn't come back to haunt them. The sciene however may be good and people are saying that this is the most advanced form of thereapy yet devised.
AAB-001 is probably the most advanced product for Alzheimer’s, Jenner explains. And we’re going to get information over the next two months that will tell us about the probability of its success in Phase 3 trials.
The market is excited because there are approximately 7 million Alzheimer’s patients in the US and Western Europe. If only 1 million of those individuals get on this therapy at $10,000/ year that’s a 10 billion dollar drug!
Wyeth is down in the dumps with only about 6 points above its 52 week low and trading at a 13 P/E. If the Phase 3 data is good and they get this testing matter turns out to be just an oversight and nothing outright shady then the stock should be at a new high before too long. Elan may have even more upside since they are still a pretty small player and seem to still be in that go-go growth phase.
AAB-001 is probably the most advanced product for Alzheimer’s, Jenner explains. And we’re going to get information over the next two months that will tell us about the probability of its success in Phase 3 trials.
The market is excited because there are approximately 7 million Alzheimer’s patients in the US and Western Europe. If only 1 million of those individuals get on this therapy at $10,000/ year that’s a 10 billion dollar drug!
Wyeth is down in the dumps with only about 6 points above its 52 week low and trading at a 13 P/E. If the Phase 3 data is good and they get this testing matter turns out to be just an oversight and nothing outright shady then the stock should be at a new high before too long. Elan may have even more upside since they are still a pretty small player and seem to still be in that go-go growth phase.
An Interesting Story on Schering-Plough's Damage Control
It seems like they had a Worst Case Scenerio file ready to implement if something like this happens. Too bad implementing it ended up costing people 5000 jobs. I think as soon as that Vytorin news dropped quite a few people at SGP had to update their resumes.
"We were building on each other's ideas, and I started to say we have to be more forceful in our response and more speedy," recalled Hassan, who said he spent Tuesday night back in New Jersey on the telephone with Robert Bertolini, the company's chief financial officer. Together they hashed out the broad outlines of spending cuts based on emergency plans the company keeps at the ready.
"We were building on each other's ideas, and I started to say we have to be more forceful in our response and more speedy," recalled Hassan, who said he spent Tuesday night back in New Jersey on the telephone with Robert Bertolini, the company's chief financial officer. Together they hashed out the broad outlines of spending cuts based on emergency plans the company keeps at the ready.
Elan and Wyeth Shady Dealings on Bapineuzumab Study
It seems that they paid the guy to develop this study and had it published as an "independent" study without disclosing his potential conflicts of interest. It seems like a case of moving the goalposts exactly where you want them to be.
To help make their point, Elan and Wyeth have cited the Archives of Neurology paper, titled "A Neuropsychological Test Battery for Use in Alzheimer Disease Clinical Trials," as independent, scientific proof that validates the NTB.
Harrison is the lead author of that NTB paper, but his role as a consultant paid by Elan and Wyeth to create the test is not disclosed in it. Harrison is the only author of six listed in the paper's conflict-of-interest statement as having no financial conflicts with Elan and Wyeth. Harrison's five co-authors are all employed by Elan or Wyeth.
To help make their point, Elan and Wyeth have cited the Archives of Neurology paper, titled "A Neuropsychological Test Battery for Use in Alzheimer Disease Clinical Trials," as independent, scientific proof that validates the NTB.
Harrison is the lead author of that NTB paper, but his role as a consultant paid by Elan and Wyeth to create the test is not disclosed in it. Harrison is the only author of six listed in the paper's conflict-of-interest statement as having no financial conflicts with Elan and Wyeth. Harrison's five co-authors are all employed by Elan or Wyeth.
Dick Vitale in the Hall of Fame Baby!
I guess Dicky V finally got his due. Some people dislike his style but he is one of the reasons why ESPN college basketball telecasts have become so popular.
Vitale was 78-30 coaching U-D from 1973-77, taking the Titans to the 1977 NCAA tournament. "If my career ended today, this would be the ultimate," said Vitale, who returned in February after a few months off to take care of growths on his vocal cords.After a year as U-D's athletic director he coached the Pistons during the entire 1978-79 season and the beginning of the following season.
Vitale was 78-30 coaching U-D from 1973-77, taking the Titans to the 1977 NCAA tournament. "If my career ended today, this would be the ultimate," said Vitale, who returned in February after a few months off to take care of growths on his vocal cords.After a year as U-D's athletic director he coached the Pistons during the entire 1978-79 season and the beginning of the following season.
Friday, April 04, 2008
We may have 80,000 troops in Iraq until 2010 if Obama is boss
At least that is the figure put out there by one of his key advisers.
Adviser Colin Kahl wrote in a policy paper for the Center for a New American Security that the United States should transition to an “over-watch” force of between 60,000 and 80,000 troops by the end of 2010, according to an article Friday in the New York Sun.
I guess Obama can just ignore the guy and start pulling people out by the end of 2008 no matter what the situation is on the ground. Maybe, someone in his camp is finally coming to the realization that you can't pull everyone out in 16 months and not have Iraq fall apart. Also these two things would be in such quick succession that they would be seen as a "cause and effect" type of thing.
Chaos in Iraq due to an early US pullout would be just in time for the midterm elections as well. The GOP tactic of saying that the "Dems lost the Iraq War" would be almost impossible to fight back against. I think Obama needs to tread lightly on Iraq unless the Dems want only 2 years to get any sort of "progressive agenda" passed.
Adviser Colin Kahl wrote in a policy paper for the Center for a New American Security that the United States should transition to an “over-watch” force of between 60,000 and 80,000 troops by the end of 2010, according to an article Friday in the New York Sun.
I guess Obama can just ignore the guy and start pulling people out by the end of 2008 no matter what the situation is on the ground. Maybe, someone in his camp is finally coming to the realization that you can't pull everyone out in 16 months and not have Iraq fall apart. Also these two things would be in such quick succession that they would be seen as a "cause and effect" type of thing.
Chaos in Iraq due to an early US pullout would be just in time for the midterm elections as well. The GOP tactic of saying that the "Dems lost the Iraq War" would be almost impossible to fight back against. I think Obama needs to tread lightly on Iraq unless the Dems want only 2 years to get any sort of "progressive agenda" passed.
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Christopher Dodd is an Idiot
Again the FED chairman and a whole bunch of CEOs have to waste their time before Congress to explain the Bear Stearns Buyout to them.
Was this a justified rescue to prevent a systemic collapse of financial markets or a $30 billion taxpayer bailout, as some have called it, for a Wall Street firm while people on Main Street struggle to pay their mortgages?" asked Sen. Christopher Dodd, the Connecticut Democrat who chairs the committee.
I think those Main Street people would really be hurting if Bear went bankrupt and the Stock Market fell by 1000+ points and took their IRAs with it. I'm sorry Mr. Mainstreet the FED sat on its hands and Bear went bankrupt so you won't be able to retire anytime soon.
The head of the banking committee should be aware of things like contra-party risks and what a capital crisis to a broker means. He makes it sound like the FED is bailing out "Wall Street fat cats" at the detriment of nebulous middle class folks instead of heading off what could have been a world financial crisis. You just can't trust a Democrat when it comes to money matters.
Was this a justified rescue to prevent a systemic collapse of financial markets or a $30 billion taxpayer bailout, as some have called it, for a Wall Street firm while people on Main Street struggle to pay their mortgages?" asked Sen. Christopher Dodd, the Connecticut Democrat who chairs the committee.
I think those Main Street people would really be hurting if Bear went bankrupt and the Stock Market fell by 1000+ points and took their IRAs with it. I'm sorry Mr. Mainstreet the FED sat on its hands and Bear went bankrupt so you won't be able to retire anytime soon.
The head of the banking committee should be aware of things like contra-party risks and what a capital crisis to a broker means. He makes it sound like the FED is bailing out "Wall Street fat cats" at the detriment of nebulous middle class folks instead of heading off what could have been a world financial crisis. You just can't trust a Democrat when it comes to money matters.
Wednesday, April 02, 2008
Sprints Hopes Rest on Crappy IPhone-like Item
It kind of sucks that a company that is so damaged that it can't roll out a game-changing technology like WiMax without begging for funds is pinning all their hopes on such an ugly device.
I mean it looks like an IPhone designed by a guy that makes plastic flanges for a living. Also those icons have to be some of the most boring ever created for an electronic device. Even the happy face above the word "Fun" makes me want to take a nap.
I figure after they pump $150 million into advertising this thing will probably sell about 1/3 of the amount that the IPhone does and be a big disaster for Sprint. It just looks like such a 2nd rate knock-off when you directly compare the two devices. I mean it looks crappy even if it was the first touch-phone produced instead of coming a year late to the party.
The Samsung Instinct will be available in June for a yet undetermined price, Sprint announced at CTIA Wireless, a cell-phone industry trade show in Las Vegas. Executives hinted that the price would be substantially lower than the $399 charged for the cheapest iPhone.
I mean it looks like an IPhone designed by a guy that makes plastic flanges for a living. Also those icons have to be some of the most boring ever created for an electronic device. Even the happy face above the word "Fun" makes me want to take a nap.
I figure after they pump $150 million into advertising this thing will probably sell about 1/3 of the amount that the IPhone does and be a big disaster for Sprint. It just looks like such a 2nd rate knock-off when you directly compare the two devices. I mean it looks crappy even if it was the first touch-phone produced instead of coming a year late to the party.
Schering-Plough Cutting Costs
Well, it didn't take SGP long to get out the Ax and start chopping.
The cuts will disproportionately hit the United States and will include everything from plant consolidations and streamlining of management to trimming overhead and spending on research and development, Chief Executive Officer Fred Hassan said in a conference call Wednesday evening.
He said the plan calls to reduce headcount by 10 percent worldwide and the goal is to make 80 percent of the $1.5 billion in total cuts by the end of 2010, with the rest by 2012. Schering-Plough currently has 55,000 employees, including 8,000 in New Jersey.
These cuts cannot come too soon but I think the company might be wounded severely unless they can come though on their pipeline. Most of the good stuff is only in phase II and only the anti-rhumatoid arthritus (golimumab) sounds like something that might hit the bottom line in the near future. I wonder if we will be seeing some single digits in this stock before too long?
The cuts will disproportionately hit the United States and will include everything from plant consolidations and streamlining of management to trimming overhead and spending on research and development, Chief Executive Officer Fred Hassan said in a conference call Wednesday evening.
He said the plan calls to reduce headcount by 10 percent worldwide and the goal is to make 80 percent of the $1.5 billion in total cuts by the end of 2010, with the rest by 2012. Schering-Plough currently has 55,000 employees, including 8,000 in New Jersey.
These cuts cannot come too soon but I think the company might be wounded severely unless they can come though on their pipeline. Most of the good stuff is only in phase II and only the anti-rhumatoid arthritus (golimumab) sounds like something that might hit the bottom line in the near future. I wonder if we will be seeing some single digits in this stock before too long?
RIMM Blows Away the numbers
I guess the slowdown does not affect the amount of Blackberrys sold by RIMM. I think this is the reason why they are up 5 points in the after hours:
In the first quarter RIM expects revenue to range from $2.23 billion to $2.3 billion and earnings to range of to 82 cents to 86 cents a share.
Analysts expect revenue of $2 billion and EPS of 75 cents in the quarter.
The classic blow the numbers out then guide way higher one-two punch. I think you might see a rally in tech tomorrow since Best Buy also did pretty well. I thought consumer spending was dead? I guess all of those Blueray DVDs, video games, and digital gadgets are more recession proof then you might think.
The company says it expects a solid second half to pull fiscal 2009 same-store sales up 1% to 3%, with overall revenue, including new stores, rising as much as 10% to $44 billion.
In the first quarter RIM expects revenue to range from $2.23 billion to $2.3 billion and earnings to range of to 82 cents to 86 cents a share.
Analysts expect revenue of $2 billion and EPS of 75 cents in the quarter.
The classic blow the numbers out then guide way higher one-two punch. I think you might see a rally in tech tomorrow since Best Buy also did pretty well. I thought consumer spending was dead? I guess all of those Blueray DVDs, video games, and digital gadgets are more recession proof then you might think.
The company says it expects a solid second half to pull fiscal 2009 same-store sales up 1% to 3%, with overall revenue, including new stores, rising as much as 10% to $44 billion.
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Again Congress Wantes to Rob the Oil Companies
I wonder why they don't get King Abdullah, Almadinajoke, and Hugo Chavez on the stand and grill them as well? Of course the oil companies are a nice soft target since they are making "record profits" and should be punished for some unknown reason. This must by Congresses idea of "doing something about the high price of oil." Grandstanding.
Executives from the largest U.S oil companies have been frequent targets of lawmakers, frustrated at not being able to do much to counter soaring oil and gasoline costs.
In November, 2005, Hofmeister and the top executives of the same companies represented Tuesday sat in a Senate hearing room to explain high prices and their huge profits.
About six months later, when the cost of the same barrel reached $75, the executives were grilled again on Capitol Hill on their spending and investment priorities.
Executives from the largest U.S oil companies have been frequent targets of lawmakers, frustrated at not being able to do much to counter soaring oil and gasoline costs.
In November, 2005, Hofmeister and the top executives of the same companies represented Tuesday sat in a Senate hearing room to explain high prices and their huge profits.
About six months later, when the cost of the same barrel reached $75, the executives were grilled again on Capitol Hill on their spending and investment priorities.
Hillary Finds her Funny Bone
I guess it was buried under a thick layer of humourless robotic parts. But I have to admit that this was a pretty funny April Fools Joke. After trundling to the podium with a tense look on her face she made with the funny.
"A bowling night. Right here in Pennsylvania. The winner take all," she went on. "I'll even spot him two frames."
"It is time for his campaign to get out of the gutter and allow all the pins to be counted. I'm prepared to play this game all the way to the tenth frame. When this game is over, the American people will know that when that phone rings at 3 a.m., they'll have a president ready to bowl on day one."
"Let's strike a deal and go bowling for delegates. We don't have a moment to spare, because it's already April Fool's Day. Happy April Fool's Day."
"A bowling night. Right here in Pennsylvania. The winner take all," she went on. "I'll even spot him two frames."
"It is time for his campaign to get out of the gutter and allow all the pins to be counted. I'm prepared to play this game all the way to the tenth frame. When this game is over, the American people will know that when that phone rings at 3 a.m., they'll have a president ready to bowl on day one."
"Let's strike a deal and go bowling for delegates. We don't have a moment to spare, because it's already April Fool's Day. Happy April Fool's Day."
Monday, March 31, 2008
Corn Acres to Drop; Soybeans to climb; Monsanto Might Smash Some Face
It might be another year of high corn prices because farmers are going to plant 7.6 million less acres of corn. However, it looks like it will be a banner year of soybeans:
Nationwide, soybean acreage is expected to jump 18 percent, to 74.8 million acres. This is an increase of 11.2 million acres from 2007 and is just 1 percent below 2006’s record high.
Acreage increases are expected in nearly every state, with the largest growth in Iowa, up 1.25 million acres, and Nebraska, up 1.2 million. Increases of at least 800,000 acres are anticipated in Indiana, Minnesota and South Dakota, while Kansas, New York and Pennsylvania are expected to plant their largest soybean crops in history.
I guess this is bad news for companies that make fertilizer since corn seems to use far more Potash and Nitrogen then Soybeans do.
However it should be great news for Monsanto since they have an almost monopoly position in bioengineered soybean seeds. In fact there may even be a soybean seed shortage in some parts of the country.
This may be great for margin expansion since Monsanto may have some strong pricing power if they crank out those seeds in a timely manner. Soybeans are planted in May so we won't get any sense of these numbers on Monsanto's bottom line until after that. In any case I am hoping for a pullback below the $100 mark so I can get long Monsanto.
Nationwide, soybean acreage is expected to jump 18 percent, to 74.8 million acres. This is an increase of 11.2 million acres from 2007 and is just 1 percent below 2006’s record high.
Acreage increases are expected in nearly every state, with the largest growth in Iowa, up 1.25 million acres, and Nebraska, up 1.2 million. Increases of at least 800,000 acres are anticipated in Indiana, Minnesota and South Dakota, while Kansas, New York and Pennsylvania are expected to plant their largest soybean crops in history.
I guess this is bad news for companies that make fertilizer since corn seems to use far more Potash and Nitrogen then Soybeans do.
However it should be great news for Monsanto since they have an almost monopoly position in bioengineered soybean seeds. In fact there may even be a soybean seed shortage in some parts of the country.
This may be great for margin expansion since Monsanto may have some strong pricing power if they crank out those seeds in a timely manner. Soybeans are planted in May so we won't get any sense of these numbers on Monsanto's bottom line until after that. In any case I am hoping for a pullback below the $100 mark so I can get long Monsanto.
Vytorin and Zetia Deemed No Better That Generic
I guess all of those ads on TV amounted to nothing in terms of stopping heart disease.
The cardiologists made the recommendation at a conference Sunday in Chicago, where researchers presented full results of the so-called "Enhance" study. The patient trial showed the drugs were no better than an older, cheaper drug at slowing artery thickening, despite
producing a greater drop in bad cholesterol levels.
I guess combining Zetia and Zocor which seemed like a way to end-around Zocor being made into a generic doesn't do anything in particular. It should be especially bad for Schering-Plough since a majority of their revenue came from sales of these drugs.
One thing I noticed was that if this $5 billion cut in sales number is to be believed SGP may be heading for bad times unless they tighten their belts considerably. You would figure that they would lose about $2 billion in sales and they could burn through their $2.2 billion in cash on their books in no time. The bad part is that they already have $9.48 billion in debt on their books so any slip-up could be disastrous for SGP.
I guess it is all up to how fast people dump these drugs for either the generic or their competitors. My guess is that it will be fairly fast since people are already facing high healthcare costs and the generic is pretty much does the same thing as Vytorin/Zetia but for much cheaper. SGP better have a great pipeline.
It should also be good for Pfizer's Lipitor and AstraZenica's Crestor. Those stocks may get the lions share of that $5 billion shortfall. Also it makes me wonder if they will be making a combo Lipitor/Crestor in the near future to dodge when they will become generic?
The cardiologists made the recommendation at a conference Sunday in Chicago, where researchers presented full results of the so-called "Enhance" study. The patient trial showed the drugs were no better than an older, cheaper drug at slowing artery thickening, despite
producing a greater drop in bad cholesterol levels.
I guess combining Zetia and Zocor which seemed like a way to end-around Zocor being made into a generic doesn't do anything in particular. It should be especially bad for Schering-Plough since a majority of their revenue came from sales of these drugs.
One thing I noticed was that if this $5 billion cut in sales number is to be believed SGP may be heading for bad times unless they tighten their belts considerably. You would figure that they would lose about $2 billion in sales and they could burn through their $2.2 billion in cash on their books in no time. The bad part is that they already have $9.48 billion in debt on their books so any slip-up could be disastrous for SGP.
I guess it is all up to how fast people dump these drugs for either the generic or their competitors. My guess is that it will be fairly fast since people are already facing high healthcare costs and the generic is pretty much does the same thing as Vytorin/Zetia but for much cheaper. SGP better have a great pipeline.
It should also be good for Pfizer's Lipitor and AstraZenica's Crestor. Those stocks may get the lions share of that $5 billion shortfall. Also it makes me wonder if they will be making a combo Lipitor/Crestor in the near future to dodge when they will become generic?
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Obama's Housing Market Fix Could Create a Banking Disaster
I recently read Obama's Housing Market fix and it is a big fat plan the kill the financial industry and is a $30 billion handout to housing speculators. Some of it even sounds dangerous to our fragile economy. It might even throw this country into a decades long depression. Also on reading it struck me that Obama hates the idea that taking on excessive risk (and not managing it) could cause you to lose a bunch of money or maybe even your house. However you could also make a ton of money as well. That is the nature of risk! In any case here we go point by point:
1. Provide the Federal Reserve with basic supervisory authority over any financial
institution to which it may make credit available as a lender of last resort.
I guess he wants the FED to actively check on what their borrowers of last resort do with their money. What sort of oversight does the FED have to do? Are they going to check the credit worthiness of the loans that that bank uses the FED money for? Will they be saying "this plan is just too risky for the FEDs money so Citigroup deny that loan?" Thus, the next Microsoft or Starbucks might just be getting their seed money from an Irish Bank and launching in Dubai instead of in the US. Good job, Obama you will made risk a dirty word and will have caused all the risk-takers to leave for greener pastures overseas.
2. Capital, liquidity and disclosure requirements should be developed and strengthened for all financial institutions.
So even more money will have to be set aside as capital requirements (and thus can't be loaned out,) and another layer of Sarbanes-Oxley nonsense will be put to banks in the future? I guess Obama wants to choke banks out and make it so that extending credit in the US a thing of the past. Also the idea of the Government looking over the shoulder of ratings agencies should be something that needs to be avoided. I guess the Government could take over as a ratings agency but isn't that like the bond issuer saying "yes our bonds are AAA *wink*?"
3. End our balkanized framework of overlapping and competing regulatory agencies.
I'm not sure if he simply wants to abolish the SEC, FDIC etc. or just roll them all into one complicated mega-agency? It seems like a pie-in-the-sky plan because those agencies are entrenched and some like the SEC are very effective at what they do. Also a vast agency will concentrate too much power into only a few hands. Finally, like any other mega-agency there will be fraud, waste, and abuse coming out of every pore.
4. Regulate financial institutions for what they do, rather than who they are.
I guess that is an interesting plan but you are punishing everyone for the excesses of a few. It is true that mortgage brokers like Countrywide originated these bad loans but why are we punishing the pension funds and the investment banks who just bought those bundled mortgages looking for a greater return for their shareholders? Also how can you regulate what something like an investment bank does? They are in so many parts of the economy that they would probably just move their headquarters to Dubai or something just to avoid the regulation morass.
5. Crack down on trading activity that crosses the line to market manipulation.
I think Obama needs to read what the SEC does on a daily basis. There might have been rumors swirling around Bear Stearns but no one could have stopped a canny trader from buying those $30 Puts on Wednesday and just following that 500K spike in volume and made money along with the big boys. You would have risked $15 a Put with a chance to make $1000s. Risk=Potential Reward Senator Obama.
6. Identify systemic risks to the financial system, no matter where they arise.
I guess this would be the department of reading minds or crystal balls or something. Maybe we can get Harry Potter to head it. I guess this puts the FED Chairman out of a job and allows Congress to grill some other poor fool about something they clearly do not understand themselves.
Create a New FHA Housing Security Program:
This looks like a strait prop-up that keeps housing prices going up and up artificially. If the I can get a government guarantee that I won't lose money in my home then sign me up. The trick is who is going to pay me for my home once I sell? A house is only worth what some other person would pay for the thing. If you bought at the wrong time you should not be rewarded.
Call on Lenders to Write Down Loan Amounts on More Conventional Borrowers at Risk:
So when house prices drop then the banks need eat the difference? That doesn't make any sense at all. This would mean that the banks take the risk that the prices would drop but the homeowner gets all the benefits. What happened to wait a few years until supply and demand get back into balance and then selling the home? You are underwater for a while but eventually things will pick back up. Markets are cyclical Senator Obama.
Close the Bankruptcy Loophole for Mortgage Companies:
So now we will have bankruptcy judges deciding on what interest rate would be fair in a bankruptcy proceeding? That doesn't make any sense. Bankrupt people with multiple homes and vacation homes usually have other revenue streams, securities, performing businesses etc. in order to pay off restructured mortgages. People that took on too much house and signed a no-money down ARM do not have anything left to pay the mortgage. Even if the thing was restructured they still couldn't pay for it.
Lower People’s Interest Payments by Creating a New Mortgage Interest Tax Credit:
This suggestion doesn't make any sense. This would provide a mechanism to get a tax credit even if you don't itemize deductions. What middle-class American with a mortgage doesn't itemize deductions? I think Obama has a pathological fear of itemizing taxes.
Provide an Additional $10 Billion of Mortgage Revenue Bond Authority:
He wants people who are lower income to buy a home? That also doesn't make any sense. People with low incomes usually don't have enough job security to keep up with 30 years worth of mortgage payments. We should be working on getting that low income person to become a high income person. They should be able to work for a decent company, start their own business, or aquire other skills. McDonalds has upper management that used to by fry cooks in just about every level of their company. They just had to work their asses off to get there.
Combat Mortgage Fraud and Predatory Subprime Loans: and
Mandate Accurate and Easy to Understand Loan Disclosure:
This seems like a laudable goal and should be pushed through. I think people not knowing what they were signing is what caused alot of this mess in the first place. Borrowers need to be given a point by point breakdown of how much they need to pay per month so that they aren't blindsided by ARMs in the future. So the borrower would see a table that has a cell that shows a 5% interest rate and you pay $900 a month, 6% interest you will pay $1100 a month, etc. That way people can budget and anticipate what they can afford before they sign any documents. If that McMansion causes them to pay $5K extra if the interest rate goes from 5% to 6% then the borrower needs to know that before he signs a single document.
Create a $10 Billion Foreclosure Prevention Fund to Help Americans Keep their Homes:
This allows people who bought too much house then they could afford keep their white elephant houses until they would be able to sell them. It looks like this would reward people for buying into the bubble instead of using sound fiscal constraint on what amount of house they could afford. So this pretty much amounts to Obama giving out billions for McMansion buyers and rips off people who were fiscally smart.
Provide $10 Billion in Relief for State and Local Governments Hardest-Hit by Housing Crisis toPrevent Cuts in Critical Services:
So if you are in a high speculation state like California, Arizona, Nevada, or Florida then Obama is going to give you some free money. I think someone needs to tell the Senator that part of the home price drop was due to homebuilders building tons of supply and speculators providing the demand. That demand dried up quick and those areas are now ghost towns. So some of the hardest hit areas are in states that had very high rates of speculation. The homes that we are talking about are usually luxury homes that some speculator tried to flip and now cannot sell or had to walk away from.
Extend and Expand Unemployment Insurance: I was with him on this until the last part and then it became asinine. Extending unemployment insurance to part-time workers makes no sense at all and would make quite a few high school and college kids suddenly able to claim unemployment. I guess this is to prepare the next generation of Americans be able to climb aboard the Obama hand-out wagon.
1. Provide the Federal Reserve with basic supervisory authority over any financial
institution to which it may make credit available as a lender of last resort.
I guess he wants the FED to actively check on what their borrowers of last resort do with their money. What sort of oversight does the FED have to do? Are they going to check the credit worthiness of the loans that that bank uses the FED money for? Will they be saying "this plan is just too risky for the FEDs money so Citigroup deny that loan?" Thus, the next Microsoft or Starbucks might just be getting their seed money from an Irish Bank and launching in Dubai instead of in the US. Good job, Obama you will made risk a dirty word and will have caused all the risk-takers to leave for greener pastures overseas.
2. Capital, liquidity and disclosure requirements should be developed and strengthened for all financial institutions.
So even more money will have to be set aside as capital requirements (and thus can't be loaned out,) and another layer of Sarbanes-Oxley nonsense will be put to banks in the future? I guess Obama wants to choke banks out and make it so that extending credit in the US a thing of the past. Also the idea of the Government looking over the shoulder of ratings agencies should be something that needs to be avoided. I guess the Government could take over as a ratings agency but isn't that like the bond issuer saying "yes our bonds are AAA *wink*?"
3. End our balkanized framework of overlapping and competing regulatory agencies.
I'm not sure if he simply wants to abolish the SEC, FDIC etc. or just roll them all into one complicated mega-agency? It seems like a pie-in-the-sky plan because those agencies are entrenched and some like the SEC are very effective at what they do. Also a vast agency will concentrate too much power into only a few hands. Finally, like any other mega-agency there will be fraud, waste, and abuse coming out of every pore.
4. Regulate financial institutions for what they do, rather than who they are.
I guess that is an interesting plan but you are punishing everyone for the excesses of a few. It is true that mortgage brokers like Countrywide originated these bad loans but why are we punishing the pension funds and the investment banks who just bought those bundled mortgages looking for a greater return for their shareholders? Also how can you regulate what something like an investment bank does? They are in so many parts of the economy that they would probably just move their headquarters to Dubai or something just to avoid the regulation morass.
5. Crack down on trading activity that crosses the line to market manipulation.
I think Obama needs to read what the SEC does on a daily basis. There might have been rumors swirling around Bear Stearns but no one could have stopped a canny trader from buying those $30 Puts on Wednesday and just following that 500K spike in volume and made money along with the big boys. You would have risked $15 a Put with a chance to make $1000s. Risk=Potential Reward Senator Obama.
6. Identify systemic risks to the financial system, no matter where they arise.
I guess this would be the department of reading minds or crystal balls or something. Maybe we can get Harry Potter to head it. I guess this puts the FED Chairman out of a job and allows Congress to grill some other poor fool about something they clearly do not understand themselves.
Create a New FHA Housing Security Program:
This looks like a strait prop-up that keeps housing prices going up and up artificially. If the I can get a government guarantee that I won't lose money in my home then sign me up. The trick is who is going to pay me for my home once I sell? A house is only worth what some other person would pay for the thing. If you bought at the wrong time you should not be rewarded.
Call on Lenders to Write Down Loan Amounts on More Conventional Borrowers at Risk:
So when house prices drop then the banks need eat the difference? That doesn't make any sense at all. This would mean that the banks take the risk that the prices would drop but the homeowner gets all the benefits. What happened to wait a few years until supply and demand get back into balance and then selling the home? You are underwater for a while but eventually things will pick back up. Markets are cyclical Senator Obama.
Close the Bankruptcy Loophole for Mortgage Companies:
So now we will have bankruptcy judges deciding on what interest rate would be fair in a bankruptcy proceeding? That doesn't make any sense. Bankrupt people with multiple homes and vacation homes usually have other revenue streams, securities, performing businesses etc. in order to pay off restructured mortgages. People that took on too much house and signed a no-money down ARM do not have anything left to pay the mortgage. Even if the thing was restructured they still couldn't pay for it.
Lower People’s Interest Payments by Creating a New Mortgage Interest Tax Credit:
This suggestion doesn't make any sense. This would provide a mechanism to get a tax credit even if you don't itemize deductions. What middle-class American with a mortgage doesn't itemize deductions? I think Obama has a pathological fear of itemizing taxes.
Provide an Additional $10 Billion of Mortgage Revenue Bond Authority:
He wants people who are lower income to buy a home? That also doesn't make any sense. People with low incomes usually don't have enough job security to keep up with 30 years worth of mortgage payments. We should be working on getting that low income person to become a high income person. They should be able to work for a decent company, start their own business, or aquire other skills. McDonalds has upper management that used to by fry cooks in just about every level of their company. They just had to work their asses off to get there.
Combat Mortgage Fraud and Predatory Subprime Loans: and
Mandate Accurate and Easy to Understand Loan Disclosure:
This seems like a laudable goal and should be pushed through. I think people not knowing what they were signing is what caused alot of this mess in the first place. Borrowers need to be given a point by point breakdown of how much they need to pay per month so that they aren't blindsided by ARMs in the future. So the borrower would see a table that has a cell that shows a 5% interest rate and you pay $900 a month, 6% interest you will pay $1100 a month, etc. That way people can budget and anticipate what they can afford before they sign any documents. If that McMansion causes them to pay $5K extra if the interest rate goes from 5% to 6% then the borrower needs to know that before he signs a single document.
Create a $10 Billion Foreclosure Prevention Fund to Help Americans Keep their Homes:
This allows people who bought too much house then they could afford keep their white elephant houses until they would be able to sell them. It looks like this would reward people for buying into the bubble instead of using sound fiscal constraint on what amount of house they could afford. So this pretty much amounts to Obama giving out billions for McMansion buyers and rips off people who were fiscally smart.
Provide $10 Billion in Relief for State and Local Governments Hardest-Hit by Housing Crisis toPrevent Cuts in Critical Services:
So if you are in a high speculation state like California, Arizona, Nevada, or Florida then Obama is going to give you some free money. I think someone needs to tell the Senator that part of the home price drop was due to homebuilders building tons of supply and speculators providing the demand. That demand dried up quick and those areas are now ghost towns. So some of the hardest hit areas are in states that had very high rates of speculation. The homes that we are talking about are usually luxury homes that some speculator tried to flip and now cannot sell or had to walk away from.
Extend and Expand Unemployment Insurance: I was with him on this until the last part and then it became asinine. Extending unemployment insurance to part-time workers makes no sense at all and would make quite a few high school and college kids suddenly able to claim unemployment. I guess this is to prepare the next generation of Americans be able to climb aboard the Obama hand-out wagon.
Obama Decries "Ethic of Greed" Then Goes to Fundraiser
The bad thing is he went to the fundraiser in a room that that greed paid for.
He basically said you greedy bastards got us into this mess now give me your money. Too bad Obama didn't blame one very important party that is part and parcel of the foreclosure mess. That would be the homebuyer. These people took on too much house, didn't know that an no-money down ARM would eventually cause them to pay a rate above their heads, and treated their houses like ATMs.
You can also blame those house-flippers that thought home prices would rise forever and took on 10 loans to buy 10 houses when they couldn't afford to pay the mortgage on one. These speculators and high risk homebuyers are just as complicit in the mortgage mess as greedy businessmen and complacent politicians.
Barack Obama went to New York Thursday and blamed lobbyists, greedy
businessmen and complacent Washington politicians for creating “an ethic of
greed” that led to today’s foreclosure crisis.
Not long after he left the stage, the Democratic presidential hopeful attended a fundraiser held by his campaign in a room in the Manhattan headquarters of Credit Suisse, one of the major investment companies caught up in the subprime lending mess.
He basically said you greedy bastards got us into this mess now give me your money. Too bad Obama didn't blame one very important party that is part and parcel of the foreclosure mess. That would be the homebuyer. These people took on too much house, didn't know that an no-money down ARM would eventually cause them to pay a rate above their heads, and treated their houses like ATMs.
You can also blame those house-flippers that thought home prices would rise forever and took on 10 loans to buy 10 houses when they couldn't afford to pay the mortgage on one. These speculators and high risk homebuyers are just as complicit in the mortgage mess as greedy businessmen and complacent politicians.
Why Reverend Wright has Scuttled Obama in my Eyes
This is a great look at the Wright issue from a lefty blog that I usually dislike quite a bit but this poster I actually agree with:
Reverend Wright blows this notion up by providing a message that seems to preach anything but hope and cooperation at least from black America toward white America. His other sermons may have been about Christian values but saying things like "the government created the AIDS virus to kill blacks" undermines that message. Wright brings up the angry race hatred that Obama was supposed to be a step away from.
The funny thing is Obama even had me seriously thinking about liberal canards like universal health care by making them seem like something that a "new and hopeful" America should try. I was willing to hear him out if he came up with a decent way to pay for it. He could say stuff like "a great country such as ours should have health care for the poorest of our citizens" and make it sound like something worth paying for. He could sell things like this without a guilt-trip but a "hope-trip."
But when Obamas spiritual mentor says "God Damn America" it is hard to get on board something like that. Obama has been fairly or unfairly lumped in with the "hate America first" wing of the Democratic party. The more I look at it the more I think the YouTube clips of Reverend Wrights sermons might just be the "Dean Scream" of his campaign.
Obama's doing a great job of telling us what's wrong about Bush's
presidency - which appeals to the left. He's also offering an emotionally
powerful idea of hope and cooperation - which appeals to everyone, including
Republicans.
Obama is the Democratic Reagan. The Dems for Reagan voted
not for his right-wing policies, but for his message of optimism.
That's why Republicans will vote for Obama in the fall, and he might even win a
landslide.
Reverend Wright blows this notion up by providing a message that seems to preach anything but hope and cooperation at least from black America toward white America. His other sermons may have been about Christian values but saying things like "the government created the AIDS virus to kill blacks" undermines that message. Wright brings up the angry race hatred that Obama was supposed to be a step away from.
The funny thing is Obama even had me seriously thinking about liberal canards like universal health care by making them seem like something that a "new and hopeful" America should try. I was willing to hear him out if he came up with a decent way to pay for it. He could say stuff like "a great country such as ours should have health care for the poorest of our citizens" and make it sound like something worth paying for. He could sell things like this without a guilt-trip but a "hope-trip."
But when Obamas spiritual mentor says "God Damn America" it is hard to get on board something like that. Obama has been fairly or unfairly lumped in with the "hate America first" wing of the Democratic party. The more I look at it the more I think the YouTube clips of Reverend Wrights sermons might just be the "Dean Scream" of his campaign.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Yamana Gold Approached with Tender Offer
Hmm, this seems kind of strange to me.
Why would they approach Yamana with such a low-ball offer? Were they simply hoping that the company would just accept a below-the-market price? I guess TRC Capital was hoping to build a large position in the stock but wanted to do it under the radar.
I wonder why they couldn't simply wait until the stock dropped into their range and started buying little by little like most funds do? In any case I still think that the market is undervaluing the price of gold when it comes to Yamana's shares. So maybe that was TRC Capitals was thinking when they approached them with the offer.
YAMANA GOLD INC. announced that it has received a copy of an unsolicited
below market "mini-tender" offer made by TRC Capital Corporation, pursuant to
which TRC Capital has offered to purchase up to 3,000,000, or approximately 0.48 percent of the outstanding common shares of Yamana. The offer price of C$15.75 per common share represents a 1.87 percent and 1.68 percent discount,
respectively, to the C$16.05 and US$15.70.
Why would they approach Yamana with such a low-ball offer? Were they simply hoping that the company would just accept a below-the-market price? I guess TRC Capital was hoping to build a large position in the stock but wanted to do it under the radar.
I wonder why they couldn't simply wait until the stock dropped into their range and started buying little by little like most funds do? In any case I still think that the market is undervaluing the price of gold when it comes to Yamana's shares. So maybe that was TRC Capitals was thinking when they approached them with the offer.
Google Paid Clicks Up 3%
It seems that growth may have slowed at Google but these numbers seem very hard to interpret and seem to be contradicted by other sources.
So is the February paid click-rate up 3% or 29% in February? Can Comscore be trusted to give decent measures or do we trust an ad placement firm instead? I would be willing to side more with the ad placement firm because they are actually getting money to place the ads on Google. In any case I guess we won't know for sure until Google brings out its numbers on April 17th.
Web search marketing firm SearchIgnite, which places $300 million in ads on
behalf of large- and mid-sized advertisers and their ad agencies, says its own
data shows Google's year-to-year paid click rate growing 29.0 percent in
February.
So is the February paid click-rate up 3% or 29% in February? Can Comscore be trusted to give decent measures or do we trust an ad placement firm instead? I would be willing to side more with the ad placement firm because they are actually getting money to place the ads on Google. In any case I guess we won't know for sure until Google brings out its numbers on April 17th.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Mexico now 2nd Fatest Nation
I think America's fatness is one of our key exports now.
I wonder how diabetes has passed heart disease as the top cause of death? Is it a genetic thing or what? In any case I think Mexico may be heading for a health crisis in a few years if that many Mexicans are obese.
More than 71 percent of Mexican women and 66 percent of Mexican men are
overweight, according to the latest national surveys.
With diabetes now Mexico's leading cause of death, activists and leaders hope to renew efforts to crack down on junk food and other fatty-food consumption and encourage citizens to exercise more.
I wonder how diabetes has passed heart disease as the top cause of death? Is it a genetic thing or what? In any case I think Mexico may be heading for a health crisis in a few years if that many Mexicans are obese.
Googles White Space for Wireless Plan
Sounds like a good idea from the good people at Google.
Yeah most of those channels are just worthless snow and if they can be turned into a viable cheap wireless category it would be great for everyone. I think it will get a lot more people to try wireless broadband if it was easily available.
I wonder if Google is planning to add national wireless carrier to their business ideas? I would switch to a Google branded wireless connection in a heartbeat even if I had to pay like $25 a month for it. The Verizon Wireless plan is an idiotically high $59.99 a month. I mean the Koreans pay only $17.60 a month for their wireless broadband why should we have to pay 5 times more?
"As Google has pointed out previously, the vast majority of viable
spectrum in this country simply goes unused, or else is grossly
underutilized," Richard Whitt, Google's Washington telecom and media lawyer,
wrote in the letter. "Unlike other natural resources, there is no benefit to
allowing this spectrum to lie fallow."
Google said the white space, located between channels 2 and 51 on
TV sets that aren't hooked up to satellite or cable services, offer a
"once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to provide ubiquitous wireless broadband access
to all Americans."
Yeah most of those channels are just worthless snow and if they can be turned into a viable cheap wireless category it would be great for everyone. I think it will get a lot more people to try wireless broadband if it was easily available.
I wonder if Google is planning to add national wireless carrier to their business ideas? I would switch to a Google branded wireless connection in a heartbeat even if I had to pay like $25 a month for it. The Verizon Wireless plan is an idiotically high $59.99 a month. I mean the Koreans pay only $17.60 a month for their wireless broadband why should we have to pay 5 times more?
A Response to Dollar Weakness
Here is another article that talks about how being long commodities and short the dollar may be a bad place to be going forward.
There are just too many factors against further dollar weakness to keep it sustainable. Despite what the goldbugs say there are real supply and demand fundamentals to the price of gold. I mean quite a bit of current gold sales are going to ETFs now and not jewelry creation like it is supposed to. I agree with the premise that much of the dollar weakness has been self-inflicted and can be changed with sound fiscal policy and investment leadership in alternative energy. I mean the idea of a "Moonshot for Green Energy" could potentially bring trillions into the US.
Our debt to GDP ratios are still amongst best in the developed world, and a
few mere changes of government policy with respect to entitlement
sustainability, tax policy, energy and food subsidization, and redirection of
war spending to local infrastructure improvement can easily usher an era of US
broad economic leadership.
There are just too many factors against further dollar weakness to keep it sustainable. Despite what the goldbugs say there are real supply and demand fundamentals to the price of gold. I mean quite a bit of current gold sales are going to ETFs now and not jewelry creation like it is supposed to. I agree with the premise that much of the dollar weakness has been self-inflicted and can be changed with sound fiscal policy and investment leadership in alternative energy. I mean the idea of a "Moonshot for Green Energy" could potentially bring trillions into the US.
Friday, March 21, 2008
Starbucks Ordered to Pay Tips
It seems that Starbucks might get a $106 million dollar haircut if this verdict stands.
I guess Starbucks had it so that shift supervisors would dip into the tip jar instead of being paid a higher wage by Starbucks higher-ups. I wonder if other service industries are this way as well. It would suck for a waitress/waiter to have to share her tips with their supervisor because the restaurant they worked for wanted to keep their salary costs down.
The lawsuit was filed in October 2004 by Jou Chou, a former Starbucks
barista in La Jolla, who complained shift supervisors were sharing in employee
tips.
The lawsuit gained ground in 2006 when it was granted class-action
status, allowing the suit to go forward for as many as 100,000 former and
current baristas in the coffee chain's California stores.
I guess Starbucks had it so that shift supervisors would dip into the tip jar instead of being paid a higher wage by Starbucks higher-ups. I wonder if other service industries are this way as well. It would suck for a waitress/waiter to have to share her tips with their supervisor because the restaurant they worked for wanted to keep their salary costs down.
Weird Wildlife Found in Antarctic waters
It seems like there is some weird stuff living in the Ross Sea up in the antarctic.
It sounds like a D&D sort of environment. It would be the kind of thing you would see in a Ocean Giants abode under a frozen sea. Kind of something above the Spine of the World in FR.
Large sea spiders, jellyfish with 12-foot tentacles, huge sea snails
and starfish the size of big food platters were found during a 50-day voyage,
marine scientist Don Robertson said.
Cold temperatures, a small number of predators, high levels of oxygen
in the sea water and even longevity could explain the size of some specimens,
said Robertson, a scientist with NIWA.
It sounds like a D&D sort of environment. It would be the kind of thing you would see in a Ocean Giants abode under a frozen sea. Kind of something above the Spine of the World in FR.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
A Battle for Bear Stearns?
It seems that that $2 a share offer by JPM is getting some billionaires riled up.
Wow, each of these guys lots a billion dollars on that deal? Talk about needing to diversify your portfolio a bit. In the meantime the stock keeps going up. It went from $3.76 to $5.90 in the past two days. This would be the scary part though if I was holding Bear Stock though. So you would either get $2 or nothing. I would have gone with selling at $5.90 and got out while I still could.
The Wall Street Journal reports British billionaire Joe Lewis is trying
to amass support among investors looking for an alternative to the JP Morgan
(JPM) takeover. According to Bloomberg, the Bear debacle has cost Lewis $1.19
billion - almost half his net worth. He called the $2 per share offer
"derisory."
Other Bear shareholders, such as hedge fund Thunderstorm Capital and
former Bear chairman Jimmy Cayne, are reportedly teaming up with Lewis to oppose the merger. Cayne is said to have lost almost a billion dollars since Bear's
stock price peaked at $171.51 last year.
Wow, each of these guys lots a billion dollars on that deal? Talk about needing to diversify your portfolio a bit. In the meantime the stock keeps going up. It went from $3.76 to $5.90 in the past two days. This would be the scary part though if I was holding Bear Stock though. So you would either get $2 or nothing. I would have gone with selling at $5.90 and got out while I still could.
On the other hand, fighting the deal in the hopes of a better bid is a
long shot, as the merger was written to preclude counteroffers. Blocking the
deal risks bankruptcy proceedings that could put equity holders at risk of
losing everything.
Hillary Passes Obama in Latest Poll
It seems that Hillary is starting to pass him again.
I think the idea of having an America hating preacher as spiritual mentor to the President just doesn't sit well with Democrats. The Dems are always have trouble looking patriotic and it would be easy for McCain to exploit this perceived anti-American bent of the far left in order to beat Obama.
The March 14-18 national survey of 1,209 Democratic andI think it is because of those statements brought to light about the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. This kind of talk about race and the "original sin of slavery," Jim Crow, etc. just doesn't play well with color-aware Democrats.
Democratic-leaning voters gave Clinton, a New York senator, a 49 percent to 42
percent edge over Obama, an Illinois senator. The poll has an error margin of 3
percentage points.
I think the idea of having an America hating preacher as spiritual mentor to the President just doesn't sit well with Democrats. The Dems are always have trouble looking patriotic and it would be easy for McCain to exploit this perceived anti-American bent of the far left in order to beat Obama.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Time to go Short Oil?
As I have been thinking recently it seems that oil and other commodities are finally starting to go back to the downside.
I was thinking that record oil prices were mostly speculation and did not reflect actual supply and demand of oil at all. It seems to be the same way in the gold market as well. They are all contingent on further dollar weakness and I don't see that happening with the FED hopefully done lowering rates for a while. We saw the dollar rise a bit against the Euro and the Yen today and I think dollar should be getting stronger as we go along.
Jeff Macke advised viewers to sell the U.S. Oil FundETF and the
streetTracks Gold Shares ETF.
Give those names a break, he said. As the Federal Reserve thinks of
other means besides lowering interest rates to solve the liquidity crisis,
commodities won't be as good of an inflation play, he said.
I was thinking that record oil prices were mostly speculation and did not reflect actual supply and demand of oil at all. It seems to be the same way in the gold market as well. They are all contingent on further dollar weakness and I don't see that happening with the FED hopefully done lowering rates for a while. We saw the dollar rise a bit against the Euro and the Yen today and I think dollar should be getting stronger as we go along.
Heather Mills is a Scumbag
The more I read about this case the more it looks like she just strait-up robbed Paul McCartney. Check out this line item in her attempted $250 million money grab.
This should show you why celebrities force people to sign prenups. Greedy gold-diggers like Mills should be rightly ridiculed when when they call themselves "activists" just to fly around in helicopters and private planes. I hope she gets booed when she judges the Miss USA Pageant.
Mills, a self-proclaimed activist, also claimed she would need $1.25 millionYup, she tried to get $1.25 million a year to charities and then tried to take 79% of the money to fly around in helicopters and jets to get to "appearances." Why doesn't she just give the entire amount to charities and causes and fly coach instead?
a year to give to charities, but admitted she would be using $985,000 of that
amount for traveling to appearances via helicopters and private jets.
This should show you why celebrities force people to sign prenups. Greedy gold-diggers like Mills should be rightly ridiculed when when they call themselves "activists" just to fly around in helicopters and private planes. I hope she gets booed when she judges the Miss USA Pageant.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Visa Sets Record IPO at $17.8 billion
It looks like it will be priced at $44 a share and has the ticker symbol V.
I'm hoping if it pops off of the opening it will only go to about $60 or so. Or maybe it will just stay in the $50 range for most of the day. However, anything less then $50 is going to be a steal. After all MasterCard IPOed at about $45 or so IIRC and it is now trading at $210.25. I think Visa will be even bigger then MasterCard. In Visa you still have all of the fees while the banks get to shoulder the risks.
Visa Priced the hotly anticipated offering of 406 million shares at $44 a
share, topping the previously estimated range of $37 to $42 a share. Visa shares
will trade on the New York Stock Exchange starting Wednesday, under the symbol V.
I'm hoping if it pops off of the opening it will only go to about $60 or so. Or maybe it will just stay in the $50 range for most of the day. However, anything less then $50 is going to be a steal. After all MasterCard IPOed at about $45 or so IIRC and it is now trading at $210.25. I think Visa will be even bigger then MasterCard. In Visa you still have all of the fees while the banks get to shoulder the risks.
Obama Brings Up the Race Issue
I guess this is all to deflect the venom spewed by Rev. Jeremiah Wright. I'm glad Obama was quick to condemn that sort of hate speech.
I think Wright forgot that the Democratic Truman Administration was the ones that decided to drop the bomb that ended WW2. Also the same Truman administration recognized Israel as well and advocated their right of self-defence against terror. Also it was the Reagan Administration that imposed economic sanctions on South Africa in a bid to end Apartheid.
Finally, all of these things (the support of Israel was just an Al-Quida scapegoat) had nothing to do with 9/11 at all. In fact I hope someone tells Rev. Wright that it wasn't Japanese, or Palestinians or Black South Africans that flew those planes into those buildings.
"We bombed Hiroshima, we bombed Nagasaki, and we nuked far more than the
thousands in New York and the Pentagon, and we never batted an eye," Wright
said. "We have supported state terrorism against the Palestinians and black
South Africans, and now we are indignant because the stuff we have done overseas is now brought right back to our own front yards. America's chickens are coming home to roost."
I think Wright forgot that the Democratic Truman Administration was the ones that decided to drop the bomb that ended WW2. Also the same Truman administration recognized Israel as well and advocated their right of self-defence against terror. Also it was the Reagan Administration that imposed economic sanctions on South Africa in a bid to end Apartheid.
Finally, all of these things (the support of Israel was just an Al-Quida scapegoat) had nothing to do with 9/11 at all. In fact I hope someone tells Rev. Wright that it wasn't Japanese, or Palestinians or Black South Africans that flew those planes into those buildings.
Monday, March 17, 2008
How to Turn $825,000 into $138 Million in 4 days
At least that is what one canny trader managed to pull off on Bear Stearns meltdown.
Those March $30 Puts are now worth $25.10 each. I think someone with a handle on how bad things were at Bear was able to put on some serious insurance. Or it could have been one of their counterparties who was getting ready to pull the plug on their trades and then rode the stock right down.
Too bad I didn't catch this trade because if I jumped on for a reasonable 10 contracts ($150) I could have made a cool $25,100. Of course you could have also taken billionaire currency trader Joe Lewis' side of the trade and took a $1 billion dollar smack in the chops as well.
This past Tuesday, when Bear Stearns(BSC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr)
was trading around $65 a share, there was huge put volume in the March $30
strike.
Over 55,000 contracts traded that day at an average price of
15 cents a contract. This is an extremely unusual trade in terms of the number
of contracts and how far out-of-the money those options were at the time. This
begs the question of why someone would execute such a transaction.
Those March $30 Puts are now worth $25.10 each. I think someone with a handle on how bad things were at Bear was able to put on some serious insurance. Or it could have been one of their counterparties who was getting ready to pull the plug on their trades and then rode the stock right down.
Too bad I didn't catch this trade because if I jumped on for a reasonable 10 contracts ($150) I could have made a cool $25,100. Of course you could have also taken billionaire currency trader Joe Lewis' side of the trade and took a $1 billion dollar smack in the chops as well.
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