Hillary is Starting to Sound Shrill

I think Hillary may be entering the last throws of her campaign.

Clinton also raised Obama's use in his campaign speeches of words first
uttered by his friend, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick.

"If your candidacy is going to be about words then they should be your
own words," she said. "...Lifting whole passages from someone else's speeches is
not change you can believe in, it's change you can Xerox."

The debate audience booed.

Obama said the entire controversy was evidence of a "silly season"
that the public finds dispiriting.

Yes the public does find this sort of thing dispiriting. The politics of slash-and-burn should be a thing of the past but Hillary keeps going back to it again and again and it is costing her. She always tries to play the bulldog roll but it just doesn't work anymore. I think the heady ideas that Obama is peddling trumps the so-called "politics of personal destruction" that the Clintons seem to engage in. It just seems that she is putting on the Wicked Witch of the West hat now that everything else didn't seem to work. Maybe she and the New York Times can cook up a fake sex scandal to hit Obama with.

The Obama Economic Plan: Case by Case

I was checking out Obama's economic plan since that is what will probably affect my October decision-making process whether to actually vote for the guy or not. Some of the stuff looks very interesting and could be great for certain stocks going forward:

1. Provide Middle Class Americans Tax Relief: Obama will create a new "Making Work Pay" tax credit of up to $500 per person, or $1,000 per working family.
This seems like a pretty good deal depending on where he will draw the "middle class" line. If it is people making less then 100k a year or something then sign me up. If it is for people making like 20K or less then I am 100% against it.

2. Simplify Tax Filings for Middle Class Americans: Obama will dramatically simplify tax filings so that millions of Americans will be able to do their taxes in less than five minutes.
I'm not sure how he is going to do this but if I don't have to fill out that damn list of gains and losses on investments then I am all for it. Also the idea that the government will fill out a tax form for you is fraught with possible errors and omissions. I can see the government short changing you on a refund and you not contesting it because after all you did get a refund. In any case the current 1099EZ is a massive joke and it seems is only good for college students or part time workers so that does need some reform.

3. Fight for Fair Trade: Obama will fight for a trade policy that opens up foreign markets to support good American jobs.
These suggestions seem to be to get rid of NAFTA and try to force open foreign markets for our goods. He also wants to pressure the WTO to stop unfair tariffs and other things. As long as he isn't a trade protectionist then this stuff doesn't seem too bad on the surface.

4. Technology, Innovation and Creating Jobs: Obama will encourage the deployment of the most modern communications infrastructure to reduce the costs of health care, help solve our energy crisis, create new jobs, and fuel our economic growth.
This is the red meat of Obama's economic message in my mind. He wants to double federal funding for basic research, push green manufacturing, create green technology jobs (green-collar jobs?,) and make 25% of electricity generation come from renewable sources by 2025. This would be a massive boost to the solar industry and should push clean coal initiatives as well. So an Obama presidency would mean that First Solar and Sun Power and other solar stocks would go through the roof. However some of these renewable sources better be nuclear though. If Obama is anti-nuclear energy then I am against him. We can't reach these goals with solar energy alone.

He also wants to create more next generation broadband, enforce net neutrality, and push more broadband to rural areas. If Obama creates broadband penetration rates nearly as high and a network that is as fast as it is in South Korea then his potential presidency would be a great success. It is a disgrace that a technology that we pretty much invented is such a joke compared to what they have in other countries. If he does creates a "Broadband for Everyone" initiative then that will actually sway my vote.

5. Labor: Obama will strengthen the ability of workers to organize unions. He will fight for passage of the Employee Free Choice Act. Obama will ensure that his labor appointees support workers' rights and will work to ban the permanent replacement of striking workers. Obama will also increase the minimum wage and index it to inflation to ensure it rises every year.
I don't like this one at all. Increased labor strife is something this nation does not need. This would be bad for all sorts of industries from fast food to garbage men. Let's say the US is hit by a nationwide dock worker strike. Billions of dollars would be wasted and our country will grind to a halt just so that one small slice of workers would get a 5% pay raise or cheaper health benefits. Plus, Obama would probably not send out the National Guard to break the strike so something like this would strait-up paralyze the country. The last thing we want to do is to follow the French strike mania system.

Also tying the minimum wage to inflation would seem like a good idea but it would make companies like McDonalds and Wal-Mart raise their prices to compensate. So Americans might get hit by both regular inflation and wage inflation at the same time. Or these companies might just reduce headcount every year by 3% just to keep costs in line.

6. Protect Homeownership and Crack Down on Mortgage Fraud
Obama will crack down on fraudulent brokers and lenders. He will also make sure homebuyers have honest and complete information about their mortgage options, and he will give a tax credit to all middle-class homeowners.
Most of this stuff deals with subprime mortgages and would probably be a moot point in a few years. I have a feeling that no bank will issue a subprime mortgage that is not heavily regulated in the next 4 years. Also variable rate subprime mortgages are now synonymous for pain and foreclosures so most consumers wouldn't sign up for them again under any circumstances.

7. Address Predatory Credit Card Practices: Obama will establish a five-star rating system so that every consumer knows the risk involved in every credit card. He also will establish a Credit Card Bill of Rights to stop credit card companies from exploiting consumers with unfair practices.
This seems like a very good idea to me. I think many consumers are still mystified by credit and don't know that it usually takes decades to pay off their credit card bills if they pay the minimum every month. It would be nice to just sign up for a so-called 5 star credit card and now that the spending limit would always be set to $10K and the interest is always 18% or something like that. This would be bad of MasterCard and some banking stocks though since some revenue and most fee growth will go out the window.

8.Reform Bankruptcy Laws: Obama will reform our bankruptcy laws to protect working people, ban executive bonuses for bankrupt companies, and require disclosure of all pension investments.
The bankruptcy law reform would allow a person to file for a "medical bankruptcy" and it might be problematic. Let's say your family is facing a medical crisis and depending on the criteria you could could max out all of your credit cards and buy a bunch of crap and then declare for bankruptcy and get everything for free. Also if you can forgive all of your medical expenses when you file this "medical bankruptcy" then that would have ramifications on the entire medical field. I guess the tax payers will have to pay for all of the drugs and the procedures that that person essentially got for free.

The executive bonus part makes some sense since those execs shouldn't get paid to run a company into the ground Also the pension investment part may be interesting to see what those various multi-billion dollar pension funds actually hold from quarter to quarter.

9.Work/Family Balance: Obama will double funding for after-school programs, expand the Family Medical Leave Act, provide low-income families with a refundable tax credit to help with their child-care expenses, and encourage flexible work schedules.
This seems like a bunch of pro-family stuff that doesn't apply to me. The single person has to foot the bill again so that married people with children can get even more breaks. Also expanding that Family Medical Leave Act so it hits every employer with 25 or more employees would magically make many more businesses carry only 24 employees to compensate.

Iran Still Hiding the Nuke Plans

It seems that group that wants to overthrow the Iranian government has information that Iran still still going for a nuke.

It was not possible to independently verify the NCRI claims. Mohaddessin
said his group got the information from "hundreds" of reports and sources from
within the Iranian regime, whom he did not name. He said some of the sources are
within the nuclear project itself.

I like how the AP puts hundreds in quotes and then casts immediate doubt on their findings. He did not name the sources because they would probably be tortured and murdered if they are found out. Of course the AP leaves that little fact out of the picture.

Investing in the Food Chain

This is a great article on each of the different stocks involved in the food chain. It goes from agricultural equipment manufacturers to seeds and fertilizers to farm products and biofuels to fresh produce companies. This article covers the front end (or growing end) of the product.

The three categories of the food investment chain described so far
represent the front end of the the chain, which happens to be the fastest
growing segment of the chain. Fast growth often brings opportunities for
outsized gains, but can also carry the possibility for tremendous risk, if the
"wrong" stock within a sector is selected.

AMD Hybrid Crossfire: I don't get it

I wanted to check out some competition to NVIDIAs new stable of top of the line chips and came across this article on the ATI Hybrid Crossfire. From what I can gather it is a two chip system that allows a video card plugged into a PCI-express slot and the GPU built into an AMD motherboard act as one more powerful package.

Crysis truly is the “benchmark” of any current 3D video acceleration
technology. With the RV620 video card alone, there simply was not going to be
any Crysis gaming at any reasonable settings, but with Hybrid CrossFire enabled
we were able to actually tweak out a Crysis configuration that would let you
play the game at 1024x768 with most of the visual settings on “Medium.”

It does seem that people with legacy video cards can now play state-of-the-art games on Medium visual settings. That seems like a good idea if you upgraded your motherboard so it works with the technology. I'm still not sure why you just wouldn't spring for a medium of the line video card and just play the game on lower settings without having to upgrade your motherboard. However, this part had me scratching my head:

So a Hybrid CrossFire sub-$500 computer could show up on your Uncle
Bob’s doorstep with Hybrid CrossFire enabled actually allowing him the
ability to play some real 3D games and plug in two monitors without ever
having to switch the Hybrid CrossFire mode on or off.

I'm not sure if Uncle Bob who is buying a sub $500 computer would actually try to play top of the line games on it. If he really wanted to play games you would think he would spring for a $360 Xbox360 or a $249 Wii. Also the 2 monitor-thing doesn't seem like something Uncle Bob would drop another $300 dollars on a new monitor in order to achieve.

I'm not sure what niche this Hybrid Crossfire is supposed to fill. I guess it is there for people who want to use a dirt-cheap graphics card to play games that could probably look a lot better if they just paid a few more bucks for a better card. It makes a junk card go from unplayable on the current games to barely passable for about $500 and a motherboard replacement.

Nvidia's Drop Seems Strange

I was researching Nvidia and after they brought out numbers the stock promptly recieved an 18% haircut in 2 days. I was trying to figure out the reason why and came across this article. It states that there will be a jump in expenses for Q1 of 2008. Okay, so I took a look at transcript of their earnings call to see why their expenses rose and here is what they said:

We expect operating expenses to increase quarter to quarter because of
the normal Q1 issues of less vacation in Q1 than Q4, higher FICA expense in Q1
and Q4. In addition, we expect to have approximately $7 million of incremental
expenses in Q1 that will come from acquisitions we’ve recently made.

The result is that we expect operating expenses to increase 8% to 10%.

So due to seasonality, aquisition charges of $7 million, and FICA expenses (possibly from adding 376 new people, 2/3 of which are in R&D) they will be paying 8% to 10% more in expenses. All three of these things should be 1-time deals and NVDA should be able to control them for the most part.

Also this article sites operating margin shrinkage from 46.2% to 45.7%. So I was thinking maybe they were having trouble with pricing power or something along those lines. Instead I looked at the transcript again and found this.

Gross margin for the quarter was 45.7% GAAP and 45.9% non-GAAP. This
was the first time in 13 quarters that we haven’t had a non-GAAP gross margin
increase quarter to quarter. During the quarter, we experienced some cost issues
with regard to the 8800GT, which we hope to resolve in the next two quarters.

So they had some problems with the 8800GT costs and this dropped the margin slightly. I guess saying that the problems won't be ironed out for 2 quarters is what dropped the stock so quickly. The Bear Stearns guy, Gurinder Kalra, asked what those cost issues were and this is what they said:

You know, 8800 GT was ramped probably faster than any high-end GPU in
our history. As I mentioned in my comments earlier, in just four months of
production we shipped over 2 million 8800 GTs, and this is a high-end GPU. The
die size and the number of transistors of the 8800 GT is far more than any
microprocessor you currently have -- core-two dual and otherwise. And so this is
a very complex processor and yet we ramped it incredibly hard.
We had some manufacturing challenges in the beginning and we caught it, we fixed it, and now we are going to see far better yields going forward. But it affected our cost in Q4.

So they went with banging out the high end (and probably high margin) product as fast as they could while shipping almost 2 million units and costs seemed to suffer. They said that the problem was fixed for the most part and margins should be going back to normal pretty soon. I think the "two quarters of cost issues" part above didn't jive with the "manufacturing problems fixed" part and the stock nose dived because of it.

It just seems strange that increasing headcount for R&D purposes, M&A costs (from a company that allows them to bring their physics engine in-house,) people being off less (and thus working more,) and having a manufacturing problem that was supposedly "fixed" could drop the stock 18% after they said Q1 revenue would be "better then seasonal" ie better then the normal 5% drop from Q4 to Q1. In any case the stock seems pretty cheap right here at a forward P/E of only 12 and a PEG of less then 1.

Visium Asset Management and Morgan Stanley long Dendreon

And according to this article it is not a small stake.

Latta pointed out what is news is that Visium Asset Management in a
Securities and Exchange Commission filing that showed up today at www.sec.gov, has taken a 10 percent stake in Dendreon. That filing from the New York hedge fund is dated February 12th, but it only appeared online today. The delay isn't unusual. And then, coincidentally, just as I was checking out the filing and reaching out to Visium for comment another filing showed up. This one's from Morgan Stanley which reports that as of Dec. 31, 2007 it took a 6.5 percent stake in DNDN.

So these two firms scooped up 16.5% of the outstanding Dendreon shares while everyone else seems to be shorting the crap out of it? Visium seems to be a biotech hedge fund according to their holdings. Also looking at their holdings it seems that a 10% stake in DNDN might be one of their top 5 largest positions as well. That is a big bet on a stock that pretty much is in limbo until they either get an FDA approval or they partner up with a larger firm.

Obama May Push GOP to the right

It sure seems that way to me and this article confirms it.

Obama is drawing so many moderates and independents to the Democratic race
from what would normally be the ranks of the Republican electorate that 1) he's
rolling up large margins and stitching together a broader coalition, and 2) he's
making the Republican electorate comparatively smaller, and more
conservative.

I think Obama broadly appeals to anyone that isn't far right who wants a change in the country. He seems to be above the partisan fray and could be the kind of guy that won't be as devisive as Hillary. I think a choice between McCain and Obama will come down to experience versus a hope for change.

Do you want an experienced hand that has been in the fight for years but differs from Bush in several key ways or a fresh face that hasn't really been battle tested yet? We might even be able to afford some-on-the-job training as long as Obama would be willing to admit he is wrong and right the ship.

A battle between Hillary (who might be on her last legs) and McCain would be the same old partisan fist fight we have seen before. I think McCain would win comfortably if that would happen since people underestimate how much Hillay is hated by the right.

Perma Bear Says "Great Depression" might be near

It seems that we are really at a true bottom when this guy is saying that the banking and housing sector might cause another Great Depression.

"Avoiding a depression is, unfortunately, going to have to involve
either a large, quasi-permanent increase in the budget deficit -- preferably tax
cuts -- or restoring overvaluation of equity prices," Connolly said on
Monday.

"If conventional monetary policy is not enough to produce that result,
the government may have to buy equities, financed by the Fed," Connolly
said.

The problem is that the P/E ratio of the DJIA in 1929 was 32.6 while the P/E ratio of the DJIA today is only 15.22. So you could make a case that equities were overvalued in 1929 while they are only slightly overvalued today since the 100 year historical average PE is 14. So I'm not sure where he comes up with stocks are so overvalued that the US government needs to prop them up by deficit spending in order to buy equities? I guess this Connolly guy is short the market or long gold or something or is just generally all-around bearish.

Lucas goes back to the Star Wars Money Pot

Now they may create an Attack of the Clones animated feature film and maybe a live action TV show as well.

Though creator George Lucas once said that Revenge of the Sith would be his final Star Wars film, he has apparently since reconsidered.
"I felt there were a lot more Star Wars stories left to tell," Lucas said in a statement. "I was eager to start telling some of them through animation and at the same time push the art of animation forward."

Actually he means "I need a brand new 787 to tool around in and the only way to make that happen is to tell more crappy Star Wars stories."

Modu Mobile Might Kill Cell Carriers

This article makes it out to be a potential IPhone killer.

The product looks revolutionary. The Modu Mobile is a tiny cellphone,
1.5-ounce, 2.8-inch-long, that can be inserted into multiple jackets that
enhance its functionality. In other words, the modu has the basic functionality
of a cell phone: antenna, cellular radio, contact list, text messaging
capabilities and a battery. It is packed with a large memory stick (1 G), that
carries over your personal data (contacts, photos, music and etc), onto other
devices, using low priced “jackets” or “sleeves” such as car stereos, photo
frames, car navigation systems, clocks, toasters, laptops, cameras and
more.

This sounds like an interesting idea and we may finally get Uhura's earpiece invented. However I'm not sure that anyone would buy a Garmin or a car stereo with a built in cell phone. The portability of this thing might in-fact spawn a new class of cell phone and might be a game changer in the telecom space.

This device could be made into a cell phone with a USB slot that you can plug into your PC so it would be easier to share files and load the phone up with music. The real game changer comes when a company offers a service like Vonage which allows you to connect cell calls over the internet. This Vonage branded phone would then fit into a handset "jacket" made by Nokia that when connected wirelessly to the internet allows you to make free long distance and local calls. You would even have unlimited text messaging for free with a Yahoo Messenger type of interface built into the site.

This company could then offer dirt cheap monthly fees (or even be fee with ad sponsorship) to compete with the current cell carriers and could even offer online data hosting for your cell phone media at a reduced price. The only thing you would really need is wireless always on broadband and you would be all set. In fact you might even think that the idea of minutes or calling off-peak as a thing of the past. I can see Google getting into this space in a heartbeat.

Buffett Offers to Pick the Carcass of Bond Insurers

It seems that Buffett is up to his old tricks again.

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said on Tuesday he has made an
offer to the three top bond insurers to reinsure $800 billion (409.8 billion
pounds) in municipal bonds, but one of the struggling companies has rebuffed the
plan while the other two have yet to respond.

Of course those bond insurers know that their muni insurance is pretty solid and the risk of defaults on munis are at 1% or so. They also know that insuring munis are about the only thing left at these companies that is still profitable. If you strip that away all they would have left are a bundle of worthless CDOs. And without the fees generated by the munis, and left with the downgraded AAA ratings that they would get from losing their low risk/high reward business, these companies could quietly fail. That is not such a bad idea for Buffett since he is opening his own bond insurer.

There is nothing better then cutting away the most profitable part of a business then perhaps getting a near monopoly in muni underwriting all while looking like the savior of Wall Street. No wonder this guy is a billionaire.

Hannah Montana Chastized for not Wearing Seatbelt

It is good to finally see a young celeb get scolded for something other then getting pregnant, getting a DUI, underage drinking, or taking a bunch of nude photos of themselves. Miley Cyrus is so wholesome that they have to dig down deep to get anything on her. She can really be a power player that helps kids as she grows older.

In a blog item posted Monday, Consumer Reports magazine says
15-year-old superstar Miley Cyrus, who plays Hannah Montana on television, is
seen in her new movie riding without a seat belt in the back seat of a Range
Rover.

Is the Bottom in on the Market for 2008?

Hmm sometimes all the gloom and doom of the recession talk results in a glimmer of opportunity according to Raymond James Chief Investment Strategist Jeff Saut.

So where does all this leave us? Well, it seems to me as though the
equity markets put in a bottom of at least near-term significance on January
23rd when the DJIA recorded its second largest daily point swing in history from
down more than 300 points in the morning to up nearly 300 points on the closing
bell (the largest daily point swing since July of 2002). Indeed, I think
the envisioned “selling stampede” ended on that date in session 18 of the
typical 17- to 25-session “selling stampede” and are treating those late-January
“lows” as the internal lows until proven wrong.

Hmm, there really are some real bargains in the market and just about all of them are going up off of that January drop off point. If the charts retest or break through that point then we should look out below. But until that happens we might be able to get in on some really great stocks for cheap.

Yahoo spurns Microsoft

I pretty much figured that this would happen so that Yahoo can drive up their asking price.

As expected, Yahoo's board unanimously decided to spurn Microsoft after
concluding the offer -- originally worth $44.6 billion or $31 per share --
"substantially undervalues" one of the Internet's prized franchises. The
cash-and stock deal is now valued at about $40 billion, or $28.91 per share,
because of a drop in Microsoft's market value.

The fear now is if MSFT decides to walk away without a proxy fight. I think Yahoo's shares would tank and MSFT will probably go back to pre-merger prices. Could be an interesing trade there depending on how you think things will go.

Hillary Administration could be Co-Presidency

These are some words that really gets me on the Obama bandwagon when it comes to the Democratic primary.

If his wife is elected president, Clinton said he will not interfere with
her work or her advisers."I will do what I'm asked to do," Clinton said. "I
will not be in the Cabinet. I will not be on the staff full-time. I will not in
any way interfere with the work of a strong vice president, strong secretary of
State, strong secretary of Treasury. "I will do what we've always done for
each other," he said. "I will let her bounce ideas off me. I will tell her what
I think."

He will not be on the staff full time? So does it mean that he will be on it half of the time? I guess you can't prevent him from being in the White House giving advice or whatever. I just don't like the fact that you will be getting a package deal with a Clinton Presidency. I would have liked Hillary to distance herself from him because he has had his 8 years at the helm. Now it is now time for someone else to take the stage.

Thanks Congress, I am $600 Richer

It is always a good bipartisan measure to put an extra $600 in my pocket.

The Senate's 81-16 vote capped more than a week of political maneuvering.
The logjam broke when majority Democrats dropped their demand that rescue
proposal offer jobless benefits, heating aid for the poor and tax breaks for the
home building and energy industries.GOP senators blocked those ideas, but
agreed to add $300 rebates for older people and disabled veterans to a $161
billion measure the House passed last week.

I think I'll use mine to either buy a Blue Ray DVD player or maybe defray the cost of a new laptop. Or maybe I'll simply mess up the system and save it.

Scandal Rocks Oxford Debating Team

Upon reading this article you would think there would be some election violence with the overturning cars, and burning offices in the near future.

But its most recent election has degenerated into farce. It started
with the November victory of Krishna Omkar, and a prompt challenge from
runner-up Charlotte Fischer, who, with the help of a lawyer, managed to convince
investigators that Omkar should be disqualified for violating election
rules.

"Its a tragedy that this has happened," said Jason Keen, a history
student who backed Omkar. "One person wins, one person loses, and the person who
loses steps aside. But Charlotte didn't want to step aside."

Cramer Cites Disney as a Buy

It seems that Cramer agrees with me that Disney is a pretty good buy according to this article.

Cramer praised CEO Bob Iger's assessment of the entertainment company's
strong theme-park revenues. "Iger said something fabulous on that call. ... It's
perfect right now. The economy's weak, so they don't have enough money to go
overseas." Cramer also noted that thanks to a weak dollar, people are coming to
the U.S. to vacation.

So people would rather go to Disney World instead of Europe so that they can keep their family vacations cheaper to save money. You still have to go on a vacation but driving to Orlando is much, much cheaper then flying to Paris. I wonder if those new stiff passport restrictions are keeping Americans away from the Caribbean and headed to Disneyland instead?

Now that, coupled with Europeans taking advantage of the weak dollar, is pumping up their theme park revenue even when the economy is slowing. Hmm, Disney may be a pretty decent recession hedge the more you look at it.

Obama Says he has better chance against GOP

I agree with him as well.

"I have no doubt that I can get the people who vote for Senator Clinton. ...
It's not clear that Senator Clinton can get all the people I'm getting," he
said.

I think many Democratic leaders underestimate how hated Hillary is by many on the Right. The GOP would pull out all the stops to try to "Swiftboat" her. The bad part is that she has had lots of involvement in various scandals over the past 30 years. It would be easy to derail her whole campaign with some Rose Law Firm crap from the 70s or more Vince Foster details.

Obama on the other hand seems to have admitted all of his youthful wrongdoing and would be would hard to hit with a scandal. The GOP would have to run against his inexperience in comparison to McCain and maybe even on the actual issues.

I can see a Hillary v. McCain election being a political cage match with both sides carpet bombing each other. I can just see a young Clintonista trying to dig up stuff about McCain's Vietnam years and blowing her campaign up with it. They can barely stop the people on their own side from saying whatever they want against Obama. Just wait until a GOPer gets in their crosshairs. So you can just imagine a Far Left operative (that of course holds all Vets in contempt) trying to go after his POW status or saying the Vietcong gave him special treatment or some other strait-up lie and killing her campaign with it.

Perhaps an Obama v. McCain election will come down to the issues and experience v. inexperience, age v. youth, and instead of about made up charges and dirty tricks. Perhaps the election would be a germane and respectful dialogue instead of everyone shouting at each other Fox News style. It seems Obama has already started down this road by actually campaigning in the Red states which have been forsaken by the Dems. Could Obama be the Great Uniter? Could he be the Dems version of Ronald Reagan? It would be interesting to see that after 4 years a pro-security, pro-renewable energy, pro-amnesty voter would be known as an Obama Republican.

Disney Smashes Numbers; Parks Do Well

I guess the House of Mouse hasn't yet felt any of the ill effects of the economic slowdown.

Net profit dropped to $1.25 billion, or 63 cents per share, from $1.7
billion, or 79 cents per share, in the year-earlier quarter, when results had
been boosted by the sale of interests in Us Weekly and E! Entertainment. Revenue
rose 9 percent to $10.5 billion.

The 63 cents per share earnings topped Wall Street's average target
of 52 cents, according to Reuters Estimates.

The best news from this earnings report is this I think:

“People have not stopped or slowed down when it comes to taking family
vacations,” Iger said at a September conference, Bloomberg reports. “Some people will keep the family vacation and not replace a faulty refrigerator. That’s an
interesting phenomenon.” And, for Disney, a profitable one.

This is something that is totally opposite to what you would expect from a slowing economy. Why would people go to Disneyland for a one time trip instead of buying white goods that they will use everyday?

I guess it the difference is between having a genuine experience that you can't get anywhere else versus buying something mundane that they you can simply put off until some time in the future.

I mean a person's kids are only in that sweet spot for loving Disneyland for a short period of time before the real world slams them down. They have that moment of "Disney Magic" for a few years before they have to worry about getting into a good college, school shooters, drugs, sexual pressure, depression and all of that other stuff that teens have to worry about.

Vitamin B-9 Reduces Dementia by 3x

It seems that folate which is in leafy vegetables such as spinach, turnip greens, lettuces, dried beans and peas and in certain fruits reduces the risk of dementia by 3 to 1.

An study published last year in The Lancet showed an improvement in
short-term memory, mental agility and verbal fluency among persons over 50 who took a daily dose of 800 micrograms (mcg) of folic acid. The US recommended daily dose is 400 mcg.

This vitamin seems to make new cells so I guess it stops the brain from not creating new cells to replace the ones that are lost to aging.

Hillary Exausted and Teary-eyed by Nomination Push

It is so hard to feel bad for someone as cool and calculated as Hillary but this article sure makes her sound like a wounded warrior stumbling down the last mile, with tear-streaked eyes, into an uncertain future.

Clinton, voice almost gone, worn down by sleepless nights and days on
the campaign trail, wiped a tear from her eye as she visited Yale University,
where her political journey started as an earnest 1970s student in bell-bottom
pants.

"Well I said I would not tear up, already we are not exactly on the
path," said Clinton, 60, in an emotional moment, as she battled Obama for votes
in northeastern Connecticut and Massachusetts.

I would normally feel sorry for someone in this situation but the Clintons make it so hard to separate genuine emotion from cold, hard election calculus. You always have a sense that one of her operatives is whispering in her ear that she needs to cry again just so that she can carry the womens vote. That same grubby-handed pollster waves a printout that says women 25-55 are 61.625% are likely or very likely to vote for a woman who wears her emotions on her sleeve then not. She then cries on command like a battle-hardened election robot in order to win Connecticut and Massachusetts.

That is why I want the Dems to elect Obama so that there is a general decrease in cynicism in America. I would genuinely feel compassion for a guy like Obama if he was teary eyed at his return to Punahou or inner city Chicago or wherever his dream of being President started. It sure will be nice to finally put those devisive Clinton (and Bush) years behind us.

J. Michels Video Game Index 2/4/08

-$873.78 -2.18%

J. Michels Uranium Index 2/4/08

-$970.01 -1.63%

Insiders Go Long E*Trade

It seems like a nice bottom has been put in at E*Trade now that 10 insiders are buying in at $4.06 or so a share.

"And for them to be buying after a one-month triple digit move speaks
volumes on confidence, which may explain the latest surge in option volume.
Sure, the stock took a major dive in 2007, but that's because it got itself
involved in a business it shouldn't have been in -- subprime.

They seem to have exited that flawed business to the tune of $2.2 billion and are instead focusing on their core business. IMO they need better research but other then that I really have no complaints with the company. What I think they should do is to buy out an independent research firm and start offering recommendations based on that research. It should be something like an E*Trade Recommended List that investors can check out for themselves and buy as a basket of stocks.

Social Networking on the Downslope?

It sure seems that way from reading this article.

The average length of time users spend on all of the top three sites is on the slide. Bebo, MySpace and Facebook all took double-digit percentage hits in the last months of 2007. December could perhaps be forgiven as a seasonal blip when people see their real friends and family, but the trend was already south.The story year-on-year is even uglier for social networking advocates. Bebo and MySpace were both well down on the same period in 2006 - Murdoch's site by 24 per cent. Facebook meanwhile chalked up a rise, although way off its mid-2007 hype peak when you couldn't move for zeitgeist-chasing "where's the
Facebook angle?" stories in the press and on TV.

So does this mean that these social networks are starting to falter and the $15 billion price tag for Facebook seems overvalued? It sure seems that way from reading these numbers. I think Mark Zuckerberg should have went public in 2007 and reaped the big money buyout when it was right there in front of him.

I think you may need to chalk this all up to the fact that people might have thousands of semi-friends/strangers in their Friends List on MySpace but maybe only a handfull of real friends. They can easily keep in touch of those real friends without having to resort to MySpace to round them all up. There is just not enough things to do on MySpace or Facebook to keep people interested once they have their profile how they want it.

You also couple this with the fact that everyone from presidential candidates to C-list celebs have a Facebook and MySpace profile. These profiles were once something that a teen could feel special about since only they knew about it, could create it, or have even heard about it. It was "their thing." Now that MySpace is hosting debates, selling adspace, and generally getting into the mainstream it isn't new or special anymore. And judging by Facebook's really scary fundamentals they may even have more in common with Peapod and Pets.com then in Google or Ebay.

What Will Come from Microsoft's Buyout of Yahoo

This announcement was many months in the making but it looks like Microsoft will be buying out Yahoo to the tune of $45 billion. The article above gives us some color on what might happen when the two companies merge. The first thing that will probably happen is that MSN will probably get folded into the Yahoo site so MSFT will stop losing money there. This change would be very intriguing though.

Eventually, a teamed-up Yahoo and Microsoft might be able to rethink the PC
desktop — where Windows still runs 90 percent of the world's PCs — so that
Internet data such as stock prices, sports scores and weather are automatically
baked in.
"We all have our home page because we have a concept of a home page," Campbell said. Before long, "we may not have a home page — it might just be the background of my desktop. There's no reason why Microsoft can't push this
another level."

So Yahoo might provide the userbase and content for a web and non-web collaboration type of software. So it will be kind of like those Vista Gadgets but for the entire PC and not just the Sidebar. It would be a kind of internet dashboard built into a web enabled PC.

Maybe the next Office or Windows will be an all-online version where there will be an option to store your documents, bookmarks, settings, etc. in a Yahoo Data Center (a MSFT one would not be trusted) and sped up using virtualization software. The icons on your PC will simply connect to software running somewhere "in the cloud" that doesn't have to be upgraded or patched at the PC level since that will all be done on the server. It would be kind of like World of Warcraft servers but for Corporate IT and your avatar is yourself. You could even have complicated Database software or e-mail where both the software and the data files are both stored at the Yahoo data center. You could also have everything searchable with Yahoo's software. It would be a Salesforce.com for productivity suites.

Then you add connectivity from any device be it cell phone, smart phone, laptop, set-top box, etc. then you will have "One Homepage to Rule Them All" accessible 24-7 from any broadband connection in the world. So this Yahoo/MSFT OS combo will not be some POS software that slows down your PC like Vista but instead it will be an always-on Web 2.0 productivity device.

J. Michels Video Game Index 2/1/08

+$278.78 +0.70%

J. Michels Uranium Index 2/1/08

+$4,120.00 +7.42%

J. Michels Video Game Index 1/31/08

+$765.00 +1.96%

J. Michels Uranium Index 1/31/08

+$2,470.01 +4.66%

Interesting Story About Patriots Football Guru Ernie Adams

This is a very interesting story about a guy that helps Bill Belichick become the genius coach that he is. He is Belichick's lifelong friend from high school and is a true football scholar.

So, every week, the Patriots get the kind of analysis that only
high-powered hedge funds or, say, NASA can afford. "Nine times out of 10,"
Bissinger says, "Ernie sees something nobody else sees."
That memory and those hours of studying film make him an unparalleled resource for assistant coaches. Want to know what a team does, and why? Want to know what a team has done on third-and-short in the red zone in the past 10 years on the road? Ask Adams. He'll know.

This article really makes this Ernie Adams seem like the secret weapon that will get the Patriots their undefeated season.

I'm still hoping the Giants keep the game close but I am backing the Pats just so they can shut up those fools on that 1972 Dolphins team. There has been no bigger bunch of full-of-themselves-asses in professional sports as this story attests. I would just love for them to keep that champagne that they pop whenever the last undefeated team loses on ice forever. If the Pats win this game then in 5 years only football historians and Dolphins fans will even remember these annoying losers.

Spears Taken to Hospital in Motorcade

Now this is a waste of taxpayer money.

Hours earlier, shortly after 1 a.m., a motorcade nearly the length of a
football field pulled away from Spears' residence. Along with the ambulance, it
included police on nearly a dozen motorcycles, in two cruisers, and two
helicopters following overhead.

So we have uniformed officers, motorcycle cops, and helicopters trying to keep Spears safe from paparazzi? Are there any crimes in LA that they would rather be investigating instead of guarding this same person over and over? Maybe they were there to protect the EMTs and other bystanders from the stupid-assed stalkerazzi. In any case I really hope that LA County bills Spears for this kind of special treatment. Also they need some laws in place so these vultures don't circle Spears and cause a nuisance.

Weird "Spider" Found on Mercury

Now this is one funny shaped crater that the MESSENGER probe was able to find on Mercury. Scientists are baffled on why those weird channels formed after this impact. Maybe the force of the Suns gravity was pulling on the damaged area (which probably turned molten for a time) formed those lines like that. Or maybe it had something to do with magnetism because it kind of looks like what happens when a magnet spreads out iron filings.

Yahoo to Cut 1000 employees; Yang is mum

Now Jerry Yang is trying to ramp up the spending at a time when everything else at the company is lagging.

He intends to spend an extra $300m this year to try to revive the
company, according to estimates by Mark Mahaney at Citi - but he has done
little to date to explain how the money will be spent.
If investors have lost patience, it is easy to see why. Former chief executive
Terry Semel asked for Wall Street's understanding three years ago as he set out
on Project Panama, an expensive fix for Yahoo's search advertising system that
was meant to close the gap with
Google.

There are still rumors that MSFT might buy them out. If I were MSFT I would build up Live and wait to see if this turnaround effort bears any fruit. I have a feeling it might be a dismal failure. This is a climate where the price of search advertising has been dropping like a stone and people are going to social networks instead of to the internet portals.

I think Yahoo needs an injection of Web 2.0 ASAP. Maybe Yahoo should float an acquisition of Facebook or something. A bold move like that could really get their stock price back up and pull them into the Web 2.0 world. Also they *really* need to cut back on the stock photos on their pages. It looks pretty bush league for a company that has a 25 billion market cap. In the meantime the stock will languish as Google keeps eating their lunch.

FED cuts rates again BNI has good numbers

I would be willing to bet that if they didn't cut rates or cut them by only a quarter point we would see a 300 point or more drop today.

The bold, half-point reduction approved by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
and all but one of his colleagues came as President Bush and Congress raced to
enact a separate rescue package -- including tax rebates for individuals and tax
breaks for companies -- to help energize an economy in danger of
stalling.

Also the recession tell that is Burlington Northern earnings seems to be okay for the moment. They beat earnings estimates by 7 cents a share and beat on the revenue side as well. They also came out with pretty decent estimates with a low single digit growth for the 1st quarter and low double digit EPS growth for the year. There might be some slowing because they did have fewer carloads for the quarter but not as much as you might think if there was a recession on. Could this mean a soft landing for the economy?

Martians Breath Sigh of Relief

It looks like there was a near miss of Mars by a 164 foot astroid earlier. My guess is that Martian Manhunter whacked the thing out of the way.

Astronomers had hoped the fleet of spacecraft orbiting Mars would get a
chance to observe the asteroid plowing into the Martian surface. The subsequent
crater would have roughly equaled the size of the Meteor
Crater that formed in northern Arizona 50,000 years ago, with a
0.5-mile diameter. Such an impact would have also allowed scientists to study
the dust cloud from the impact.

J. Michels Video Game Index 1/30/08

-$307.00 -0.78%

J. Michels Uranium Index 1/30/08

+$595.98 +1.14%

Solar Thermal with Molten Salt?

Now this seems like a pretty cool idea in renewable energy. I was recently doing some research on what solar thermal energy companies are out there and came across this article. The idea of storing energy in molten salt kind of sounds like what a Bond villain would do.

The technology solves the problem of solar power’s intermittent
power-generation ability by storing energy in the form of heat in molten salt.
Mirrors reflect and concentrate sunlight onto a central receiver that uses
Rocketdyne’s heat transfer technology, which was originally developed for use in
liquid-fuel rockets. The extremely hot salt is then piped through another heat
exchanger, making steam that in turn powers traditional steam turbines.

This Earth2Tech site is great for reading about new green initiatives and how to make money from them. After I did well in ESLR a while back I watched as these stocks cooled down a bit and and are offering a great reentry point. I really like solar's future if Obama gets in there as well.

Take-Two Jumps after Upgrade

It seems that their turn-around is going along apace.

The analyst said he is "incrementally positive" on the stock and called
Take-Two's recent announcement of a release date for "Grand Theft Auto IV" a
"major plus." The company is launching the latest installment of its most
popular game on April 29.

Handler said the game could ship 6 million units in fiscal
2008, which ends in October, and add $1.25 to the year's adjusted earnings per
share.

I think I will be near the top of that 6 million units because the more I see of GTA4 the more I want to buy that game. Mark my words it will be the game of the year for 2008.

J. Michels Video Game Index 1/29/08

+$190.00 +0.49%

J. Michels Uranium Index 1/29/08

+$768.50 +1.49%

VMWare Gets Clubbed After Hours

I think the sheer number of deep pocketed competitors who are offering this product for free is what is getting to VMWare. It is hard to pay a PE of 166 for a company that sells a product that other companies (HP, Sun, MSFT) essentially bundle with their servers. I think VMWare might become the next Netscape if they aren't really careful.

Why Vista Failed

This is a very interesting article on why Vista has disappointed MSFT and why people are not upgrading to it in the numbers that MSFT wants.

Windows XP's end is nowhere soon, either. OEMs can ship Windows XP
through June 30, and possibly later if Microsoft grants another extension.
System builders can ship XP through the end of January 2009. There are plenty of
very good XP applications, too, and not enough native Vista apps. XP will be
competing with Vista for a long time yet, and stalling the Vista conversion
process.

Could Credit Default Swaps Tank the Market?

They just might according to this observation. So I decided to check out what the hell these CDSs were and they found out that it could be quite scary if they failed.

Credit Default Swaps, or CDS, offer financial firms a quick way to offload
part or all their exposure to debt backed by state and municipal governments,
corporations, or structured debt tied to consumer loans. ‘Wrapping’ is a
technique securities underwriters use to increase the credit ratings of lower
rated debt to make it easier to sell to investors.

So if these CDSs are tied to subprime mortgages and they start to fail then the rug will actually be pulled out from under these derivatives. It is kind of like owning Call Options in a company that suddenly went bankrupt. The options suddenly become worthless pieces of paper but these things are worse because other layers of derivatives are based on these.

Also they may be "wrapped" into bundles of debt as also described in that article and stamped with a AAA rating because they were insured by MBIC and Ambac. Now that those companies might lose that AAA rating the debt they insured might also lose that rating. So essentially the "wrapped" securities could go from AAA to junk overnight. And that would be bad for every holder of one of these wrapped securities and the market as a whole.

Remember there is a $500 trillion dollars worth of these various derivatives floating around. If what they are derived from fails then a recession might turn into a depression real fast.

I think Goldman is Heavily Short this Market

Here is an interesting article that says that Goldman thinks a bailout of the bond insurers won't be much of a benefit.

"New York state insurance regulators are pushing Wall Street banks to
provide as much as $15 billion to strengthen credit-weary financial guarantors,"
James Fotheringham, Monica Gabel and Daniel Zimmerman, equity analysts at
Goldman, wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.

"The discussions are preliminary and, like their predecessors
(recall: 'SuperSIV' and The Hope Now Alliance), unlikely to produce meaningful
results," they added.

Well, one meaningful result is that companies and municipalities will be able to issue debt and 2.4 trillion might be at risk of downgrades. It might also save Wamu and Countrywide, and a few other banks from going bankrupt. Perhaps it would allow this market to avoid a massive drop as well. I think this kind of naked self-interest proves that Goldman might be heavily short this market and any significant rally might be bad for their bottom line.

Is Wilbur Ross the "Rich Dude" that Bond Insurers Need?

Wilbur Ross was buying those steel companies when they were crap, then he was into auto parts companies when they were almost bankrupt, and now maybe he might pick up those distressed Bond insurers for cents on the dollar.

But I believe what was even bigger than the rate cut for some of these banks
was the possibility that we would not have another round of big losses, this
time from a lack of insurance, because the grave dancing Wilbur Ross indicated
he is choosing a bond insurer -- or bond insurers? -- to save with a big
investment or takeover.

I think he might be after that muni insurance business because it looks like pretty easy money since municipal bond default rates are like 1.93% since 1970. It would be interesting to look under the hood at Ambac and MBIA and see just how much bad debt is on their books and how much they would have to write down. Perhaps, Ross has done this already and likes what he sees. Cramer talks about the prior bailouts failing in his article above but this bailout needs to happen or we might see some big banks going out of business since they could no longer raise debt or keep themselves in AAA status.

Why Rock Star and Guitar Hero Appeals

This is an interesting article on bars starting to have Rock Band nights so people can come and play the game as a member of a fake band. And this guy nailed the appeal that these games seem to have:

"Rock Band" and its "Guitar Hero" forebears are attracting non-gamers
as well, says Brian Crecente, editor of the gaming blog Kotaku.com and a judge
at the Spike TV Video Game Awards. He hosted a charity event in Denver where
"Rock Band" was the featured entertainer.

"It's so big because it gives people a chance who do not have musical
talent to play like they have musical talent," Crecente says. "It tricks you
into thinking you're pulling off that amazing solo."

It really does feel like you are playing the song since you are hitting the buttons and the sound comes out just like a regular song. I couldn't play a guitar to save my life but I can still play a song that I love and feel kind of like a real musician.

J. Michels Video Game Index 1/22/08

-$643.00 -1.57%

J. Michels Uranium Index 1/22/08

-$4,124.01 -8.08%

Ambac Talking to "Credible Parties"

Even though they lost $3.26 billion this past quarter they might get an economic shot in the arm from some well-heeled investor.

The executive said Ambac is "evaluating strategic alternatives with a
number of potential partners," as it seeks to maintain its "AAA" credit
rating with two agencies and regain it after being downgraded by a third.
"We're talking to very credible parties and pools of capital," Callen
said, but declined to be more specific.

I think some rich dude (Warren Buffet, Saudi Wealth Fund, George Soros, Prince Alwaleed bin Talal?) could toss them a few billion to tide them over (or buy them outright for $1.72 billion) so they don't default on that $550 billion in debt and $700 billion in munis and tank the market. This news could be a solid floor that would be put in for a bond insurer that is down 92 percent from its 12-month high of $96.10 which it was trading at last May.

There is nothing like buying a stock at $7.97 a share and just waiting for it to go back up once they clear all of that bad debt off of their books. That is assuming that they don't go bankrupt of course. I mean this industry boasts some serious margins and the Saudis or Buffet can jump in and control this industry for a song. This just might be the property that you need to buy when there is "blood on the streets."

FED cuts rates to 3.5%

It looks like the FED has finally woken up and is doing something about the economy.

The central bank opted to cut the fed funds rate, a key overnight bank
lending rate that affects all kinds of consumer loans, by three-quarters of a
percentage point, or 75 basis points, to 3.50 percent. There are 100 basis
points in one percentage point.

The only problem is if it is too little too late. They needed a .50 cut the last time around and now this make-up-measure may be building up the levees after the town is already flooded. I think the economic numbers this month will really tell and insteresting tale going forward.

Mortgage Insurer Bankruptcies to Tank Market?

Now this is some scary news from our old pal Jim Cramer.

The market's problems, he said, hinge on mortgage insurers such as MBIA
(MBI), Ambac (ABK), PMI Group (PMI) and MGIC (MTG).

Cramer said those companies are in dire straits because they don't have the money to cover $500 billion worth of bank loans mired in the subprime mess.

These companies, Cramer warned, could go "belly up" in weeks, if not days. If that happens, he predicts, the banks could quickly run out of capital, and the Dow could plunge as much as 2,000 points.

I was looking at MBIA earlier to see what these company did and found this scary proposition. MBIA along with Ambac also insures $700 billion in municipal bonds. Ambac just got downgraded to AA because of liquidity concerns and MBIA may soon follow it. Ambac couldn't come up with $1 billion in equity funding (which is scary by itself) so they got downgraded.

If these guys go to junk or worse yet go bankrupt then municipalities may not be able to raise any further capital beyond their tax bases. So to make up for the shortfall they would have to raise taxes at a time when consumers are already squeezed. So Bush's $150 billion tax stimulus may get offset by your municipality raising your property taxes to make up for a budget shortfall. Also what is worse is they won't be able to borrow out of any shortfall that would be coming down the pike.

My guess is a sovereign wealth fun will come out of the woodwork and buy these companies out for pennies on the dollar and control bond insurance in the US for years to come. If you were afraid of the UAE buying our ports then you should really fear the Saudi's controlling the issuance of our municipal bonds.

Why Do High Protein Diets Work?

It all has to do with ghrelin and how the food you eat suppress it according to this article.

"The interesting findings were that fats suppress ghrelin quite
poorly," Cummings said in a telephone interview. They fared the poorest
overall.

"Proteins were the best suppressor of ghrelin in terms of the
combination of the depth and duration of suppression," he said. "That is truly
satisfying because high proteins are essentially common to almost all of the
popular diets."

They also found that eating carbohydrates resulted in a strong
ghrelin suppression at first, but ghrelin levels rebounded with a vengeance,
rising to an even higher level.

Basically, the carbohydrates eventually made people even hungrier
than before they had eaten.

So by eating carbs you end up hungrier after a few hours then by eating the same amount of protein. I know that by eating a high protein diet you end up not being hungry at all for hours at a time. You sometimes have to force yourself to eat. I guess this is because your ghrelin level drops really low so you just don't feel hungry at all. So in the meantime your body will burn off the fat that you have stored up for energy.

J. Michels Video Game Index 1/18/08

+$178.00 +0.44%

J. Michels Uranium Index 1/18/08

+$2,230.00 +4.57%

Journal Nature wants FDA to Fess Up About Provenge

I'm glad the prestigious journal Nature is taking up the Provenge cause and asking the FDA for some answers. We have conflicts of interest, leaked letters and all sorts of dirty dealing from the FDA over this and everyone is keeping their mouth shut. This is what Nature says:

Efficacy is key here because in both Dendreon trials presented to FDA,
Provenge failed to meet its primary endpoints. In certain respects, Dendreon
shot itself in the foot by setting an over-optimistic efficacy
expectation/hazard ratio for the trial of 0.585, which no conventional drug or
chemotherapeutic has ever achieved in a comparable setting of late-stage
disease. At the same time, however, Provenge did extend median overall survival
by 4.5 months, and after 3 years, 34% of the men who received the therapy were
still alive, compared with only 11% who received a placebo.

I still don't understand how the FDA can stand in the way of a drug that keeps people alive for an extra 4.5 months and doesn't kill 300 patients a year like the current late stage therapy (Taxotere) does. The drug might even give the patient an extra 23% chance of living as much as 3 years longer. This is terminal prostate cancer we are talking about. I'd take a 23% chance of living 3 years longer any day if I only had a few months to live (and the only other therapy may strait up kill me).

This is one of the few areas where I actually like having a Democratic Congress in charge. You can bet that they want to score points against the FDA just to "get Bush." The next step is for House Energy & Commerce Committee Chairman John Dingell (D-MI) to put this topic on the Committee Agenda for 2008.

Is Food Demand Sustainable?

I looked at this stock last week and it is already up 20 points since then. It seems Jim Cramer agrees with me as well.

To conclude, Cramer reaffirmed his belief in energy and agriculture plays,
saying that Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ - Cramer's Take
- Stockpickr - Rating) was "so right." He added that Mosaic (MOS - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), John Deere (DE - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr
- Rating), Agrium (AGU - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) and Monsanto (MON - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) are still solid stocks.

Too bad these stocks are all trading in the 100s or I would own more then one right now. I'm still wary about the demand growth in India and China hitting a wall when people start to take to the streets to protest high food prices. Perhaps the Chinese government would step in to quell riots by creating artificial price controls. That would be a good way for us to recapture our Trade Surplus again. I like how the Guardian goes to the "Class War Well" again and again:

1 Rising consumption: The appetite of fast-growing nations, such as
China, is rising as economic booms cause a surge in demand for meat and dairy
products
2 Competition from biofuels: The cars of the rich are now rivalling
the bellies of the poor for corn, cane and edible oils
3 Climate change:
Global warming is putting pressure on water needed to irrigate crops.

Hey I think number 2 is in there to combat number 3. I guess the Guardian would either not have anyone drive cars or use more Fossil Fuels instead of Ethanol even though that causes global warming. It comes down to a choice between starving people and global warming.

J. Michels Video Game Index 1/14/08

+$458.75 +1.06%

J. Michels Uranium Index 1/14/08

+$1,452.00 +2.61%

Hillary with Egg on Face after ML King Remarks

What is the Dems problem with shooting themselves in the foot at critical periods. Now Hillary wades into the race issue with some seemingly anti-Martin Luther King comments. Could be the Dean Scream of her campaign?

But then Clinton came back and, far less artfully, said that King's visions
were great, but it took an experienced politician like Lyndon Johnson to get
them enacted. At the very least, Clinton had equated the sometimes crass master
of the legislative backroom with one of America's patron saints. (The real
problem is that Clinton seemed to put LBJ on a pedestal higher than King's.)
That was probably not her intention, but neither was this her best example in
the deeds - not - words crusade she was on. In any case, at that point, things
began to unravel.

All Hillary had to do was to say that it was Martin Luther King's vision which allowed LBJ to pass the Civil Rights Bill. This was an an example of one man being able to push Washington into changing the status quo.

I guess Hillary wants to be an agent of change like LBJ but without Iraq turning into post-American-involvement Vietnam with its 100,000+ people slaughtered. She should have just not compared LBJs role in passing the Civil Rights Bill (which was very important) with ML King who actually became a martyr to see the thing pass. I think dying for the cause should be seen as a bigger accomplishment then simply bullying a bunch of Senators in a cloakroom.

Actually, Hillary should have just avoided the issue all-together since race is one of those issues that the Dems have a hard time dealing with. For instance that Jena 6 thing immediately sucked Obama into its web but the GOP pretty much got a pass on the whole thing. The Race War seems to be one of those battles that the Dems seem to be continuously fighting but never has a real winner.

J. Michels Video Game Index 1/11/08

-$586.75 -1.33%

J. Michels Uranium Index 1/11/08

-$1,221.99 -2.15%

Scientists Think they Found the Source of Positrons

It seems that black holes and neutron stars destroying a regular star seem to create one hundred thousand billion billion billion billion positrons (a 1 followed by 41 zeroes) per second. So I guess a Dyson Sphere surrounding a miniature black hole that was destroying another star would provide nearly unlimited energy to a star system after all.

J. Michels Video Game Index 1/10/08

-$144.25 -0.33%

J. Michels Uranium Index 1/10/08

+$1,174.99 +2.11%

Joy Behar's Anti-Catholic Rant

Why is she allowed to keep her job after she essentially called Saints mentally ill?

I have a theory that you can’t find any saints anymore because of
psychotropic medication. I think that [in] the old days, the saints were hearing
voices and they didn’t have any Thorazine to calm them down," Behar said on
ABC's daily chatfest. "Now that we have all of this medication available to us,
you can’t find a saint anymore."

If she said this about Mohammed she would have to fear for her life. Since Mohammed did hear voices and met with Angels and such Behar would call him mentally ill as well. I guess you are allowed to bash Christians any time you want and get to keep your job. If she said this kind of thing about Jews, Muslims, Hindus or any other religious group she would be off the show within the week.

Strong Pro-Palestinian Words by Bush

Maybe the idea of billions is reparations for Palestinians kicked out of their homes might gain some traction if the world community gets behind it. Maybe a few hundred thousand a family so that they can buy a new home could be drummed up so that this Right of Return issue could be buried once and for all.

"There should be an end to the [Israeli] occupation that began in 1967," he
said. "The agreement must establish Palestine as a homeland for the Palestinian
people, just as Israel is a homeland for the Jewish people."

In comments the White House
said reflected conversations with both sides over the past month, Mr Bush
suggested the world needed to consider "new international mechanisms, including
compensation, to resolve the refugee issue".

Of course the Main Stream Media is trying to bury this story by saying that the Palestinians don't care about Bushs' visit. They need to care because Bush is the only man in the world that can get them a Palestinian State and fix their sorry state as well. Israel will only bow to American pressure and no amount of Hamas blowing stuff up will ever get them closer to what Bush could conceivably get them.

Too bad the MSM wants Bush to fail so badly that any sign of progress on anything Palestinian related is immediately downplayed into a "get-Bush" rant. It must be sad to be on the side that wants America to fail in Iraq and immediately declares the Palestinian Peace Process as hopeless.

John Kerry Flip-flops over to the Obama Camp

Could this be the end of the Obama White House run? The least Kerry could have done is endorsed his old running mate Edwards. I guess Obama just has more street cred with that Boston Patrician Yale-blue blood crowd.

Mosaic Is Growing Like a Weed!

I guess slinging fertilizer in these high corn price days is great for companies like Mosiac. These guys are boasting top and bottom line growth like they were selling virtualization software or something instead of fertilizer. I wonder how much of this price leadership is from the ethanol boom and how much of this is from Chinese and Indian demand? In any case we may see MOS challenge highs later this year if prices remain fairly high.

Mosaic (nyse: MOS - news - people ), a producer of phosphate and potash fertilizers, said its income for the fiscal second quarter of 2008 soared to $394.0 million, or 89 cents per share, compared with $65.9 million, or 15 cents per share in the year ago quarter.

Sales for the second quarter sprouted 45.0% to $2.2 billion from $1.5 billion in the second quarter of 2007.

The Plymouth, Minn.-based company beat the estimates of analyst polled by Thomson Financial, who predicted second-quarter earnings per share of
73 cents on sales of $2.17 billion.

Largest Black Hole Found in constellation Cancer

This thing tips the scale at 18 billion times more massive then our sun. It is also orbited by another smaller black hole as well as powering a quasar. Now that is one interesting system.

This particular quasar has a regularly pulsing light signal with two major
pulses every 12 years. The first two pulses were observed in the year 1994-1995,
and the first one of the next set in 2005. The observations helped astronomers
refine their computer models, predicting the next pulse would come on Sept. 13,
2007.

I wonder why this quasar is so regular like this? A massive pulse every 12 years is pretty odd. You would figure something like energy falling into a black hole would more random and chaotic and send out bursts with no pattern. But this quasar seems to shoot the energy out every 12 years. Strange stuff.

J. Michels Video Game Index 1/9/08

+$289.25 +0.66%

J. Michels Uranium Index 1/9/08

+$173.00 +0.31%

Great Article on Renewable Energy in 2008

This is a great article that is saying solar stocks are selling off due to valuation concerns but wind, biofuels, and energy efficiency stocks are the ones to watch in 2008. These are the stocks that the article mentions. I think I'll take a look at these international wind companies to see what they look like.:

Solar:
SunPower (SPWR), Evergreen Solar (ESLR), Suntech (STP), and First Solar (FSLR)
Wind:
Zoltek (ZOLT), American Superconductor (AMSC), Spain's Gamesa, India's Sulzon, Denmark's Vestas
Biofuels:
Verasun's (VSE), Pacific Ethanol (PEIX), Cosan (CZZ), Nova Biosource Fuels (NBF)
Energy Efficiency:
Orion (OESX), Itron (ITRI), Cree (CREE)
Solar Panel Electronics Plays:
Applied Materials (AMAT), Vecco (VECO)

Warner Bros. to Fire 1000

It looks like the writers strike is going to claim some victims from WB and it should get far worse then that if this thing isn't settled soon.

The studio distributed legally mandated warning notices on November 12, five
days after the Writers Guild of America walkout began, stating that recipients
could be subject to layoff after 60 days. The notices represent the first
concrete sign that the strike could trigger massive job cuts across
Hollywood.

S&P500 Drop Could Be Recession "Tell"

This commentator thinks that the S&P500s peak a few months back and the subsequent drop is indication of a looming recession. This S&P500 "tell" is 8-1 since 1953 so it might be an interesting thing to check out. So this means that we have another 7.4% more to drop before we reach that 16.9% price decline from peak to trough.

(1)The S&P 500 Index is a leading indicator par excellence. Since
the 1950s, the Index has always peaked before the peak of a business cycle, with
the 1980 business cycle being the only exception. The Index has established a
trough prior to the end of a recession without exception.
(2)The median percentage decline of the Index from its peak to trough was 16.9%.

Are We Already in a Recession?

This article makes the case that we are already in a recession as of December of last year.

At the beginning of each year I choose a theme for the forecast issue. This
year, it is "Recession and Recovery." I think we've entered a recession. As I've
been writing for over a year, I think this will be a mild recession, but the
recovery period will be prolonged and slow. My best guess now is that the
recovery will begin in the third quarter of this year. The National Bureau of
Economic Research is the final arbiter of when recessions begin and end.
However, it will be at least a year and more likely 18 months before they give
us a decision. By that time, we will be well on the road to recovery. So, let me
make my case that we are in recession.

J. Michels Video Game Index 1/8/08

-$526.00 -1.18%

J. Michels Uranium Index 1/8/08

-$1,019.00 -1.80%

Predictions 2008: Entertainment and Sports

Entertainment:
1. The Writers Strike lasts almost until spring when sweeps week ends up forcing the studios to come to a settlement or face millions in losses for the year. American Idol brings people back to network TV but not for very long as ratings drop again right after it ends. A skinny, good looking black woman wins this year's Idol.

2. The Box Office is slightly up from 2007. Top 5 Movies of the Year in Box office order are: Indiana Jones, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, Batman the Dark Night, The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, Ironman.

3. Amy Winehouse nearly ODs and actually does "Go To Rehab." Her actual singing career is officially dead by the end of 2008.

4. The Britney Spears train wreck is in the news throughout 2008. She loses custody of her kids and ends up in rehab after wrecking her car. She also rumored to be dating a woman for a while. Her actual singing career is officially dead by the end of 2008.

5. Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt break up by the end of 2008. The custody battle for Shiloh dominates the news into 2009. While it is happening Jolie adopts another child from an impoverished country. Several other high profile breakups and the resulting custody fights are the major trend for 2008 and beyond.

6. Perez Hilton, Tila Tequila and other pseudo-celebrities become big stars and VH1 becomes a star vehicle as the writers continue to strike. The pseudo-celebrity band wagon becomes filled with questionable talent because the studios lack the scripts to do anything except for reality dating shows and game shows.


Sports:
1. The Chinese Olympics are a resounding success and they end up winning the most medals. There are some protests but they are mainly low key. The Chinese government ignores these protests for the most part and are happy that the Olympics were such a big success.

2. The winners of the major sports for 2008 are: NFL: New England Patriots, NBA: Boston Celtics, MLB: Boston Red Sox. Yup, 2008 is Boston's year.

3. The steroid mess dominates the entire 2008 baseball season. Barry Bonds is convicted of lying to the grand jury and is sent to jail by the end of 2008. OJ Simpson is also convicted and is sent to jail for 15 years.

Predictions 2008: World Events and the Economy

I'll put on my Nostradamus floppy hat and make with some 2008 predictions. These come right off the top of my head:

World Events:
1. Obama wins the election and becomes President in 2008

2. The war in Iraq drags on but a plurality of the troops are recalled and the Iraqi military takes over security duties. Many scores are settled but insurgents are dealt serious blows and become a non factor by the end of the year. Chaos continues for a while but starts to settle down by the end of 2008. Iraq becomes a page 3 story.

3. Iran agrees to a nuclear framework that is negotiated mainly by France and agrees to allow inspectors into their facilities. They continue nuclear bomb research in secret. Sarkozy wins the Nobel Peace Prize.

4. Musharraf forced out under international pressure after widely contested election and violent protests. Pakistan remains a smoldering trouble spot as Al-Quida and the Taliban tries to destabilize their government.

5. Obama attempts to put out feelers toward Al-Quida but is widely criticized for the move. There are no terror attacks in the US as Al-Quida turns to Pakistan and also fighting against the Americans in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is still a page 5 story and becomes the so-called forgotten war by the end of 2008.


Economy:
1. The subprime mess is widely contained but the economy slows noticeably in the first two quarters of 2008. The economy doesn't drop into recession but the market corrects 10% but ends up recovering by the end of the year. Congress bends over backwards to save people about to lose their homes to the tune of billions of dollars. It is a subprime bailout similar to the savings and loan bailout of the 80s.

2. Technology is a laggard for the year but the Google Phone is introduced to the same fanfare as the IPhone. Apple starts to sell movies and HD programming from their IStore.

3. Alternative Energy becomes the big buzzword for 2008 with Congress passing various bills aimed at reducing energy use and increasing subsidies. Solar, Wind, and Farming stocks become 2 and 3 baggers as oil stays stubbornly high. Ethanol Stocks still get rocked on oversupply concerns. However regular Energy Stocks end up outperforming after the correction even though they have their subsidies stripped. More nuclear plants are slated for construction in 2008 as the idea of nuclear power becomes more accepted due to examples set by both France and Japan. The idea of nuclear power becoming "green" begins to take shape.

4. Sovereign Wealth funds become this years Hedge Funds as they put their billions to work while the dollar remains very weak throughout 2008. There are several high profile attempted buyouts and 10% stakes put in by the Saudi's, the Chinese, and the UAE.

5. Health Care recovers very quickly after the correction but the concerns raised by Obama's health care plan causes volatility in the stocks throughout 2008. Dendreon is passed by the FDA on their preliminary data due to pressure by Congress. They start to market their product by mid-2009.

J. Michels Video Game Index 1/4/08

-1,457.30 -3.14%

J. Michels Uranium Index 1/4/08

-$2,810.00 -4.69%

Winners and Losers from the Iowa Caucus

I agree with this article that Obama was the big winner in Iowa.

Entrance polling showed Iowa Democrats responded strongly to Obama's message of change - half of Democrats said that the top quality they were looking for in a candidate was his or her ability to bring about change, and of those
respondents, 51 percent voted for Obama. The Illinois Democrat's campaign also
clearly benefited from the surge in Democratic turnout and from the
participation of Iowans who had never before caucused.

I think his theme of change over experience is going to resonate with voters far more then Hillary realizes. He is playing the "Optimistic America" card and he is playing it to the hilt. I listened to his victory speech and he sounded a lot like JFK in his delivery and his hope to make America a better place after the so-called Bush Years.

I think his message will ring true with Americans pinched by the subprime mess, food and gas inflation, and maybe facing a recession. Optimism and hope can be a very strong reason to vote for a guy like Obama. Hillary is starting to look more and more like the candidate of the same old approach. Also the fact that she lost women 35 to 30 to Obama should really trouble her. Maybe the Oprah factor is bigger then people might think.

Britney Spears finally loses it

It looks like they committed her after a police standoff involving her kids. I think this shot of her from A Socialite's Life pretty much sums up her whole downward spiral and this event will hopefully be the "thud" at the bottom. She needs some help ASAP. Otherwise the next gurney we see her on will be on will be headed to the LA County Morgue.

Huckabee WINS IOWA!!!!

Holy crap, the Incredible Huck won Iowa! And here he is with new Secretary of Kicking Asses!

Is There a Farmland Bubble?

This is a very interesting story on how farmland might be forming a bubble in certain states.

This time around, Leuthold sees a more moderate pullback -- 15% to 20% in
three to five years -- because buyers are employing less leverage and interest
rates are lower. His main concern is that the ethanol boom rests on shaky
economic underpinnings. Without government subsidies, ethanol makes no sense, he maintains. And the subsidies could disappear because of a backlash against costs of producing the fuel -- higher supermarket prices and huge demand on water supplies. The measure was opposed by groups representing the world's
undernourished and by competing agricultural interests like the National
Cattlemen's Beef Association. Big Oil dislikes the program, too, and Big Oil has
deep pockets to lobby Congress.

I agree with him up to a point but it is pretty much based on who controls Congress and the White House for the next 4 years. If the Dems control it all I would be willing to bet that they will keep the ethanol subsidies going in the name of a greener economy. I think Big Oil may be persona non grata if the Dems getting into power. I think that undernourished group may put some pressure on the Dems but not more then the Farmers Lobby would.

If the Republicans control it you may still get extreme pressure from those big red state Farmers but Big Oil might win out in the end depending on who wins the nod. In any case renewable energy is here to stay but how much the government will pay to subsidize it is the question.

J. Michels Video Game Index 1/3/08

+$45.30 +0.10%

J. Michels Uranium Index 1/3/08

+$1,145.00 +1.95%

Monsanto's Big Numbers

The more I read about the green economy the more I think companies like Monsanto will be winners going forward. It seems like they are showing us the money as well judging by these really good numbers which blew away analysts by 11 cents a share.

The St. Louis-based company, which manufactures bio-engineered seeds and
agricultural products, smashed Wall Street's expectations with its first quarter
profit report. On Thursday, Monsanto (nyse: MON
- news - people ) said profits surged 184.4% to $256 million, or 46 cents a share,
from $90 million, or 16 cents a share, for the year ago period. Meanwhile, sales
ticked up 36.4% to $2.1 billion, from $1.5 billion. Analysts expected profits of
35 cents a share on sales of $1.87 billion.