Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Climate Change Researchers Move Goal Posts on "Social Cost" of Carbon

I love how there models are always underestimating something.
"Rich and poor countries will fare very differently when dealing with future climate change effects."
Researchers from Stanford University found that the current price of climate change is more likely six times as much, approximately $220 for every ton of carbon produced. Using a new model to calculate the number, the researchers took into account the economic damage that catastrophic climate events, like storms or crop loss, could pose to a country’s GDP over time. “If climate change affects not only a country's economic output, but also its growth, then that has a permanent effect that accumulates over time,” Frances Moore, co-author and environmental scientist, said. Their findings appeared Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change.
I wonder if their model builds in the idea that growth might be helped by some aspects of climate change? For instance more carbon in the air might increase crop yields. Also some areas that were once impossible for growing things might become available as well. Maybe building up coastlines and moving cities would create large amounts of money for heavy industry and construction. Unions would certainly love climate change.

Also the thing about growth is that it is very hard to permanently keep it down unless its bad governance or bad economic policy. The idea that this growth will never come back is quite a leap of logic. Another thing I found interesting is that these climate scientists are are projecting growth out for decades. I don't think any economist can actually do that with any form of certainty. Who knows what the world will be like, technology wise, 50 or 60 years from now? Maybe there will be cold fusion that will reduce emissions down to negligible levels? I just never understood how you can project something out for a 100 years like this.

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